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POLL: InsiderAdvantage NC (5/5; Final)


InsiderAdvantage

North Carolina
Obama 47, Clinton 43

 

Comments
adocarbog:

This Matt Towery guy cannot do math I swear!!!

How can Clinton Magic number be 60% among white voters. 60%-40% win among whites (assume 30% AA turnout) and assume she gets 20% of AA voters the result would be>
Obama 52%
Clinton 48%

However, she will get much less than 20% of AA votes and they will be a higher % of vote than 30% as early voting stat by Secretary of Stae in NC puts them at 40.6%.

If she finishes within 10% it will be a surprise.

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goawaybillary:

**********NEWSFLASH**************


The brown frontrunner wins handily....the female comes in second place, fatally injures herself, and needs to be euthanized.


**********************************


Election headline or Kentucky Derby....YOU be the judge!

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boskop:

billary:
you know, even if obama wins to have supporters like you is enough to make anyone cringe. every other word in that post is offensive and idiotic.

people like you dont belong in political discussions. go stick more obama signs on people's lawns and pins in your voodoo dolls but keep it to yourself.

shouting and name calling doesn't get the job done. are you for obama because you want another kind of politics? if so, your posts hardly reflect that. so one must assume you want him for 'other' reasons and judging from your nastiness i'd say those reasons have nothng whatsoever to do with issues but rather with anger and retribution.

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Tybo:

You do know that the Horse Obama picked finihsed sixth, don't you? (Colonel JOhn)

Or is Big Brown an acceptable (racist and Disgusting) term for Obama?
are you playing the race card?

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Rasmus:

I am looking forward to reading their mea culpa, if they publish something like an excuse on 5/7.

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Nickberry:

Bill Clinton has been hitting the rural counties and a good turnout there bodes well for Hillary.

Whereas, Obama may again be missing his opportunity to get his African American base energized to vote in large numbers... the problem he had in Philadelphia because he was courting the white voters. (Note: The AA turn out in the Philly area was below previous election numbers.)


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mago:

Well, the only piece of evidence I have wrt Obama's AA base in Carolina is that 40.6% of early voters were black. Doesn't shout 'apathy' to me, but YMMV.

Insider Advantage, according to an analysis on Daily Kos today, has had an average bias even worse than Zogby's, +10 for Clinton. I guess Towery relies on the advantage of being an "insider" instead of doing actual statistical analysis and hard mathy stuff.

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goawaybillary:

mccain in 08 boskop. remember what happens when you assume.


i love watching the dems tear themselves apart. i want obama so the the repubs can feast! feast i tell you!

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JS:

Mark,

I know you don't want to spend time moderating these discussions, but is it possible to scan them and keep obvious hateful messages like goawaybillary's, and other clearly political messages, off this site.

Many of us find useful commentary by thoughtful people on this site, and these kinds of comments are distracting and offensive.

Thank you.

JS

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The problem with whites in the south, especially rural whites, is that they are Republicans for the most part. Since AA's are almost unanimosly in the Democratic party, these rural whites see the Democrats at the party of the blacks. Therefore, I think it is pretty hard for Bill to get a large number of votes there since Republicans CANNOT vote in the democratic primary in NC.

Racial tensions in the south make white people, especially uneducated, be Republican and blacks Democrat. Why do you think that Democrats lost the South? Because of the party's, Lyndon Johnson, support to the civil rights movement.

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Election Inspection's final prediction:

Indiana:
X Stryker: Clinton by 6.5% for 4 net delegates
Elliot: Clinton by 3.4% for zero net delegates

North Carolina:
X Stryker: Obama by 12% for 11 net delegates
Elliot: Obama by 18.8% for 15 net delegates

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Nickberry:

Hey... carl29... In North Carolina up to 40% of the electorate are African American... and yes mostly Democrats. Yet, the number of new Democratic registrants tripled from 2004... and like Pennsylvania some of these may have previously considered himself Independent and Republican.

Yes, Obama is favored, but no where do the OLD rules apply as in southern white people are uneducated and racist. Quit the stereotyping. That is what got Obama himself in trouble.

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cinnamonape:

Well here's some real data (at last) from the NC Sec of States Office on the absentee/one-stop voters.

First some context. From a 2007 census estimate, the racial makeup of the state is 70% white American, 22.3% black, 1.2% American Indian, and the remaining 6.5% are Hispanic or Latino. In terms of voter, the registration has been explosive:
Voter registration as of today (via State Board of Elections):
Democratic: 2,633,381 Republican: 1,933,658 Unaffiliated: 1,244,739 Total: 5,811,778

* North Carolina Party Statistics Report 2007, Party: Republicans: 34%, Democrats: 45%, Unaffiliated: 21%
* North Carolina Age Statistics Report 2007, Age: Ages 18-25: 10%; 26-40: 27%; 41-65: 46%; over 66: 17%

Absentee Counts as of 05/06/2008 6:00am:
Absentee Mail Ballots Returned: 24,900 Absentee Onestop Ballots Cast: 471,006

% of Early Voters Men 38.7% Women 60.8% [That might seem good for Clinton, but see below]

White 56.5% Black 39.9% [Which means that blacks are disproportionately voting early- they make up 22% of the population]
White Women 33.2% White Men 23.1% [Which suggests that 37.6% of the total sample are non-White females...very high proportionate to their population [62% of the female sample]; Black males are outnumbered by white males 15% to 23% but that's still 39% of the male sample]

Democrat 84.1% Unaffiliated 15.8%

If this turnout is mirrored in the general on-site turnout then it will likely be an Obama landslide.

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tom brady:

Cinnamon - keep in mind that those pollsters who are using survey responses as is are getting AA's at lower than 40%, even when they include early voters. so it's hard to tell at this point whether AA's are going to come out at 40% in the final numbers. I'd guess closer to 36%, but it's a guess...

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Shadar:

"White 56.5% Black 39.9% [Which means that blacks are disproportionately voting early- they make up 22% of the population]"

Remember, that 22% is mostly all represented in the 45% of the populace that makes up the democratic party. Thus 40% is about the percentage of the democratic party that is black voters. And considering dems makeup 85% of the voting populace and only 15% are independents the 40% number is not all that large. It wouldn't be unheard of for this number to remain in the 35-40% range in the actual voting.

If Obama wins this block at least 80/20, but likely to be by 85-90% then he is going to have a large blowout.

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Mike_in_CA:

interestingly, zogby's final poll that shows Obama 14% ahead, still has AAs around 32% turnout. The kicker is the white vote, which only broke for Clinton 52-37. If election day white vote mirrors those numbers (i.e. 58-42 or so), AND AA turnout holds at 39%, the final result would be ASTOUNDING -- higher than ANYONE has predicted. I did the numbers: 61-39. That would be ridiculous, but probably impossible.

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