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POLL: InsiderAdvantage NC (5/4)


InsiderAdvantage

North Carolina
Obama 48, Clinton 45

 

Comments
carl29:

I sure this guys will end with egg in their faces. This are the same people who just days ago had Hillary edging Obama by 2% in NC. C'mon it doesn't take more than common sense to see that that is off. Actually, I noticed that they were already spining the outcome by saying that those #'s depend on the AA turnout.

I keep my word. He's gonna get around 90% of the AA vote and somewhere around 35% of the white support. Keep in mind that I'm not a pollster; I am just an observer, but judging by some of the polls, I think I can do a better job projecting the winner. I say Obama's win for about 15%.

In IN Hillary for sure. I think that PA and IN are going to be very similar. I say Hillary's win by high single digits.

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jac13:

carl29,

I'm curious to know, in predicting a solid Hillary win in Indiana, what weight you are giving the Zogby poll showing it essentially tied for the third day in a row.

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carl29:

I just went through Insider Advantage's #'s for Georgia, remember that this company IS from Georgia. Well, surprise, surprise! they overstated Hillary's support and underestimated Obama's. They had Hillary around 36, 37% and Obama 51, 52%. The result at the end of the night? Hillary could not even reach the 30% and Obama was above 60%. In this case, zogby did a better job regarding Hillary's support which he had under 30%. However, none of the pollsters predicted Obama's support.

I think we are looking at the same thing tomorrow in NC. So far, no pollster have been able to predict Obama's support in the South. They don't seem to figure out the outcome when there is a large AA population. Why? No idea.

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carl29:

Hi jac13.

Well, the answer to your question is plain common sense. This whole race has come down to demographics. In IN demographics favor Clinton, so I think she will prevail.

If you notice, Obama's support never moves up beyond 45%, so this tells me that although people are not happy about Hillary, her losing support does not translate into his gainning support. I saw the same thing in PA, where his support in all the polls was always in the low 40's.

Called plain gut feelings.

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jac13:

carl29.

I'm no polling expert, to be sure, but I think the slightly younger electorate in IN may keep it closer than PA. And I have a hunch (informed, of course, by my hope) that Obama may eke out a close win there.

I agree with you that he'll win comfortably in NC, but I don't know about 15%.

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damitajo1:

Well, their last two PA polls had Clinton up by 10, then 7. She won by 9. Pretty good.

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Nevada:

This Insider Advantage poll deserves more consideration.

One, because it shows that Clinton has increased here total among whites to 58%, which the pollster says is close to the estimated 60% she needs from that demographic to win in North Carolina.

Secondly, it shows a softening of support for Obama among African-Americans -- Clinton received 17% support in this survey.

There are media stories out there saying that parts of rural North Carolina are seeing unheard of turnout in early voting, which bodes well for Clinton.

Also, Clinton has the veteran California political operative "Ace" Smith working NC voter turnout; he engineered the huge absentee vote among females in California that delivered a 10-point win for Clinton there, despite polls showing a shift toward Obama.

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THE ZOGBY POLL AND EVERTIME HE POLLS IN PRIMARY AND NOT CAUCESSES HE IS OFF BY 10-20 POINTS LIKE OHIO CALIF.,NEW HAMpHIRE- AND WHEN IT COMES TO PRIMARIES ARG AND SURVEY USA USAULLY GET IT RIGHT THEY BOTH POLLS WERE DEAD ON IN CALF. NEW YORK OHIO AND FLORIDA!!! SO SURVEY USA AND ARG GET IT RIGHT IN PRIMARIES AND ZOGBY only IN CAUCASES---- imagine zogby said obama would win ohio by one point!!!NEW JERSEY AND MASSETUSSETTS, ALSO SURVEY GOT EXACTLY RIGHT,ZOGBY WAS OFFIN NEW JERSEY BY 10 POINTS AND IN MASS. HE WAS OFF BY 12 POINTS

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