Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: InsiderAdvantage Republican Primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Michigan


Five new InsiderAdvantage statewide surveys of likely Republican primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Michigan (conducted 10/2 through 10/3) finds:

  • Among 1,339 likely caucus-goers in Iowa, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (24% to 16%) in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Gov. Mike Huckabee both trail at 13%, Sen. John McCain at 10%, and Sen. Sam Brownback at 5%.
  • Among 1,822 likely primary voters in New Hampshire, Romney leads Giuliani (28% to 20%) while McCain trails at 17%, Thompson and Huckabee both at 8%, and Rep. Ron Paul at 6%.
  • Among 1,281 in South Carolina, Thompson (at 21%) leads Giuliani, Romney, and McCain (all at 16%) while Huckabee trails at 11%.
  • Among 725 in Florida, Giuliani leads Thompson (29% to 19%) while Romney trails at 16%, McCain at 10%, and Huckabee at 6%.
  • Among 1,190 in Michigan, Giuliani edges out Romney (19% to 16%), while McCain trails at 15%, Thompson at 14%, Huckabee at 6%, and Paul at 5%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

We will add links once they are available.

 

Comments
Rich B.:

I object very strongly to your inclusion of Ron Paul in the New Hampshire and Michigan poll results! How can his supporters feel properly marginalized if you continue to occasionally reference his name?

____________________

George Whitfield:

I notice an upward trend for Ron Paul. Interesting and encouraging.

____________________

lI:

Ron's steadily climbing. Once he puts gets name recognition in New Hampshire, I think he's going to do very well there.

____________________

Patrick:

link??

____________________

Paul:

These results appear consistent with other recent polls, except for ARG in SC and MI. Difference in MI between this IA poll and recent ARG is huge (23 points) for Romney. In SC the scenario for Giuliani, Romney and Thompson is very different. Are these differences due to the fluid nature of the race? ... whether and when candidates are advertising and campaigning? ... sampling differences ... or all of the above?

____________________

Chantal:

Maybe I'm missing something, but how many phone calls per minute do you have to make in order to get 1,339 likely Republican caucus attendees over the course of just two nights? What kind of incidence rate are we talking about?

And this doesn't take into consideration the fact that InsiderAdvantage was also polling in four other states these evenings. Who is paying for this? Are these robopolls? Was the call center in the North Poll?

____________________

Mark Blumenthal:

I forwarded Chantal's question to Matt Towery. Towery's response, and my own thoughts, are now posted here.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR