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POLL: Gallup's Defectors By Demographic


Gallup follows up on their recent survey which looked at the percent of Obama and Clinton primary supporters who would vote for McCain if the other became the Democratic nominee.

"Black Democratic voters, regardless of whom they support, seem prepared to remain quite loyal to the Democratic Party. Fifteen percent of blacks who support Clinton would vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee, and only 10% of blacks who support Obama would vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee. In other words, there is little apparent risk of losing a substantial proportion of black voters regardless of who the nominee is."

"The data do not address the issue of motivation or turnout, which could be lower among blacks if Obama is not the nominee, nor do the data address the implications of the precise way in which Clinton might win the nomination."

Read the full analysis here.

 

Comments
Chantal:

Another mythbuster anyone?

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the_real_truth:

Turnout is key. I guarantee you Dem turnout will be much higher FOR Obama, and Rep turnout will be much higher AGAINST Clinton.

Clinton has virtually no chance of becoming president - I'd put it at around .0001% at this point.

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Nick Panagakis:

Don�t mean to get redundant. But adding more defection detail does not do much for this narrow view of the campaigns; i.e., samples of Clinton and Obama primary election supporters only.

My previous post said this should be a question of general election voters; i.e. does Clinton or does Obama win more independent voters?

My search of recent general election polls found only two polls showing how independents would vote. A March 18-19 Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Obama winning 37% of independents to Hillary�s 31%, and this was before his apparent recovery from his not knowing Wright from Wrong period. A Pew March 19-22 poll shows Obama winning 42% of independents to Hillary�s 39% and Obama winning 49% of independents to Hillary�s 44% last month.

(I respectively suggest that Mark and Eric strive to include such Dem/GOP/Ind detail in future reports.)

So how come Obama does better among independents than Clinton? It could be that the majority of voters who did not vote in a primary or caucus offset the defection rate observed by Gallup. Or it could be that the defection rate among McCain primary voters favored Obama over Clinton (an unknowable).

Why is not important. What is most important is which of the two is winning more of the independent vote in the general election.

Nick Panagakis

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