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POLL: InsiderAdvantage Georgia (with Barr)


InsiderAdvantage

Georgia
McCain 45, Obama 35, Barr 8

 

Comments
Tybo:

But, but , Obama was going to win Georgia....

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Andrew_in_California:

Who said he was?

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Swingebreech:

With Barr pulling numbers like this, perhaps Obama does have a whiff of a chance!

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Georgia could definitely be in play; at the least, McCain will have to defend. For Obama to actually turn Georgia blue, Barr would have to do better. Note, however, that this poll has African Americans as only 21% of the electorate and Obama supposedly only gets in the 70+% rather than the 90+% he would actually get.

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Shadar:

Also note that this poll was done with hillary still in the race. As soon as she drops out the obama numbers will slowly start to increase.

But really, if Obama wins Georgia then he has also won VA, NC, SC, and most of the rest of the country. So GA is kind of a mute point... since it would mean he won 350+ electoral votes if he is getting GA.

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desirous:

That poll is screwy. AA's will poll closer to their share of the population, which is 30%. Also, Obama will get 90+% of the black vote. He is still likely to lose Georgia, but because of McCain solidifying support among whites.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Who said he was?"

The voices in his head? Obama could force McCain to spend money there, which would be devastating for McCain, but I don't think anyone was running around saying Obama could win.

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eternaltriangle:

Shadar, I don't like predictions like "once Clinton is out of the race..." Most people know she has lost - will some Democrats rally to Obama once she drops out? Sure, but how many will depend upon Obama's actions in part (how well he manages the reconciliation). Managing the reconciliation has a cost too, since it takes away time spent targeting swing states.

If Clinton is forced out after winning the popular vote, or if Clinton dropping out is particularly acrimonious, it won't help Obama. I know this is very un-Obama-ish for you, but sometimes you had best separate cogent analysis from "hope".

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eternaltriangle:

Also, look at the cross-tabs. Barr pulls 5% of Democrats and 7.5% of Republicans. He gets the bulk of his support from independents, the advantage Obama gets out of this is minimal (especially considering Barr's lead among young people, a key Obama constituency).

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