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POLL: Hill Research Colorado (8/23-24)


Hill Research Consultants (R) /
Bob Schaffer / NRSC
8/23-24/08; 553 LV, 4.2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Colorado
Obama 43, McCain 40
Sen: Udall (D) Schaffer (R) 38

 

Comments
captamericausa:

Can't wait to see Colorado in blue - keep it up Obama!

Obama/Biden 08'

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Sergei Groinka:

Hispanics rushing towards Obama.. But I think it will turn around tomorrow when Romney get nominated as Veep.

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Florida Voter:

Good news. Hope the trend continues. I think Coloradians are in Democratic overload at this point.

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Mike_in_CA:

Sergei,

why would Hispanics flock to Romney!?! Um, just no. Quite the opposite.

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djneedle83:

Haha..

Hispanics are going to vote for a Mittens..

haha...

Obama wil get atleast 70% of the Hispanic vote in Colorado. That votes makes up 15% of the electorate in the 2008 election. Obama wins Colorado by 3%-5% due to the Hispanic vote, Denver metro, and the Boulder liberal mecca.

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djneedle83:

I live in Connecticut and there is no way in the world any minority (black, hispanic, gay) are going to vote for a ticket with Mittens.

The VP is going to be the Minnestoa gov...

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djneedle83:

Split-Screen Convention

One box with the rethugs and one box with the Cat 3 hurricane. The GOP is going to get screwed with their coverage because of the monster hurricance in the Gulg that's going to hit Lousiana.

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thoughtful:

This is a pre-convention poll.

Obama will be up to a range of + 7 - 15% in next weeks Colorado polls.

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faithhopelove:

Once again, a poll of CO showing the race there to be within the margin of error (Obama up 3 points). But it's a Republican pollster who conducted the poll for a Republican senatorial candidate. Obama will take any kind of lead in a poll like this one. Why is McCain only at 40% in a Republican poll of a red state?

Note also that the poll was conducted entirely before the Dem convention in Denver.

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Biscuit:

The thing that a Romney pick would do in the area of Colorado, Nevada etc. is get the Mormon population motivated to come out strong for the ticket. I've been worried for a while that a Romney pick could make a significant difference in those two states.

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DocnTN:

Sergei,
Hispanics flocking to a Mormom? C'mon!

Gallup just came out with Obama up 6 nationally. Just a temporary bounce but a welcome one.

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Stillow:

CO has been trending blue for a while. The city of Boulder is just one notch below San Fran for being the looniest city in America. It wouldn't shock me at all if BO takes this state.

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Mike_in_CA:

Doc,

not necessarily temporary. Gallup is a rolling average. Once Monday falls off, tomorrow's lead will be much bigger. ~10, maybe 10+. Looks like McCain's prediction of a 15 point bounce will be close to true ;)

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mac7396:

Awesome news on Gallup. That's +8 Obama in 2 days. Looks like a convention bounce.

Today, MSNBC conveniently used the poll from 2 days ago showing a +2 McCain lead. Given the terribly biased MSM reporting during the DNC Convention, it's unlikely anyone else will report on this turnaround.

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rdw4potus:

I have utterly no idea why Catholic Hispanics would flock to support a Mormon VP candidate. Putting that aside for a second, McCain's stance on Colorado River Basin water rights basically boils down to "f*ck Colorado. Rah, Rah, Arizona rocks." Why would anyone in Colorado vote for someone who wants to re-write federal water compacts and damage the growth potential of Denver to benefit Phoenix?

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mirrorball:

mac7396: I generally agree the MSM is terrible at reporting polling numbers, but I chalk it up more to ignorance rather than bias. I would hardly use that term to describe MSNBC's coverage this week. Other than Chris Matthews trying to get former Clinton aides to divulge Bill and Hillary's secrete plan to "retake the White House for the family," most of their analysts have been gushing over the Dem speeches.

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faithhopelove:

Only 2.7% of Colorado's population is Mormon. See:
http://www.mormonwiki.com/Membership_Statistics_U.S.

The majority of Colorado Springs (home of James Dobson) is conservative evangelical. Many conservative evangelicals believe Mormonism is a cult. (I lived in CO for several years; I grew up in conservative evangelical circles.)

Choosing Romney as his running mate may threaten McCain's gains with his base, as 18% of Republicans have said they would not vote for a Mormon. See: http://www.gallup.com/poll/103150/Percentage-Unwilling-Vote-Mormon-Holds-Steady.aspx

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I expect that tomorrow we'll see an even larger Obama margin in the Gallup daily tracking poll. The trailing end of the current three-day average was a particularly good day of polling for McCain. If today's polling is simply in-line with the last two-month average, the Obama margin should increase tomorrow.

