Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: IVR Polls Texas


IVR Polls

Texas
Clinton 50, Obama 45... McCain 54, Huckabee 29, Paul 8

 

Comments
Brian:

This poll is garbage due to the fact that it has Clinton winning Latinos 75% to 23%. That's not going to happen since the average Latino in Texas is 30 years old and the majority of them live in the Dallas/Houston regions.

In my opinion, the Latino split will be in the 58-61% range to 38-41% range. If you factor in those numbers as well as Obama earning atleast 80% of the Black vote he will easily be on his way to victory in less than two weeks.

As of right now, I see Obama winning 54% to 46% based on his amazing widespread organization across the state. My prediction factors in the triumph Obama will have with white-men, and college educated individuals.

Let's not forget that the teamster's endorsed Obama this week and that will play a key role in the outcome of this hybrid primary/caucus. The majority of the factories are no longer in Mexico because they are now in CHINA!!! NAFTA SUCKS

____________________

Brian:

This poll is garbage due to the fact that it has Clinton winning Latinos 75% to 23%. That's not going to happen since the average Latino in Texas is 30 years old and the majority of them live in the Dallas/Houston regions.

In my opinion, the Latino split will be in the 58-61% range to 38-41% range. If you factor in those numbers as well as Obama earning atleast 80% of the Black vote he will easily be on his way to victory in less than two weeks.

As of right now, I see Obama winning 54% to 46% based on his amazing widespread organization across the state. My prediction factors in the triumph Obama will have with white-men, and college educated individuals.

Let's not forget that the teamster's endorsed Obama this week and that will play a key role in the outcome of this hybrid primary/caucus. The majority of the factories are no longer in Mexico because they are now in CHINA!!! NAFTA SUCKS

____________________

Caden:


AGREED BRIAN!


This is just like the Wisconsin polls that had Obama "even" with Clinton. We all know how that turned out.


The caucus system will give Obama more delegates.


Once Latinos hear tonight that Clinton won't give illegals drivers licenses, it'll be all over.


Good night and good luck.

____________________

rowjimmy:

"This poll is garbage..."

Is any poll that shows Obama behind garbage? I get that sense from the majority of the posts here.

I have a question about turnout. What was IVR's projection of Latino and Black turnout? What about Independents? Republicans? SUSA showed that 28% of the primary may involve Independents and Republicans. Without knowing exactly the weights given to each group in the poll, I don't know if it's decent or not.

For instance, if they put Latino turn out around 40%, that's VERY high.

If they put it at 25%, I think that's too low.

SUSA projected 32% Latino 18% black

Cross tabs are becoming my obsession.

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

I wouldn't say the poll sucks. It gives the same result as SurveyUSA and the top candidates are almost within the margin of error of each other. Added to the others, Obama seems to have the momentum.

____________________

Mike:

I agree with Brian. Clinton has been pushing hard in South Texas because the young Latinoes are breaking for Obama. I also don't believe Clinton is winning 30% with whites? Those same crosstabs were estimated in WI, GA, and other states and simple was not true. Look at exit polling in MD, DC, VA, and WI. Obama broken even with women and won with white voters. These polls do not reflect the demographical change in the electorate.

____________________

"Garbage" may be overstating it a bit, but I do think that there's little reason to believe that Latinos are so heavily on Clinton's side - especially in larger cities.

At least we have cross-tabs, and I personally don't like dumping on any poll that explains their reasoning in such detail.

However, I firmly believe this is entirely academic and there is no way that Clinton can gain a substantial majority of delegates from Texas, meaning that only Ohio has a chance to change the race - and it's not enough. As the tone keeps turning nastier and the 527 is let loose in Ohio, we can expect Pelosi, Gore, Edwards, and other party leaders to step in and call a halt to this.

____________________

adam:

let the people decide who they want. Don't thrust your opinion as facts. Anyways, in due time we will know that. But one thing is certain--if Clinton doesn't win both Texas and Ohio, it's game over for her.

____________________

roy:

The 75-25 Latino split is a raw unweighted number, so it's hard to know what to do with it (also hard to know why the pollster bothered citing it). He also ran a breakdown by senate district, which seems pretty bizarre to me given that we're talking a sample size of 15 or 20 people. What's the point?

Anyway, here's something to consider, a comparison of turnout in Houston and Dallas to the Lower Rio Grande Valley (expected to favor Clinton).

