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POLL: InsiderAdvantage North Carolina (4/29)


InsiderAdvantage

North Carolina
n=571, 4/29
Clinton 44, Obama 42

 

Comments
Tybo:

It doesn't seem that this poll could be correct.
However, other polls are showing that CLinton has made some gains, while Obama has dropped some points.

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Mike_in_CA:

two immediate problems here:

1. AA % of electorate is 25%. Total AA % of state population is 23%, so IA is assuming that AA's make up the same % of the DEMOCRATIC electorate as they do in the entire state? Not happening. Early voting #s from the Board of Elections show AA turnout is 38% of Dem voters so far. Expect that number to hold.

2. Notwithstanding the weighting issues, this poll puts Obama's AA support at 62% to Clinton's 20%!!! Also not happening. The week before PA, IA had Obama's AA % at 62% also and we all know how that ended up.

Something is up with these guys. But, by all means, let the media hype up a Clinton surge in the state, so that when Obama wins by 12% next week it will be HUGE, just like Clinton's 10% in PA was last week.

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Andrew_in_California:

Well I suspect that the endorsement of the NC Governor probably helped some undecideds in favor of Clinton. Dunno what else would randomly edge things in favor of Clinton other than the news has been light on her skeletons.

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ByTheNumbers:

What do we call the now-consistent pattern for AA responders to under-report their support for Obama? The Obama-Effect?

It would appear that the much discussed "Bradley-Effect" is a cross-racial phenomena, which has some poll impact on both sides.

I concur with Mike's comments about the likely result in NC, but I suspect that it will be be perceived as an expected result. No one but the real junkies follows the polls on a sufficiently daily basis to perceive these kind of bounces. The popular perception will be that he was "supposed" to win by 10-15 points.

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Shadar:

"Well I suspect that the endorsement of the NC Governor probably helped some undecideds in favor of Clinton. Dunno what else would randomly edge things in favor of Clinton other than the news has been light on her skeletons."

While this would generally be correct, in this case it may not be. Governors generally have big political machines to help the candidates they support, but in order to truly mobilize that they need to endorse further in front of the election. Second, while this Gov is popular he is term-limited and people no longer need to suck up to him for his support, so he doesn't have near the influence he otherwise would have had.

This will prob be a 2% swing at most. We've seen that people in this election have a firm idea of who they will vote for no matter what happens. Obama has solid support, Hillary has solid support. The undecided voters go 60/40 Hillary/Obama. If a state is younger, more educated, or very white or very black it goes Obama. If it is a mixed state with older less educated voters it goes Hillary. Everything else competes for the last 5-9% of the vote.

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PHGrl:

Agree with most of the other posters..

If we simply adjust the findings based on race given the most recent data on the democratic electorate (58% W /38% AA) -- the results change to 40 C 46 O

And if we up the AA vote (many seem to not be buying that only 64% of AA would vote Obama) for Obama to something folks would consider to be more reasonable (80%?) the results change further to 40 C 51 C

A poll for NC with only 25% AA would seems to have little credibility. Even if you take into consideration the 1.1 million unaffiliated voters who could show up and vote at the primary (which is more white) � the potential electorate for the primary would be 66% / 29%

The 15% undecided for AA does seem odd - but perhaps this is reaction to the Wright controversy and Obama's denouncement of him? Perhaps put off some AA likely voters??

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