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POLL: GSG Alaska

Topics: Pollsters

Global Strategy Group/DSCC (D)

Alaska
McCain 44, Obama 42, Barr 3

 

Comments
killias2:

Another poll has Alaska close?

What is going on?

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1magine:

Alaska in play? In June? I think the question come July will start to be where do these guys concentrate energy, money and focus. Will McCain try to swap Alaska for MI? Is Alaska's electoral votes worth Obama's effort to turn 2-3% his way. Gotta love the chess game that is presidential politics.

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illinoisindie:

Really???
Isnt alaska reliably republican... whats going on

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illinoisindie:

Well Obama certainly has the money to compete wherever he wants... best election year ever. Nice that all states matter this round instead of just FL,OH,IA & MI

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Andrew_in_California:

Alaska is a weird state. Probably a combination of some of the most staunch conservative and most hippie liberal/independent people in the state. Nader garnered 10% of the vote here, far better performance than most of his performances in the 2000 election. An Obama victory here is viable as ANWAR becomes another election issue for this state. I'm betting global warming is becoming an issue as well as people here treat Polar Bear habitat more as something right in their backyard rather than a superficial afterthought of global warming.

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Nickberry:

Alaska has 3 electoral votes.

From the article: This poll was Democratically-funded (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) and also showed Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the likely Democratic nominee, ahead of GOP Sen. Ted Stevens.

Also the opinion from Cillizza is "Is it possible then -- given that mountain of contrary evidence -- to believe that Obama can carry Alaska in the fall?.... Probably not. But Obama's ability to remain within shouting distance in a place like Alaska means other down-ballot Democrats -- Begich in particular -- won't have to run 25 points ahead of their party's presidential nominee in order to win in the fall."

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Nickberry:

I believe the majority of Alaskans want ANWR opened up for drilling because it means revenues for them. Note also that McCain is still against drilling in ANWR as is Obama.

The Alaskan Natives of course are concerned about polar bear habitat... and they were very active in getting polar bears listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act this year.

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josephj:

Maybe Alaskans are just really digging his new ad? It' a great get-to-know-me ad for traditionally red states whose voters see him as unfamiliar.

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illinoisindie:

@Nickbeery alway trying to rain on the parade. whether senator Obama wins or not in alaska as you said may not be material to either him or Mccain seeing that it only has 3 electoral votes. However, the "for-election"
senators and house members sure do appreciate the boost that he is giving them. Must feel great to be a democrat right about now. It s about darn time... before we invade another country or oil hits $7 a gallon

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carl29:

I believe that if polls stay close, Barack should go to Alaska at some point. First, he doesn't lose anything since he's got money and energy. Second, people in Alaska will be very excited about having a presidential candidate finally visiting the state, so he may pick up some extra votes for the effort, and third, he could help other democrats on the ballot, either at federal or state level. Regardless if he wins the state or not, he should make McSame go, just in case, and in so doing, make McSame have a bad time with jet lag. This is when McSame's age vs. Barack's age would show.

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josephj:

@illinoisindie: As a Democrat, I've got to be honest in saying I really really don't think Barack has the power to lower gas prices one bit. Even if Detroit starts producing only electric vehicles, global demand will remain high because the oil-thirsty economies of China and India will gladly buy the remaining barrels that we ignore, and a windfall oil profits tax will never pass legislation.

@carl29: Obama will certainly have the cash on hand to make that Alaska trip!

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onelightonvoice:

I agree, go to Alaska Barack!

Now is the time to start laying the seeds for a sweep. It will send a crystal clear message what people think of the retardicans in the fall. If Alaska turns, this thing was over way before all their votes were counted.

Alas, their low electoral votes won't matter, but it will be symbolic. I see Obama winning it before the polls close in California. VA, NC, SC, GA, and FL will have sealed the deal early in the night.

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axt113:

It is beginning, Obama is the wave that will wash the GOP away

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Jeff:

This is a June 5-10 poll that some columnist for the Washington Post just found out about; only reason it got posted here.

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brambster:

I'm not a fan of these party/candidate sponsored polls, and even Rasmussen turns me off with their ties to Fox News.

This poll however is at least close to the numbers that other polls have put out for the Senate rate so it shouldn't be entirely dismissed. The poll showed Begich(D) ahead of Stevens(R-i) 51 to 44. Rasmussen has shown this race within 2 points in 3 polls for 2 months with an edge to Stevens. DailyKos.com(D)/Research 2000 (probably partisan influenced) and another unknown (to me) pollster has shown an edge for Begich recently at 5 to 7 points, the same as this poll.

I suspect it overestimates the margins of Begich by a few points, and therefore it probably means that Obama's a bit further than just 2 points in my estimation. Still a close result, but in my list of Bush states turning blue in order, Alaska would be the 15th to fall (Behind Montana, North Dakota, and North Carolina, but before Georgia).

Stevens may really hurt McCain in Alaska. I hear that even the Republicans can't stand the guy or at least want nothing to do with him now. Besides that however, I don't see enough Alaskan campaigning by Obama to make a difference. It could turn in a landslide though.

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Nickberry:

Consider that Stevens is the KING of PORK (e.g. Bridge to No Where) and that McCain is super ANTI-PORK.... Hard to see how Stevens can hurt McCain in Alaska.

Note: Although states typically like their "pork" it was clear that the "bridge" was to advantage Stevens and his developer friends and not Alaskan citizens.

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Nickberry:

Rain on someone's parade?.... And all I did was state FACTS and copy a quote from the poll link (Chris Cillizza's blog).

I guess reality bites. It enters everyday lives just like the weather.

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