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POLL: Gallup Panel Iowa's Impact


A new Gallup national panel survey of 1,008 adults (conducted 12/0 through 12/13) finds:

  • 67% of Americans would view Barack Obama winning the Iowa caucus as "a sign that he will seriously challenge Hillary Clinton for the nomination;" 31% would view it as a "temporary victory."
  • 70% would view Hillary Clinton losing the Iowa caucus as a temporary setback; 28% would view it as "a sign that her campaign is in serious trouble."
  • 71% would view Rudy Giuliani losing both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary as a sign that his campaign is in serious trouble; 28% would view it as a temporary setback.

"Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The final sample is weighted so it is representative of U.S. adults nationwide."

 

Comments
Hudson:

This is interesting data in some ways, to the extent that the media is already preparing all the possible spins of the results before a single vote is cast.

But I see the very existence of such polling data and meta-analysis as a sign of the debasement of our democratic, educational and media systems.

It is a sign that we are so far removed from the substance of issues when we place so much more emphasis on what the results might "mean" tactically than on what issues resonated with Iowans to cause that result.

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Paul:

Attitudes, perceptions and beliefs are guided by psychological processes, one of which is the matter of responding to expectations. What these three numbers say to me: (1) Obama is perceived as the underdog, threatening to take on the "top dog" --- appears he needs to win; (2) Clinton is so strong that a loss in Iowa would not deter her --- appears she does not have to win; (3) Giuliani will lose Iowa (down over 20) and New Hampshire (down over 15) --- he apparently has not lowered expectations, so his campaign is going to have to go into overdrive to convince Michigan, South Carolina Florida and the Feb. 5 states to ignore the poor results from Iowa and New Hampshire.

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Steve L.:

People already think Giuliani's campaign is in serious trouble. Losing Iowa wouldn't be so much a sign of it as a confirmation. I don't think the poll question adequately captures the sentiment.

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Steve L.:

People already think Giuliani's campaign is in serious trouble. Losing Iowa wouldn't be so much a sign of it as a confirmation. I don't think the poll question adequately captures the sentiment.

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Fred P:

Interesting that the questions are cast significantly differently for the Democratic candidates versus the Republican candidates.

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