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POLL: InsiderAdvantage IN (5/4)


InsiderAdvantage
n=502, crosstabs

Indiana
Clinton 48, Obama 44

 

Comments
yegnev:

Note the surprisingly high undecided rates among African Americans, Females and the 45-60 age group. I suspect the overlap among these three sets is high and something I haven't observed in prior polls.

It makes sense to me that many middle-aged AA women would be torn between Hillary and Obama. I wonder which way they would ultimately swing.

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JS:

Isn't the gender gap typically wider than this?

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Aaron_in_TX:

Yeah, a very high undecided number among women. The AA women have usually gone for Obama strongly, while the rest go for Cliton. Obama may not have that bad of a loss here if it doesn't break too strongly against him.

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insider advantage is very good at prddicting big states in small states they are wrong half the time and zogby has been horrible just like bill oreilly said jsut a few minutes agoMISSOURI SURVEY WAS THE ONLY TIME IT WAS OFF, AND THAT WAS BECAUSE CLARE MCKASKILL, WAS IN RURAL AREAS ALL OVER THE PLACE CAMPAIGNING, FOR HIM, AND BITTEGATE AND WRIGHT GATE HAD NOT SURFACED, EVER SINCE BITTERGATE AND WRIGHT GATE. USA SURVEY IS RIGHT ON THEMONEY AND EVEN BEFORE THAT THEY WERE RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!

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THE ZOGBY POLL AND EVERTIME HE POLLS IN PRIMARY AND NOT CAUCESSES HE IS OFF BY 10-20 POINTS LIKE OHIO CALIF.,NEW HAMpHIRE- AND WHEN IT COMES TO PRIMARIES ARG AND SURVEY USA USAULLY GET IT RIGHT THEY BOTH POLLS WERE DEAD ON IN CALF. NEW YORK OHIO AND FLORIDA!!! SO SURVEY USA AND ARG GET IT RIGHT IN PRIMARIES AND ZOGBY only IN CAUCASES---- imagine zogby said obama would win ohio by one point!!!NEW JERSEY AND MASSETUSSETTS, ALSO SURVEY GOT EXACTLY RIGHT,ZOGBY WAS OFFIN NEW JERSEY BY 10 POINTS AND IN MASS. HE WAS OFF BY 12 POINTS.

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John Paul Telhomme:

I will not include Ohio in any kind of analysis nor Texas, nor PA. Those are special cases where there were external influences. NAFTAgate derailed Ohio and Texas for Obama. The margins in Ohio would have been narrower and he would won TX outright.

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