Is this a convention bounce or a consequence of a statistical outlier from two days ago? We'll never really know, but I am sure that the Gallup writeup and the punditry world will frame it as a bounce since that is the storyline they expect.

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faithhopelove:

To put the number re: Romney (18% of Republicans would not vote for him) in perspective: yesterday, a poll of CO found McCain up 1 point; in order to get this lead of statistical insignificance, he needed 96% of the Republican vote in CO. What happens in CO if McCain gets around 82% of the Republican vote there?

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Andrew_in_California:

Romney will not be VP. I can see if he is, the Obama commercials in retaliation of all the things Romney said of McCain last Winter just like McCain did to Obama with Biden and Clinton. It will be Pawlenty and he'll make MN competitive at best but noone knows who the guy is. If its Lieberman then his party will reject him. What's good enough for Gore is good enough for McCain will not be a very good slogan :p

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Uri:

@mac7396: I would strongly doubt that even an avid Obama supporter would say that MSNBC has a republican bias...

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Stillow:

McCain's hisotry is one of not being conventional. Keep your eye on Hutchison of TX...I think she's right there as a top possibility. A female conservative would excite the base and cour tright leaning independent women.

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mac7396:

Ok, atleast there is some balance on MSNBC to Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough, with Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow. But beyond, those 2, the MSM has been carrying McCain's water all week. He launched his 3am add before the DNC Convention which resulted in 24-hour "bitter Hillary voter" coverage for the first 2 nights. I think Bubba put it to bed last night though.

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Stillow:

You are just friggin nuts if you think the MSM has a right wing bias. I mean that is stuff that will get you put in the loony house. This is a trick the left uses, claim there's a right wing bias to confuse people. Anyone with an IQ of 5 and higher knows exactly the type of bias the MSM has.

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Biscuit:

Except studies of the media and their coverage of these two candidates in terms of positive/negative refutes you there.

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jradMIT:

It seems McCain has no easy answers for VP selection. If he feels he needs to take a chance and that he needs to change the narrative tomorrow in a big way, he will have to pick someone that no one is talking about i.e. Palin or Hutchinson. Romney or Pawlenty will get a big yawn. Romney's comments about McCain in the primary will make great cable news fodder. Can Pawlenty put Minnesota in play, can he hold up in a debate with Biden?

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mrut:

@Stillow

Re: Kay Bailey Hutchison as VP. I think she is too tepid in her opposition of abortion for the Republican base. She opposes abortion but does not advocate overturning Roe v. Wade. She also belongs to or is associated with some pro-choice women's advocacy group. She's anti-abortion, but probably not enough for the cultural conservatives. This makes her potentially attractive for independent women, though.

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Biscuit:

I'm not totally sure I buy in to that 18% number as being a true measure of that sentiment. And I'm more worried about Romney's impact on Nevada where Mormons make up over 7 percent of the population.

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mac7396:

You been watching TV? Everyone already knows Fox is about as biased as possible. But CNN and MSNBC (exlcuding Keith/Rachel) have been wall-to-wall coverage of upset Clinton voters. CNN had a panel of a democrat, republican, and independent respond to Hillary's speech. What a surprise that the so-called independent used to work for Guiliani and along with republican thought it was a bad speech?!? Sure Obama gets more coverage than McCain, but it's negative coverage.

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Stillow:

Hey if you guys wanna think there's a right wing bias in the MSM, then I'd like to sell you some unicorns.....

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faithhopelove:

Pawlenty + having the GOP convention in MN would make that state a second-tier pick-up opportunity for McCain (along with MI, and right after NH). But McCain would be limiting his pick-up opportunities to those 3 states, as Pawlenty is a bland choice who has little name-recognition outside his own state.

Moreover, Pawlenty does not guarantee MN. Today's state-by-state SUSA numbers on the economy show MN voters (61%) to be some of the least satisfied in the country. See:
http://www.surveyusa.com/

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DocnTN:

Hope you're right, Mike_in_CA!

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Inkan1969:


Stillow, if you don't think the MSM is right-wing biased, why don't you actually argue your assertion?...

mac7396 was dead on on about the right-wing bias in the PUMA-crazy mainstream media. Another example would be the Russia/Georgia confrontation. The mainstream media has portrayed that tragedy only as Russia overrunning Georgia: They've ignored the fact that this mess began when Georgia tried to retake South Ossetia by force, a military action that would've devastated SO if it had succeeded, and that for the most part the Russians have stayed out of Georgia proper, remaining only in Abkhazia and SO. And likewise the MSM has ignored Saakashvili's disturbing behavior, making groundless claims about the war. Instead we've only got the Russia is inherently evil meme, and the MSM has been fawning over MacCain because of it.

