8/1-7/08; 2,488 RV
Obama 47, McCain 38, Nader 3, Barr 2
(July: Obama 44, McCain 35, Nader 2, Barr 2)
Since I routinely ignore Zogby's "interactive" polls, I have no option but to apply the same standard to Harris.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:01 PM
It would be wise to discount this to some extent based on how the sample is taken, however Harris claims to specifically weight to counteract the propensity of certain voters to be online. They can't however counteract the propensity of respondents to include themselves in Internet polls since such polls are pulled rather than pushed (you have to go to a site and then do the clicking yourself rather than be called at the spur of the moment and respond). As we saw in the Democratic primaries, Obama over-performed in the caucuses because he had the most dedicated supporters by a large margin.
I would think that Zogby's interactive poll is probably less accurate than guessing by a large margin, and certainly not worthy of being tracked or reported on.
This poll seems more in line with the norm, though it still slightly over-polls third-party candidates, and I wouldn't doubt for a second that the age bias of Internet participation and the enthusiasm bias of pulling for respondents doesn't end up giving Obama several more points in margin. This however looks to be much more accurate than USA Today/Gallup's very short-sighted attempt at likely voter weighting.
I suppose that if anything can be learned from this that it would be that online polls can come close enough to the norm that there may be some hope for the method, especially if you don't have an enthusiasm or age gap.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:25 PM
How do they know they're registered voters? Probally self reporting. Not terribly reliable.
Though, if just used as a point of reference for tracking from month -month you see little to no change. Minor uptick for BO.
Posted on August 13, 2008 3:50 PM
I don't believe in "interactive polls." No comment :-)
Posted on August 13, 2008 4:35 PM
OK people, let's disperse...nothing to see here. We all know who wins by a more than comfortable
margin in the end. Obama. Now go home.
Posted on August 13, 2008 6:48 PM
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