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POLL: InsiderAdvantage South Carolina GOP Primary


A new InsiderAdvantage statewide survey of 670 likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina (conducted 12/3 through 12/4) finds former Gov. Mike Huckabee (at 23%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Sen. Fred Thompson (both at 17%) in a statewide primary; former Mitt Romney trails at 14%, Sen. John McCain at 10%, Rep. Ron Paul at 6%.

Editor's note: We have taken down the link to the InsiderAdvantage crosstabluations we posted earlier today, as something is apparently amiss in those crosstabs. The gender crosstabulation of the trial heat question (#2) for example, shows Huckabee winning 33.1% of men, 24.6% of women but only 23.0% of all voters. That result is impossible, especially since the subsamples of men (n=284) and women (n=386) add up to the total sample size (n=670). There are similar discrepancies in the support by gender for Romney, McCain and Paul. InsiderAdvantage had no immediate explanation and promised to look into the issue. We will update this post when we hear more, but advise extra caution in interpreting these results.

 

Comments
rao:

Giuliani is listed twice -- Romney actually "trails at 14%"

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looking at crosstabs:

The crosstabs here are interesting. Thompson gets propped up by his 4 supporters out of the 14 sampled from the 18-29 age group. The one hispanic voter indicated he was supporting Rudy, but was weighted as representing about 12 voters. Given these small subsample sizes, I think these crosstabs have to look much better for Huckabee and Romney and significantly worse for Giuliani and Thompson.

Still, Romney is running terribly with voters under 45. Terribly.

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