There is NO SUCH THING as a leftist media in the United States, with the exception of free weeklies.

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Stillow:

@Inkan1969

Because anyone who honestly thinks the media has a right wing bias has already been brainwashed beyond the point of rational discussion.

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KipTin:

"Udall leading Schaffer 41 percent to 38 percent. That's within the survey's +/- 4.2 percent margin of error."

This is BAD news for Udall and a Democratic-controlled Congress. Time for a reality check Obamanation. There are other political races at stake here.

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Inkan1969:

@Stillow

You do realize that your posts sound very weak in that you still haven't backed up your assertion, don't you?

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Stillow:

@Inkan1969

Again, when someone has convinced themselves the sky is pink, its pointless to argue. I have argued this point amongst many others with brainwashed lefties, it goes no where. If you want to think CNN, NY Times, MSNBC, NBC, CBS, etc, etc, etc are all right wing, then my freind, I cannot help you.

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KipTin:

You guys arguing over MSNBC should read some of now several articles about the angry exchanges between Matthews and Olbermann (Olbermann started it with making his hand talk as a retort against McCain), Olberman's major insult to Scarborough (something to do with a "shovel"), Scarborough calling Schuster on his so-called "independence,", Olbermann calling Hillary's former spokesman "Tokyo Rose" because he took a job as a Fox News analyst, rumors that Olbermann is trying to get certain analysts removed from MSNBC because they are perceived anti-Obama.

On top of that, NBC will not air an advertisement from T. Boone Pickens regarding Iran converting their vehicles to natural gas so that they have more oil to sell at extraordinary high prices outside of Iran. Pickens says that America is not doing enough yet. Apparently, NBC wants Pickens to prove that America is not doing enough. (Note: Other major networks are airing ads without questions or "proof.")

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KipTin:

Make that "Olbermann started it with making his hand talk as a retort against Matthews"...not McCain.

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faithhopelove:

KipTin:

This poll was conducted for the Republican candidate by a Republican pollster.

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Inkan1969:

Kip, all the examples you cite are of Olberman. Just one guy out of the whole network. As for that Pickens ad, I don't see why a leftist bias would compel a network to refuse it. It's not like the ad said Iran was converting cars to natural gas so that they can make nukes.

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mac7396:

Let's look at CNN's new political analysts: David Brody (Christian Broadcasting Network), Alex Castellanos (Republican Strategist, GOP hitman), Dana Milbank (author of Obama the "presumptious nominee". I guess sending your wife to Georgia doesn't count as being presumptous), Hilary Rosen (an actual democrat), and Tara Wall (the Washington times). Uh, yeh, that's a left leaning group all the way.

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KipTin:

SOS...faithhopelove... One of YOUR Top 10 Reasons why polls do not count.

READ CAREFULLY (and read more)... Inkan1969... I gave several examples which included Scarborough and Schuster (and there is background to that one on Schuster).

And apparently, the NBC/Pickens issue is too far above your head to understand. Your comment back to me was irrelevant.

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Basil:

Unless you think Dick Cheney's on the left wing of his party (Stillow?), then Fox is right wing. While I don't think any human can be fair and balanced (i.e. not take sides on some issues), only a total fool or cynic could buy Fox's claim.

CNN is all over the place, but they'll say whatever seems exciting enough to get ratings. There's no such thing as a slow news day for them, and Wolf Blitzer is the worst on that score. Playing up the conflict within the Democratic party lately (not that there wasn't any), and exaggerating the closeness of the presidential race is what they have to do.

CSPAN's convention coverage was the best. Did anyone else show Montana gov Schweitzer's speech? It was really fun and got the audience going. Tivo helps, though.

MSNBC can be informative , if excessive. Rachel Maddow is a smart cookie. The GOP outrages of the last eight years ought to make everybody angry, and they've certainly had that effect on Olbermann. He's the anti-Rush/O'Reilly that their excesses call into being--over the top but more humanely so than they.

MSM bias overall=corporate

If I had to pick someone to agree with, it's Bill Moyers.

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Basil:

I just saw some of the discussion about MSNBC. It's great that a bunch of guys with MSNBC shows can argue with each other. Far more honest than anything happening on other networks.

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KipTin:

Apparently, mac7396 does not have a clue about Cindy McCain and her long-time work with families in war-torn nations.

Regarding CNN... You forgot Donna Brazile, James Carville, Paul Begala, Jeffrey Toobin, Roland Martin... hard core liberals. I guess they are trying to find a balance.

