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POLL: Greg Smith & Associates Idaho Primary


A new Greg Smith & Associates statewide survey of 400 likely voters in Idaho (conducted 7/11 through 7/13) finds:

  • Among 156 Democrats, former V.P. Al Gore (at 31%) leads Sen. Hillary Clinton (23%), Sen. Barack Obama (22%), and former Sen. John Edwards (10%) in a statewide primary. When Gore is excluded, Obama edges out Clinton 33% to 31%.
  • Among 244 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 38%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (20%), former Sen. Fred Thompson (18%), and Sen. John McCain (14%) in a statewide primary.
  • Greg Smith writes, "I must warn you that we are dealing with smaller than usual sample sizes -- thus, caution should be taken in interpreting the results. However, the samples do in fact consist of respondents who were randomly selected and statistically representative of Idahoans statewide, and the study findings presented here are projectable to Idaho Republicans and Democrats statewide."

Typos corrected.

 

Comments
Andrew:

Good poll. We need polls in states other than the usual Iowa, NH, Florida, etc.

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Paul:

I would agree it is nice to see a poll from a "lower profile" state. As I believe Idaho has recently discussed moving their primary (or caucus?) to February, the results are more important. Perhaps someone in the know from Idaho could comment. In terms of the results, I am somewhat surprised that Gore did this well (perhaps the interest in the environment or is it that Clinton lacks some support). It is also interesting that neither Edwards nor McCain did well, consistent with recent results from other states.

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Greg (the pollster and long time Idaho analyst):

Thank you, Andrew and Paul, for your comments. Paul, the Democrats here are holding their caucus on Super Tuesday (February 5), and the Republicans their primary on May 24, as they have for a long time.

Paul, if you are interested in the full analysis/press release (or anyone else reading this), simply e-mail me at gregsm@quickidaho.com,and it will fully answer such questions as those posed by Paul.

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Brian:

Idaho has a huge LDS population...no suprise
Romney has a double digit lead

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Greg Smith & Associates:

Correct observation, Brian. Although, Romney has been to Idaho three different times (in three different parts of the state). Even if you exclude the most heavily L.D.S. populatd regions of Idaho from the calculations, Romney leads nonetheless (albeit by a smaller margin).

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