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POLL: InsiderAdvantage Florida (8/11)


InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position
8/11/08; 418 RV, 5%
Mode: IVR

Florida
McCain 48, Obama 44, Barr 2

 

Comments
Undecided:

Just heard on CNN that Obama has spent $6.5 million on TV advertising in Florida and McCain has spent Zero... yet McCain is ahead.

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jsh1120:

Considering the checkered history of the Florida primary and the absence of an Obama organization in the state, I'm not surprised to see that he has to spend heavily to be competitive.

I'm somewhat skeptical that Obama can carry Florida, but if he does, the election will be over. In any event, Florida is not essential to an Obama victory. It's a make or break state for McCain.

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axt113:

Undecided, for Obama Florida is not a must win, he can win with jus kerry states New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa, all od which he's leading in right now, however McCain cannot win without florida, its a must win for him, Obama will gladly put money into florida if he has a chance of winning because if he does somehow win it the election is his

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obedelman:

This poll contains absolutely great news for Obama if you know how to read it. Just look at the crosstabs. If the poll is believed, Obama is winning independents by thirty points and Hispanics by forty points. The ONLY reason McCain is in front is because the sample is weighted with more Republicans (171) than Democrats (159). If the reverse was true, Obama would be leading by a few points (this is not even counting, of course, the registered but "unlikely" voters that have been excluded).

Is it too much to ask for these polling firms to stop misleading the public in this way? It fine if they want to weight the sample based on guesses as to who is going to turn out, but at least their press release should explain that is what they are doing. By reading the release, one would think Obama is tanking in Florida, when in fact the poll indicates he will likely win if his voter registration and turnout efforts are reasonably successful.

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TheVoice_99:

OOOPS, looks like undecided's rather ridiculous & inane argument just got shredded. That was nice work, obedelman.

Wow, that was like watching Mike Tyson beat up a toddler. OUCH (cringe)!


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TheVoice_99:

Little secret for you guys.....team obama is setting a goal of $500 million before election day...sshhh.

so 7 mil is nothing. be afraid repubs......the attacks haven't even started from the 527s.....and the word is, Obama will unleash them closer to election day......it ain't going to be pretty.


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Downpuppy:

That staff is a little odd:

Florida doesn’t have as significant a percentage of blacks among its voting population as other big Southern states. Less well known is that it doesn’t have as many young voters either

You mean there are OLD people in Forida? Why wasn't I told?!

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1magine:

What this election is really about:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdJUCU1UH2w

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Paul:

Last four elections Florida and Ohio have essentially been a tie. This year, 538 is projecting Florida as 4 points more GOP than Ohio. A 4 point victory therefore by McCain in FL calls for a draw in Ohio. Obama can still win even by losing Ohio but he needs Virginia or Colorado and he needs all Kerry states plus NM and IA. A close Obama loss in FL would seem acceptable if the FL-OH differential is real.

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Dave:

Paul,

don't forget that in 2000, gore won by over 90,000 votes in florida, but Katherine Harris illegally purged 94,000 voters there.

not to mention the 18,000 who were fooled by the butterfly ballot, and accidentally voted for Buchanan rather than Gore.

in 2004, the GOP caging operation was even larger. hundreds of thousands of voters in OH were disqualified, or turned away at the polls or experienced the really sneaky trick they played, and that i witnessed, which was to put only one or two broken machines in the largest busiest black precincts so that people had to wait on line for 14 hours in the pouring november rain in hopes of getting to vote, which many didn't.

the fact is we don't even know what they did in florida, but florida has been blue at least in 2000, and very likely in 2004 too.

also florida is one of the most gerrymandered states in the country, so even though there is a majority of democrats registered in florida, the republicans oddly control more than 75% of the legislature there.

This year, according to the link my name leads to, (greg palast's report about this) is going to be the largest in history for illegal voter purging.

they really have to do it because they are fighting for their life. in CO last month, the republican secretary of state there just purged 1/5 of the entire electorate, but mostly blacks and mostly democrats. go figure.

if they fail with their caging operations, then they stand the very high odds of being prosecuted for their election fraud crimes. things wouldn't be good for them.