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KipTin:

You call that "honest" arument? It is more like lack of professionalism, immaturity, and bullying. Just think what happens off camera.

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Basil:

I'm not saying their argument is particularly honest. I haven't heard it. I'm saying that commentators who disagree with each other is honest.

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Inkan1969:

@KipTin

You said:
- Olbermann started a fight with Matthews
- Olbermann insulted Scarborough
- Scarborough calling Schuster out
- Olbermann slamming Hillary's former spokesman
- Olbermann supposedly trying to get certain analysts canned.

I should've said "Nearly all" your examples were of Olbermann. You have just one example of someone else, not several.

Exactly what about that Pickens commercial am I supposed to understand? I still don't see why NBC's issues with that ad would come from a leftist bias.

And BTW: Carville was the guy who was most going on about how bad the convention was going on Monday. If you go to a leftist blog like DailyKos, you'll find that Carville in fact is very despised.

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mac7396:

The same goes for Begala. He's a hardcore Clinton supporter, and no supporter of Obama's.

When Cindy McCain finds here way to Darfur, then I'll believe it's not a political stunt.

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faithhopelove:

KipTin:

You seem to be confused. I haven't made any "Top 10" lists about anything.

Are we to believe that you think it's good news for Republicans when Republican pollsters working for Republican candidates find Democrats ahead in red states?

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rationalvoice:

KipTin, you are quite the elitist, claiming you're intellect is superior to all the "brainwashed masses" that support Obama. Not unlike the image in your head of liberals.

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KipTin:

No... I am compiling the "Top 10" list for why Democrats (and Obama) do not fare well in some polls. You made the excuse that it was a GOP pollster and that is why Udall was not doing as well. Get it?

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KipTin:

No...mac7396... a political stunt is accepting the Democratic nomination at Invesco Field.

You sound like you are not well read. For example: At the end of July Cindy McCain visited Rwanda. She was previously there in 1994 at the height of the genocide. She wrote about her trip in the Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB121720134007588395.html

So what has Michelle Obama done lately?... or EVER?

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KipTin:

Of course Obamanation despises Carville. He does not mince words and has not declared his lust for Obama... and he was the campaign manager who helped Bill Clinton win in 2000. "It's the economy, STUPID."
-----

FYI... rationalvoice... I am a liberal, but I am also a pragmatist. Comes with my upbringing. Also thank you for calling me an "elitist" since I came from far humbler roots than Barack or Michelle could even fathom. (e.g. outdoor privy, hunting and fishing for food, one pair of shoes, etc. etc.). You know... the kind of people that Obama cannot "connect" with. The hard-working pragmatists of the world.

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TR in VA:

every 4 years its the same thing...
the dems THIS TIME will take COL... and every time it NEVER happens

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Sergei Groinka:

My comments were misunderstood. I said that the lead positions will turn around if Romney gets nominated as more conservative Christians (Including conservative democrats) will vote for McCain.

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Mike In Maryland:

Hey niTpiK:

So when GW Booooooosh wanted to give his acceptance speech at Yankee Stadium in 2004, it was not a political stunt? But when Senator Obama gives a speech in front of 84,000 plus people, it is political theater, and not very good theater at that?

And you wonder why many think that you are 'tetched in the haid'?

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Clint Cooper:

Anyone who doesn't recognize the clear and consistent right-wing bias in the media is obviously getting all their "news" from the likes of Laura Ingraham and Rush Limbaugh - people who lie easily and often, 24 hours a day.

CNN, MSNBC, and Faux News are all owned by corporate giants. Gee, I wonder who the owners are rooting for in this election. Not to mention the fact that the AP has been hijacked by right-wing scum.

The AP hit piece on Obama was obviously written DURING or BEFORE his big speech in Denver in that it was put out just minutes after Obama finished, was over 600 words long (you CAN'T throw together an article like that in 10 minutes I'm sorry) and had glaring inaccuracies in it.

I hope Obama restores the fairness doctrine.

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Sergei Groinka:

Right wing bias in the media???? Polls show that 55-60% of the voters think media is trying to help Obama. Should be a left wing bias.. I don't think even Obama will complain about any bias in the media (though his supporters like Madonna will complain, since her IQ is below 60).

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Tybo:

so Mike you see the how Bush is the same as Obama...

it's quite evident

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Clint Cooper:

Sergei, the fact that the voters believe the media is trying to help Obama just feeds my argument - because that's what the media tells them to believe!

In fact, the only Independent study conducted on this shows that the media has been unfairly negative towards Barack Obama. It's a fact.

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