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POLL: Gallup Daily Tracking


Gallup Poll

National
Obama 47, Clinton 42... McCain 58, Huckabee 24, Paul 5

Also:
Bush Approval
Consumer Confidence

 

Comments
Bree:

DOWN GOES CLINTON! DOWN GOES CLINTON!!

- Howard Cosell

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David :

Can you smelll-el-el-el-el-el-el what BARACK is cookin'?

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Andrew S. in California:

Hillary needs to pull a Romney IMO.

For the good of the party!

:)

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Bob Evans:

Agreed Andrew. They need to get their party in order for November.

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Anthony:

If this race keeps going there is a chance that Obama can lose steam and the actions of superdelegates can disenfranchise democratic voters. Its time for Hillary to bow out so we can focus on November with the best candidate.

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Andrew S. in California:

I honestly believe that Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont is Hillary's Last Stand. This race simply should not continue to April or God forbid the Denver Convention. Hillary has every right to be in the race but I can't help but think that she must be going through the exact same thing Mitt Romney came to the conclusion of when he stepped out.

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Anthony:

Hillary will probably win Ohio by a slight margin and have a close race in Texas, she won't bow out even though she'll win by such a small margin that she won't take a significant cut into Obama's lead. Shes lost 10 states in a row, its time to bow out now because shes not going to bow out after March 4th unless Obama wins both Ohio and Texas.

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Another Mike:

If she loses either Texas or Ohio and comes out behind in delegates on March 4, then she needs to drop out for the good of the party.

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Abe:

Hilary staying in has it's downsides (parroting many of the McCain attacks on Obama though none seem to stick) but it's also good for the Democrats: more contested races means more experienced Democratic field operatives and volunteers for the general election (and more involvement in the process and progressive politics generally which is good for building the party leaders locally on up).

Though Hillary will likely drop out after March 4th, her staying in is likely drawing as much positive experience and enthusiasm as her attacks which are so thin as to be transparent (and therefore have limited negative impact generally).

That being said, it sure has been a good month for Sen. Obama and he appears to be wrapping things up nicely (and without going negative which is an accomplishment in itself - something both Obama and Hillary supports on this site and politico could certainly learn from).

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Abe:

Hilary staying in has it's downsides (parroting many of the McCain attacks on Obama though none seem to stick) but it's also good for the Democrats: more contested races means more experienced Democratic field operatives and volunteers for the general election (and more involvement in the process and progressive politics generally which is good for building the party leaders locally on up).

Though Hillary will likely drop out after March 4th, her staying in is likely drawing as much positive experience and enthusiasm as her attacks which are so thin as to be transparent (and therefore have limited negative impact generally).

That being said, it sure has been a good month for Sen. Obama and he appears to be wrapping things up nicely (and without going negative which is an accomplishment in itself - something a few Obama and Hillary supports on this site and politico could certainly learn from).

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JGK:

She probably can't win the nomination without a dirty fight all the way to the convention; and a dirty win at the convention wouldn't be worth it because she would probably doom herself in the general. I think unless she gets a big win on March 4th (i.e., big in both Ohio and Texas) there will be a building pressure (including an eventual swing of superdelegates to Obama) for her to get out. There is still the opportunity for a graceful exit for her, now or shortly after March 4th. Although the more she loses the less of a chance for a graceful exit.

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Patrick:

Personally I think it's likely that McCain will beat either Obama or Clinton. But I think in the long run, Clinton is more electable since she has been wrung out for 16 years while Obama is so unknown that once he wins the nomination, negative stuff (true, false, and/or distorted) will start pouring out on a daily basis. Regardless, it's too early for Hillary to bow out. Of the 3 swing states that have entirely decided the last 3 presidential elections, 2 have not even voted yet (OH and PA) and the 3rd (FL) went overwhelmingly for Hillary but had its delegates stripped by the ridiculous DNC. She currently lead in polls in OH, TX, PA, as well as RI. The DNC is going to have to figure something out about Florida and Michigan soon: either disenfranhise them (totally unfair to the voters), seat them (unfair to Obama), give them 1/2 status (unfair to both sides), or schedule "do over" caucuses (unfair to Clinton). Hillary most likely would have won both of those states at the time (but perhaps not by as wide of margins), but maybe not now (since Obama has the "momentum" - which the media fuels). And if you replace a primary in which millions of voters voted with a caucus in which maybe 100,000 people would show up, it wouldn't be fair to Clinton or the voters. If Clinton can win in TX, OH, and PA (and likely RI, KY, and WV), she will have a good argument with the superdelegates that she won more support in the big, "blue", and swing states (not to mention in primaries vs. caucuses), even if she is behind in pledged delegates at that point. Plus by then Obama, who up until now has been the "Teflon" candidate and "media darling", will have finally gotten some scrutiny from the media, Clinton, and especially the Republican party. It's not over yet. Stay tuned...

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Andrew S.in California:

Looks like McCain is getting chewed up by the Media tonight. I don't know how infallible he can be with bad stories like this. I doubt that this story is true but this is a major development and bad publicity.

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NlCK:

@ Abe -- good point. I'm not sure a drawn-out nominating contest is bad for the party. I remember in '04 both Kerry and Edwards were beating Bush in the polls until Edwards dropped out.

Also, one of my hesitations about Obama is that he isn't battle tested. Beating back the Clinton machine for a couple months would alleviate those concerns.

As long as the final result is seen as fair, I think a little competition is healthy for the party.

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KS:

Right now, Obama is protected by the press and the party. Even Hillary has to handle him with kid gloves. If Hillary wins Texas, Ohio and PA, she will be able to make a strong case for nomination. Obama won't survive the attack from the Republicans. Just illegal drug use, cocaine, etc., which are self-incriminating evidences, will sink him.

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Rasmus:

Patrick,

Clinton leads in the democratic PRIMARIES in OH, PA and TX.
I don�t remember TX genereal-election matchups, but in PA; OBama does a much better than her, in OH it�s not so important (McCain leads Obama 1 point and Clinton 3 points).

And in MI he is leading McCAin with a 9 point margin.
in Minnesota MccAin leads Clinton five and trails Obama 15 points, and in other states it is similar (Oregon for example)

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Nick:

Rasmus,

Where do you find these general election match-up polls?

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Henry:

Fortunately Bill Clinton today effectively promised up that Hillary will drop out of the race if she loses in Texas (_or_ Ohio).

"If she wins in Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee," he said today in Texas. "If you don't deliver for her then I don't think she can. It's all on you."

It's still too early to say to surely, but at this point it looks like she's going to win by some margin in OH, and pretty much tie in Texas, perhaps squeak out an insignificant 1 point or so "win".

If that happens Obama's delegate lead will basically stay the same (due to the other contests nobody is talking about). If she still doesn't drop out at that point (after saying it all depends on March 4 and again gaining nothing on March 4), she's only doing pointless harm to the party, and will probably be further hurting her and Bill's reputation after she inevitably loses later on anyway.

On the other hand, if Obama squeaks by with a "win" in TX, we have another chance to prove Bill Clinton's dishonesty, if she does not drop out.

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Joe Keenan:

@ Nick

Check the polls section on realclearpolitics.com

Click on "Lastest Polls" and scroll down through the stuff, that's where I saw the same polls referenced by Rasmus.

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michael:

You are utterly foolish if you think it is bad for the party that Clinton go negative in a primary race against Obama. If this race ends now, Obama remains an enigma - and prospective attacks will be new when the Republicans use them. If Clinton stays in, and goes negative, there will be more time for Obama to respond to them, and negate them. Those that think a primary should be a love-in, are utterly ridiculous.

Moreover, as McCain demonstrates, so long as you are the far-off frontrunner, you don't really need to worry about whoever is licking at your heels. You can still do the nominee type things.

The other thing is that everybody is all tied up in 1968 when they think of conventions. In political leadership races (like in Canada) where conventions are common, you find they have a positive effect. They legitimize the end result, and focus media attention on the candidate - in this case, just before election season.

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Cade:

PREDICTION:

OBAMA SMOKES HER IN TEXAS (by 5-10 points)

Thus ending the race for good.

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Sam - Independent:

This doesn't strike me as analogous to the Romney decision. 1. Romney was WAY behind in delegates and unlikely to catch up. Clinton is still in this. 2. The Republican party recognized the uphill battle in the general election because of negative sentiment toward the W presidency and Republicans in general -- and needed time to rally behind one candidate. The Democratic nominee will not face those same headwinds... I think a more interesting question -- given 1 and 2 above -- is what the hell is Huckabee thinking?

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There's a new PA poll out (Franklin & Marshall) and the Democrats Abroad results are in.

"Just illegal drug use, cocaine, etc., which are self-incriminating evidences, will sink him."

Right, just like it sank George W. Bush. No one cares about teen drug use any more.

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There's a new PA poll out (Franklin & Marshall) and the Democrats Abroad results are in.

"Just illegal drug use, cocaine, etc., which are self-incriminating evidences, will sink him."

Right, just like it sank George W. Bush. No one cares about teen drug use any more.

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st paul sage:

I heard something pretty good on the radio the other day. "Old campaigns never die, they just run out of money." If there is not a clear road to pledged-delegate parity after March 4 for Sen Clinton, she will not be able to raise money and she will bleed superdelegates and she will be asked by her supporters to drop out. And like Sen Edwards, who promised after South Carolina that he was going all the way to the convention and to the White House, she will drop out.

There is no shame in this, I'm not gleeful about it, any more than I was when Biden or Richardson dropped out. But we wiil have a unified party and FL, MI and all the superdelegates will have a very good party in Denver!

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Henry:

Michael,

I assume you were addressing my post. Where did I ever suggest I thought it was bad for the primary contest for Clinton to "go negative".

I never said anything of the sort. In fact I think a highly competitive Primary contest w/ many candidates is the best thing for the party.

I said it is bad for the party, as everybody knows, for the race to continue all the way to the convention (when it's already mathematically decided). It's good for the party to have it done earlier in order to rally national support around the candidate, just as it's good on the Republican side for the same reason.

At this point even if Clinton wins in Ohio AND Texas by TEN points in both contests (by all indications she is not going to do this good), and TIES (not going to happen) in RI and VT, Obama will still lead in pledged and superdelgates total by over 70 (she would gain about 30 in the above scenario).

Look at the rest of the calendar. Even supposing the above happens, it will STIL not be possible for Clinton to catch up as the calendar moves on. Nearly all the remaining races are more in Obama's territory. Even if Clinton wins PA by TWENTY points, she will STILL be significantly behind.

Please don't try this "but we need it to continue to further battle harden Obama". As if he isn't going to get all of that from the Right as soon as the nomination process is done. And as if Clinton hasn't already dug up and tried to use everything they could find against him (this latest joke "plagiarism" charge shows how desperate they've become and how little they've found).

To Clinton's credit tonight in the TX debate she offered huge smiles when Obama made excellent points, as if even she is coming around to really liking this guy, and at the end offered conciliatory remarks, in effect letting everyone know, 'I'm losing and it's fine, Obama is a great candidate.'

It's all show at this point.

Her waiting until after March 4 to withdraw, instead of doing so now, is just a matter of pleasing some of her most rabid (read: highest donating) supporters.

She can not catch up. This thing is over.

The Democratic Party and the rest need unite around our Candidate. Accept it and move on.

Peace
Henry

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