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POLL: InsiderAdvantage IN (4/30-5/1), NC (5/1)


InsiderAdvantage

North Carolina
n=611
Obama 49, Clinton 44

Indiana
Clinton 47, Obama 40

Note: InsiderAdvantage's 4/29 survey showed African Americans at 25% of likely Democratic primary voters in North Carolina, while their 5/1 survey shows it at 33%.

 

Comments
JR:

I AM BEGINING TO THINK THESE POLLS ARE TRYING TO MAKE IT LOOK LIKE IT IS ALOT CLOSER THAN IT ACTUALY IS 7 PERCENT IS A BIG BIG DIFFERENCE MY THOUGHT WOULD BE IF YOU ADD THAT IN BO WOULD BE UP BY AT LEAST 10,BUT I AM JUST A REGULAR PERSON NOT A POLITICAL EXPERT.

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damitajo1:

Well, I think a lot of whites are dropping him like hotcakes. His appearance on Meet the Press, which takes him out of both Indiana and NC, is really speaking to the Superdelegates. They want to know how to hold on. And they want a national reaction to the cleaned up script. It will be far more refined than earlier this week -- now that so many people have helped tweak it.

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JR:

I JUST REREAD THE ARTICLE AND I SWITCH IT AROUND AND GOT THE DATES WRONG SO MY STATEMENT IS NOT CORRECT SORRY FOR MY MISTAKE.

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Andrew_in_California:

All these polls keep leaving out the fact that NC has already had a lot of absentee voting go on for the past couple of weeks before much of these random controversies occurred.

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crumbtrail:

JR,
Turn off your caps. I generally ignore people who are "yelling" at me.

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Patrick:

There was a North Carolina legislator on TV this morning that was predicting a very close vote there. He said between the Rev. Wright controversy and the Governor's endorsement of Clinton (including in TV ads), Obama has been steadily losing white support in the past week and that more African American women were likely to support Clinton in NC than in other states with a high % of blacks. Maya Angelou (who is highly respected in the AA community, esp. among women) has been campaigning for Clinton in NC and is also featured in her ads there. The fact that Clinton is actually spending today and Sat. in NC (instead of IN) shows that the Clinton campaign is confident they have a comfortable margin in IN and are closing the gap in NC. Tues. is going to be very interesting! Assuming Clinton wins IN, even if Obama wins NC (esp. by single digits), if there is evidence of "white flight" in the exit polls, he's in big trouble with the uncommitted superdelegates.

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Brad:

Insider Advantage came out with that turd earlier this week that had HRC +2 in NC. Then, the Insider Advantage pollster actually went on Fox News and said Obama would still win NC. Now that's confidence! Either way, it shows Obama rising.

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Mike_in_CA:

Patrick,

While your analysis is extremely biased and one sided, I suspect it's wrong. Surrogates and endorsements rarely pull in support for candidates. Especially this late in the game. I doubt Maya Angelou or Gov. Easley are having that much impact (see: Ted Kennedy in MA). Based on demographics from past states, and assuming the percentages of AAs and whites hold from early voting (38% AA, 60% white), and a 60-40 white split (which may be too low), this thing ends up in the 58-42 Obama range.

Everybody thought Barack was surging in PA the last weekend of polling and he wound up 10 behind. Expect the same in NC. Indiana on the other hand will be close I think

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StandardDeviation:

I'm a bit skeptical of the Indiana poll. The cross tabs show Clinton up big with Males (54-35), and she trails Obama with female voters (45-41). That has to be a typo or this is a pretty useless poll.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/46_InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_IN_Dem_Poll_(5-02-08).pdf

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Only having a 7 percent lead is a huge deal considering Obama was ahead by 25 not even two weeks ago.

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ca-indp:

I agree, Obama hacks were touting > 15% lead which is pretty much vanished.

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ca-indp:

BHO will barely win even with large AA voters, which will show he losing ground big time in other groups.

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Shadar:

ca-indp, every single one of your posts wreaks of blatant hatred for Barack Obama. Can at you at least try to keep your posts respectful?

"I agree, Obama hacks were touting > 15% lead which is pretty much vanished."

Why do you have to call people who support Obama to be "hacks"? For that matter, you claim that citing Obama's 15% lead in NC means the person was a hack, even though it was a fact that polls showed a 15% lead. So someone is a hack if they cite facts?


Most of the people in these comments have been far more respectful lately but ca-indp continues to make these kinda of posts over and over and it degrades the entire comment section.

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IdahoMulato:

By analysis,just looking at the numbers without the crosstab, one can interpret this new poll to be that Obama has rebounded and attracting the undecideds. However, looking at the crosstabs means that the margin will depends on the turn-out for the various demographics and more especially white-black turn-out percentages. I hear there's already a huge AA turn-out and the fact the Chicago black pastors have come out strongly in favor of Obama will mean a lot for the AA undecideds. We expect Clinton to win In with a small margin and Obama will win NC maybe with a high single digit or double digits.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

If ever there was a poll that didn't mean anything, it would be this one. No one here is going to slam the pollster fot manipulating the demographis?

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boskop:

i think everyone likes to make predictions which is of course the addictive aspect of polling and blogs.

but i really wonder given the 'i'm not a racist' vote and 'the pastor disaster' event, what percentage of the electorate would now change their vote if they could do it again.

just wondering. but i think it's awfully significant because hindsight and time steadies the hand and mind and people often do back flips after the first blush of enthusiasm wears off.

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Cyril Washbrook:

Matthew: "Only having a 7 percent lead is a huge deal considering Obama was ahead by 25 not even two weeks ago."

ca-indp: "I agree, Obama hacks were touting > 15% lead which is pretty much vanished."

Hmm, let's have a look now shall we? For a start, Obama "hacks" don't run the polls, so perhaps you should have a chat to the polling organisations if you have serious objections to how polls are being interpreted. Secondly, I think it was Clinton who once had a lead by as much as 26 points in Pennsylvania a few weeks before the primary which was whittled down to nine points by polling day. And I believe that was cited as evidence that "the tide is turning".

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Tybo:

Cyril, CLinton did lead by 26 pts at one time, that was 2 months before the primary.
Obama's 25 pt lead was 2 WEEKS ago.

That's a huge difference.

When Clinton won penn. by double digits, it was a smack in the face to the Obama campaign.
At one point, before the "clinging to religion" remarks , the Obama campaign was talking about winning PA and ending the race.

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cinnamonape:

Tybo: Except Clinton did not win Pennsylvania "by double digits". "Double digits" was what her campaign kept saying would allow her to show the Super Delegates that she was more electable.

Obama's campaign said that an Obama victory WOULD end Clinton's campaign. But they didn't "predict" a victory...ever.

Pennsylvania was a "draw". It allowed Clinton to balance the delegates she lost in Texas (yes, she actually lost Texas in delegate numbers) and thus keep Obama's lead from expanding.

Obama will net delegates in these two elections. It is Clinton who has to keep it close, simply to allow her to stay in until she can gain some delegates back in the Appalachians. There will be many Super Delegates deciding in the interim...if she loses badly most will go to Obama. If not then the Supers may hold off. But after WV and Ky then comes several states that should be good for Obama.

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