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POLL: InsiderAdvantage Virginia


InsiderAdvantage
Obama 52, Clinton 37

 

Comments
SCAron:

InsiderAdvantage appears to have been under on Obama by around 5-10 points in all the previous states (SC, AL, GA, TN), but pretty accurate on Clinton. Do you know if they're recalibrated, or should I hope that they're off again (I am an Obama fan)?

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Rorgg:

This matches up pretty well with the other VA poll over the same period. If I had to stab at a number, it'd be a little lower, say Obama +14.

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concerned citizen:

EXCUSE ME, HATE TO BREAK UP YOUR FIGURES AND CALCULATIONS: But why did ALL of you FORGET about ALL the candidates?
No wonder why candidates drop out, they are not all being treated the same way. Mike GRAVEL has some great ideas about how we should run our country, and no body cares. He has not gotten any time to talk. No polls list him, no debates called on him, he doesn't exist. He isn't even on all the ballots for the dem primary. That's another thing: Why do we have to only have 1 dem, 1 republican, 1 green party? 130 some odd schmucks all vied to be the governor of california. They all had the chance to be listed in the offical pamphlet to the voters. Yet we have to narrow down the playing field for President? That's crap!!!!

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RS:

@Rorgg:
What other VA poll over the same period - can you provide a link? The pollster.com page for VA/Dem lists only two polls, one older and the other this IA poll.

@SCAron: 52-37 still leaves 10% undecided (1% other). The final outcome will depend on (a) undecideds (b) uncertainties (+/-4% for this poll).
In Georgia, for instance, if you believe the exit polls, over 75% of the 20% who made up their minds in the last week (except Feb 5) went for Senator Obama, while the 10% who made up their minds on Feb 5 were split.
And then, of course, there's the demographic break-up (IA provides ZERO information) and likely-voter-screen issues...

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roy:

The other poll referred to is probably SUSA:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f7ee42ed-323d-4011-8ae8-46c7a05b9878

O-59, C-39. Looks like both polls have them running even among white voters, which naturally would be a disaster for Clinton.

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rowjimmy:

It's still delegates that matter. Even if BHO takes VA by 57-39, or similar, he might only net ~45 of the 83 delegates. Remember, the CD math with proportional voting makes all of the popular vote stuff a bit misleading. He will win for sure in VA. Everyone knows that, just like we all know the media will try to crown him the national winner after Feb 12th. But, delegates will still be razor thin margins.

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roy:

45-38 in delegates seems like a rather low margin if the vote is 57-39; I understand that much depends on individual CDs, but that can cut both ways.

The point that a lot of people are missing in the 'nobody can win with pledged delegates' articles is that if one candidate builds up a significant lead in pledged delegates, there will be tremendous pressure on the party to follow the will of the people who actually voted. _If_ he wins almost all the contests this week, Obama will indeed get a lot of ositive media, which could help him amass a lead of, say, 200 delegates by mid-March.

It would be extremely self-destructive for the party insiders to orchestrate a reversal of so large a lead.

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joshua bradshaw:

I will only say this after looking at a lot of stuff said primarily not on this site, but on others and the words coming from obama's mouth that Hillary's supporters will line up behind him, but his will not line up behind her then I must say that this Hillary supporter will not fall in line and I will vote McCain just to spite him. If he is the nominee I hope he goes down losing 49 of the 50 states I will not be so mean as to hope he loses his home state. He is so arrogant he just reminds me of a jock who has a huge sense of entitlement. Hillary is the Smart one who can actually help this country.

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RS:

@joshua:
Well, there are plenty of poor, white voters who apparently vote against their economic interests for the Republican party. So spite might as well as a reason.
However, the Clinton strategy at the beginning of the primaries was to stack up a war-chest so large that every other candidate would be knocked out, rendering the primaries moot. If that is not arrogance, I don't know what is.

@roy: Thanks for the link. Looks like pollster finally posted it as well.

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kjblair:

Actually, a 45-38 split in delegates wouldn't be unexpected with a 57-39 split in the popular vote. Since most of the delegates are allotted on a Congressional District basis, most districts that are assigned even number of delegates usually split 50-50. It's the districts with an odd number of delegates that really make the difference.

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Dr John :

I have to agree with Joshua. There was a time when I would have considered Obama, but his ego about how Hillary's voters were most certainly vote for him is a real turn off. I will hold my nose and vote for McCain. Hillary is so much more informed on the issues. As an Iraq war veteran, I'd rather she end that fiasco. Go Hillary, can't wait to see you in Pennsylvania.

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tony:

i feel so badly having been an obama supporter. his support is extraordinarily rude and immature. for all this talk about change, it's just more of the same. incredible.

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tony:

i feel so badly having been an obama supporter. his support is extraordinarily rude and immature. for all this talk about change, it's just more of the same. incredible.

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