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POLL: Gallup Daily Tracking


Gallup Poll

National
Clinton 45, Obama 44... McCain 62, Huckabee 22, Paul 5

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Consumder Confidence

 

Comments
rowjimmy:

Really surprised that Clinton is still tied with Obama given the Obama tidal wave. Of course, it makes some sense in that Democrats (based on exit polls) are generally split 50/50 for Clinton, while Independents and Republicans are 70/30 Obama.

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Arjun:

The poll seems to be going in Hillary favor. This is normal with my prediction. Hillary will be the next President of the USA. You can fool the people for some time but not all the time. By March 4 the polls will show a huge margin in Hillary's favor.

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G.G.:

Not surprised, as this may be showing what came too late to affect the Wisconsin primary -- the Michelle Obama quote about pride in her country, for example.

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PC:

The poll says has -+3% statistical error.

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John - Spokane, WA:


CNN & the rest of the media are doing their best to keep Obama alive in this race, after all of his wins, he's only up by 69 delegates with a toal of 1319. 2025 is the magic number though - Hillary is ahead in ALL of the remaining States regardless of all the media Hoopla. The numbers will tell the story.

John

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Phil:

Or this could be the same thing it was the last time the Gallup poll suddenly closed the gap between Clinton and Obama - a one time blip that will disappear again with tomorrow's numbers.

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joshua bradshaw:

does anyone know if one can see the independent days of the poll from gallup. I am curious to see what the margin was on wednessday for her to overtake him for the lead

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joshua bradshaw:

just as a tidbit of info the gallup will not put out new numbers until saturday. they will not interview on thursday

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Phil:

John -

Clinton is ahead in all of the remaining states? Really? I've not seen polls for most of them, and I'm pretty sure the poll I saw for North Carolina, the 4th largest state still to vote, had Obama ahead. I have trouble imagining him losing Mississippi too, and he sure does seem, on past performance, to be strong in the western states and in Oregon.

I assume Clinton has Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Obama, meanwhile, seems likely for Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. I'd tip him for Indiana too, simply because the northwest is basically a Chicago suburb and Indianapolis is heavily black.

Assuming all of those states go 60/40, that would give Clinton 118 delegates ahead of Obama across all her states, and Obama a 66 delegate lead across all his states. All told that would let Clinton close the delegate gap by 52 delegates. In other words, he'd still be ahead of her even with her current superdelegate lead, which is rapidly evaporating. His pledged delegate lead on her would be 104. Even Michigan and Florida won't close that.

And, notably, she's not polling 60/40 ahead in Texas and Ohio right now.

The long and short of it is this: the math is against her. She needs to dramatically change the momentum and direction of this election. Not chip away at Obama, not eke out a few victories, but dramatically change it so that she smokes him repeatedly and by large margins.

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KS:

Everyone is talking about the pledged delegates as if its the only thing that counts. The rule book says that if neither candidates get the majority, then the superdelegates decide. As simple as that. No amount of math analysis can tell us how the superdelegates would vote.

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Phil:

Regardless of the fact that they are free to vote how they choose, the fact that Clinton has lost superdelegates since February 5th while Obama has gained them and the fact that at least some of them are likely to be swayed by the idea that it may not be good for the party to go against the will of the voters makes me think that it is unlikely that the superdelegates will end up reversing the results of the primaries.

More likely, I think that Clinton will drop out of the race if March 4th is not sufficiently good for her. I would guess that a failure to win both Ohio and Texas would kill her instantly, and a failure to win both by double digit numbers would put her in severe trouble.

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Will:

Every state on March 4th is trending Obama's way. By the end of the weekend he is going to be leading in Texas & he will be on the verge of taking the lead in Ohio. Lincoln Chafee's endorsement will encourage liberal & moderate republicans (yes there are such things, in the northeast anyways)& independents to vote for Barack in Rhode Island and Patrick Leahy's organization will deliver Vermeont for him. Ladies and gentlemen, the fat lady's getting ready to sing.

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vicqiui coon:

I sure hope Hillary will win the remaining states and deligates. Obama is like a Hot Air Balloon. All style and fun but full of air. Just because his skin is black, he has none of the legitimate claim or sentiment of a true Black American. Mind you, he is a first generation Kenya immigrant. His heart will be with his root. Not the blacks Americans that endured hundreds of years of sufferings.

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vicqiui coon:

I sure hope Hillary will win the remaining states and deligates. Obama is like a Hot Air Balloon. All style and fun but full of air. Just because his skin is black, he has none of the legitimate claim or sentiment of a true Black American. Mind you, he is a first generation Kenya immigrant. His heart will be with his root. Not the blacks Americans that endured hundreds of years of sufferings.

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Shannon:

Pollster.com, please remove posts by "vicqiui coon". Her username is offensive. I seriously doubt that any African American would refer to themselves as a "coon".

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David:

As a Vermonter I can tell you that this is an ideal Obama state. He will win VT real big (20+) Rhode Island is a clinton win so those two states should cancel each other out. I think CLinton will be able to hold on in Ohio. But i think Texas is looking more and more favorable for Obama. Just my opinion.

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David:

As a Vermonter I can tell you that this is an ideal Obama state. He will win VT real big (20+) Rhode Island is a clinton win so those two states should cancel each other out. I think CLinton will be able to hold on in Ohio. But i think Texas is looking more and more favorable for Obama. Just my opinion.

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rowjimmy:

"As a Vermonter I can tell you that this is an ideal Obama state. He will win VT real big (20+) Rhode Island is a clinton win so those two states should cancel each other out. I think CLinton will be able to hold on in Ohio. But i think Texas is looking more and more favorable for Obama. Just my opinion."

I think you have a good read on things.

I would guess:

VT: +25-30 Obama
RI: +6-8 Clinton
OH: +3-6 Clinton
TX: I won't even guess this one. Way too close to call. I see potential for a pretty big Obama win or a last stand by Clinton in a narrower victory. That is, I think the odds of Obama winning by 8-19 are much higher than her winning by the same. But I would give her a 50/50 chance of winning the state's popular vote, narrowly. It comes down to turnout and there's hardly a baseline to use for Texas since their primary hasn't matter in any recent time.

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rowjimmy:

"As a Vermonter I can tell you that this is an ideal Obama state. He will win VT real big (20+) Rhode Island is a clinton win so those two states should cancel each other out. I think CLinton will be able to hold on in Ohio. But i think Texas is looking more and more favorable for Obama. Just my opinion."

I think you have a good read on things.

I would guess:

VT: +25-30 Obama
RI: +6-8 Clinton
OH: +3-6 Clinton
TX: I won't even guess this one. Way too close to call. I see potential for a pretty big Obama win or a last stand by Clinton in a narrower victory. That is, I think the odds of Obama winning by 8-19 are much higher than her winning by the same. But I would give her a 50/50 chance of winning the state's popular vote, narrowly. It comes down to turnout and there's hardly a baseline to use for Texas since their primary hasn't matter in any recent time.

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Beth:

The one thing Obama has not been able to do is actually pull off an upset.

It matters. Hillary is going to the White House.

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Henry:

Beth,

Where are you getting your information? Are you getting any information?

Obama has consistently pulled off upsets in almost all of the states he's won. He won in the beginning in Iowa, upset. He won SC by 27 points, HUGE upset (polls had him up by 3-13).

Without naming every race since then, I'll skip to the other day in Wisconsin, where he won by 17 points, twice what the polls were showing.

If your ignorant post is any indication of a general trend, apparently Clinton supporters, like Bill Clinton and to a lesser extent Hillary herself, are simply out of touch with reality.

Hillary will concede on March 5. Get over it and move on.

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