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POLL: InsiderAdvantage Georgia


InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion
7/2/08 - 502 LV, 4.3%

Georgia (view our chart here)
McCain 46, Obama 44, Barr 4

 

Comments
Paul:

Interesting that IA poll and their last poll has the race this tight in Georgia. I assume their sample does not reflect the same demographics as other polls ... perhaps higher percent of African Americans or younger, better educated or higher income?

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skibum1981:

Wow.

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onelightonvoice:

I'm tried of saying it.....oh, okay, I'll say it again.......told you so!


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josephj:

If there's anywhere that Barr has a chance to be the new Nader, it's Georgia.

Nickberry, wherefore art thou?

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political_junki:

At the end of the day it is very unlikely that Obama can win GA, but he can bleed McSame's pocket dry in states like this, or N.C and VA...

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avatarMM:

if McCain only wins George by 2%, or even 5%, that would mean that Obama wins more purple states like FL, VA, NC, MO. the ripple effect would be tremendous if he can actually tilt the electorate that much.

this means McCain can forget about winning any Kerry states, and would need to defend states like GA or even MS, that no one could dream would be in play

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Undecided:

I see from the pollster chart that for the Insider Advantage Polls, that Barr has dropped from 8% to 6% to 4%. For some reason Barr is trending to make less of an impact in his home state of Georgia.


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Undecided:

Obama does not have a chance in Mississippi unless he gets a significant number more of white voters... and the polls show that it is not likely to happen.

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kingsbridge77:

Typical Obama supporters:
three polls have been conducted the past weeks, and they ignore the two polls that show McCain with an 8% (strategic vision) and 10% (rasmussen) lead, and focus on the one showing him statistically tied with Obama.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/SV_GA_July08.html

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kingsbridge77:

I meant "the past week", not weeks.

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Virginia Centrist:

Kingsbridge77:

Good point. All of these Obama folks are using the comment section of a poll where McCain is up by only 2 in Georgia to focus on and discuss a poll where McCain is up by only 2 in Georgia. It's remarkable! It's as if people want to use the comment section for a particular story/poll to discuss that poll. You've really made a breakthrough in internet commenting dynamics.

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Michele:

Undecided-

For some reason Barr is trending to make less of an impact in his home state of Georgia.


Ever since Barr embraced the Libertarian party he's been making statements about the foolishness of the war on drugs, something that doesn't play well at all in GA. The more he opens his mouth the more voters he loses.

I suspect that 8% he had before was simply name recognition or dissatisfaction with the other two candidates. Don't forget that in his last outing Barr couldn't even win a Congressional primary against John Linder, the man who put the milque in milquetoast.

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ndirish11:

-Virginia Centrist

You just proved Kingsbridge77's point about typical Obama supporters. Just because one poll out of a number of them points to your candidate, doesn't mean you can ignore the other ones regardless of where you are posting your comment. I think people should reference other polls and find an average, not focus on one of them.

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brambster:

@Virginia

I wouldn't trump one poll by using a firm such as Strategic Vision as proof. That firm polled Pennsylvania 5 times this past March and April and on the lead question of Bush's approval, the results varied from a net negative of 51 points to 39 points...a 12 point swing on a no brainier opinion only question. They also showed McCain with a 3 point to 10 point lead over Obama during that same time frame. Strategic vision also provides political strategy services to Republicans.

Rasmussen has a better reputation and better results, at least in the past. This election however they have some states where they are an outliers and this is likely due to their own weighting along political identification instead of just demographics. In many cases they are inside the pack, but states like OR, CT, FL and WI, they consistently show stronger results for McCain than other pollsters. Rasmussen is associated with Fox News and Scott Rasmussen is personally associated with Republican leaning groups and views. I think this only skews their method, and not universally, but that's of course just a personal opinion.

No I don't know much about Insider Advantage, and I haven't seen their cross tabs, but I I was going to dismiss a poll I would do it like I dismissed Strategic Vision, and not just because a 2 to 1 ratio of results. If anything, it might suggest to me that Rasmussen is also off in Georgia because they have similar results to Strategic Vision.

Georgia would be in the last 15 or states to turn for Obama this election in my view, but the mere fact that they are even polling this state speaks volumes as to the progress that Obama has made. They have made an investment in Georgia, and the people running his campaign are the same ones that beat Hillary and was near perfect guessing the outcomes of all of the primaries after Super Tuesday. The fact that they think they are competitive enough to play in Georgia says that there is in fact a shot, and even the wider margin polls say this IMO.

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I'm a die-hard Obama supporter, but kingsbridge77 is correct. InsiderAdvantage polls are terrible, especially in Southern states. Just examine their record in every Southern primary - they are virtually never even close. I'd go with Rasmussen on this one. Their polls for Jim Martin vs. Chambliss have shown consistency, for example, and always closer than Strategic Vision (GOP) shows.

Should Obama run ads in Georgia? Yes! Should we believe it is as close as InsiderAdvantage suggests? No!

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Paul:

Zogby (paid subscription) just released his state by state polls. Zogby has Georgia as McCain 44.1, Obama 37.6, Barr 8.4, Nader 0.2, Someone else/not sure 9.7

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