Also, in many states now, they have hired the same companies (like the newly renamed diebold) to actually not only count the votes but also to deal with registrations.

in florida this year, already, the secretary of state has turned down 85,000 registrations that were perfectly valid. if people there want to register, they will need to find their birth certificates, and they'll need to get a $94 passport too, because that's the new poll tax that the Help America Vote Act has mandated.

anyway if you care about democracy, be worried. make sure you're registered, and make sure your friends are too.

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marctx:

obama has had over 9,000 ads run in FL to mccain's zero ads, but obama is not gaining ground. the electoral maps shows he doesn't need FL. The older voters and split Hispanics in FL will give this state to mccain but it looks like this state won't decide the election. kudos to obama. he's doing better than i thought. mccain's only hope is the 527s.

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Undecided:

I am not aware that I made an "argument." I stated a verifiable fact. What is ridiculous and inane is TheVoice_99 when he targets other posters with disparagement.

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marctx:

Undecided:

Since I've been on this site, I've never been able to tell who you support. Voice has been strongly supporting obama and attacking mccain supporters for a while and i respect his opinion but not his methods. he's been banned many times. lets display fairness and i hope you and voice can get out your opinions without attacking other posters. there is like five to twenty posters on this site that post. this election is not going to be impacted in anyway by Undecided or Voice. Stop the personal attacks. Mark B. doesn't need the headache.

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player:

There is a verified rumor tonight that John Kerry is seriously being vetted as Barack Obama's running mate. If this were to be true, you have to wonder what kind of circus event the media would turn it into.

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Clint Cooper:

lol at the crosstabs. This Republican pollster seems to be under the illusion that the same proportions of Republicans and Democrats will turn out as in 2004 - 40% Rep and 37% Dem. If you look at the internals, Obama leads Independents in this poll by 30 points.

The poll also shows McCain getting 18% of the black vote, though, so maybe this poll should be taken with a grain of salt.

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player:

One of those other recent polls in another state showed McCain getting 14% of the black vote. Could it be that black voters are beginning to see through Obama's self inflated fog? Or Jessie Jackson may have done Obama some damage.

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Clint Cooper:

Ugh. The last thing the Democrats need is to have John Botox Kerry on the ticket.

How about someone YOUNG! Two young people on a ticket together - is that too much to ask?

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thoughtful:

Thought I'd weigh in here, this poll looks to be erroneous in its voter sample - pardon the pun. Unfortunate, as its one of the key measures. I expect due to local matters that Obama will pick up Ohio. Florida appears to be a toss up, but these numbers are so corrupt difficult to extrapolate with certainty anything other than Obama is polling better than expected.

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cinnamonape:

Here's the problem with weighting this poll +4% for Republicans.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/legislature/story/638085.html

The Registration figures have now surpassed the Republicans in Florida by well over a half million voters. And Democratic new registrants are almost 3:1 to Republicans. Now one could argue that these are "new voters" and unlikely to vote...but many are switching registration or are independents who have decided to switch.

This in a State that had no "official" Primary...and the surge in registration figures has been AFTER that primary.

One has to think that this shift is a mirror of intent to vote for a particular candidate in the Fall....not a effort to "sway" a primary.

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TheVoice_99:

undecided- not ,

Your "argument" is that obama spent money , and "mccain is ahead". mccain is going to lose florida - badly. He isn't even ahead there. Why don't you check the cross-tabs & the previous posts here to actually see that this poll has bogus weighting.

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thoughtful:

Looked at the crosstabs again. In my opinion, this poll was set up to get a result not to provide an objective snapshot.

I'd love to see the Obama Campaign's internals. You don't commit this kind of money to ad spend purely on the lack of primary campaign etc. See how much the next traunch is!

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Undecided:

FACT: Florida poll averages (Pollster/RCP) = McCain ahead of Obama. 538 gives McCain 72% chance of winning.

My previous statement was factual and correct.

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