2004 2008
Harris/Dallas 1641 17,858
Hidalgo 3858 5793

If that's a sign of things to come, a lot of polls are going to look bad.

____________________

Marc Kaplan:

Another new Texas poll by Constituent Dynamics: http://www.kxan.com/Global/story.asp?S=7902492

____________________

Another Mike:

Rasmussen also has a new Texas poll out: Clinton 47 - Obama 44

Seems like most of the polls are in agreement--tight race with a slight edge to Clinton. Of course there's still 12 days to go.

____________________

jr1886:

Brian,

Hope!!

Remember Wisconsin? No one gives us a chance when we predicted an Obama victory of double digits. I had Obama 57% to 43% and I think you had Obama 58% to 42% for Hillary. We basically nailed this thing!!

Today, I worked with the SurveyUSA crosstabs and extrapolate what the upshot for Obama among the many subgroups will be. Not surprisingly, my prediction come very close to yours, posted above. Here's what I found:

Obama is pegged at 35% among Latino now but I think he will reach or break 40% because the majority of this voting bloc is less than or equal to 30 years old. So Obama can earned up to 43% of the Latino vote. African American, SurveyUSA has Obama at 77%. This won't stand, Obama will get aroung 85% or higher. He will close the gap among women now at 35%. He will get around 44% and increase his edge among men.

So with all that, Obama will win 53% to 47% for Hillary.

____________________

Moishele:

That's not going to happen since the average Latino in Texas is 30 years old and the majority of them live in the Dallas/Houston regions.

Obviously you've never been to Texas.

____________________

Jerkatron:

Besides analyzing the polls, the primary/caucus hybrid state of Texas apportions delegates in congressional districts based on the voter turnout in for the previous presidential and congressional elections. This means that in the heavy latino areas of the south, much much fewer delegates will be at stake than in the north, because they had a low turnout. And conversely, the AA vote will be pumped up, in terms of voter per delegate.

Even if Clinton wins, which is obviously allows her a huge media coup, she could very well be in almost the same situation in terms of the delegate count.

If the national narrative still claims Obama as a frontrunner, Clinton could still lose the nomination.

____________________

John - Spokane, WA:

Consider this (Republicans who support Obama only because they know he cant beat McCain OR Huckabee, thats right I said Huckabee since you seem to have a little problem in your Party now) HILLARY DOES NOT have to win by alot in Texas because SHE IS going to win by ALOT in OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, VERMONT & RI.
How do you worn out Reagonites like those apples ?

____________________

Yosef:

Latinos do not get swayed by speeches and you would have to be a strugling latino to understand that Obama and his staff will not help the latinos.

By the way, Do you really think that Republicans are going to vote for Obama?? Dream on!! Hillary is too much of a class act to attack him. Republicans will mention his muslim background as the reason he opposed the war in Iraq. They will attack his wife without mercy. They will question his patriotism and his national security policy.

All we are doing is handing over the presidency to a republican for 4 more years. Afterwards, the black community will stop following the democratic party and claim racism was the reason Obama did not win.

No People! republicans and independents will not support Obama as they have in the primaries. Republicans hate Clinton, because Clinton gave the nation an 8 year period of peace and prosperity. Wake up and smell the coffee!!

____________________

tom:

A Union endorsement is the kiss of death....look how much the foodmakersofamerica(or whatever) union did for Obama in Nevada....it was suppose to help sooooooooooooooo much and the press was all over it...the unions are good for one thing, and that is to give money.....they are way past there prime in "delivering" any subsatantial amount of votes.

I expect Hillary to win all the states on the 4th, by single digits, but a win is a win is a win and her she will remain on life support, then it is to PA.

____________________

JOHN MEHNERT:

Yosef,

I coouldn't have said it better myself. The eason Mccain is debating Obama and making him look like the democratic winner is because the republicans would prefer him rather than clinton. They know that they will destroy Obama, and that they don't have as good of a chance against Hillary. You just have to ask yourself why is Mccain so adament in portraying Obama as the winner.It's a strategy which the american people are aeting up.Hillary brings experience and name recognition, and the republicans know this. It's funny how people get easily fooled by well polished Rhetoric. I prefer democrats but I don't believe Obama will have a chance against Mccain, Hillary does.
Another thing is that most of these polls are way off except for 1 or 2 of them.
I have noticed that SurveyUsa(SUSA) is probably the most accurate. they were accurate about the end results of the california democratic votes on February 5th.
In conclusion: Obama is all hype and in the end he will lose against Mccain.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR