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POLL: J Street National Jewish Adults


J Street/ Gerstein|Agne Strategic Communications
6/29/08 - 7/3/08; 800 self-identified adult American Jews, 3.5%
(release, memo, data)

President Bush's Job...:
as President: Approve 16, Disapprove 83
handling the Arab-Israeli conflict: Approve 29, Disapprove 71

National
Obama 62, McCain 32
Generic Dem 69, Generic Rep 27

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bush: 22 / 74
Obama: 60 / 34
McCain: 34 / 57
Leiberman: 37 / 48

 

Comments
1magine:

What? BO's only winning by 32 points? Well that's so close. He must have a Jewish voter problem.
**************NEWS FLASH*************** All next week on MSM we will examine why BO is failing to win Jewish support, and JM's plan to win the election by capturing the Jewish American vote. Also why rape jokes, ugly names to call your wife, making fun of defenseless teenage girls, voting against requiring HMOs that cover Viagra from covering birth control pills, and voting for a bill that criminalizes abortion even in the case of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother makes JM the best choice for women in America.

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marctx:

Obama is 16% behind Kerry in 2004 among Jewish voters and 7 points behind the generic democrat this poll. You decide if Obama has a Jewish problem.

http://www.thesolomonproject.org/jewishvote.pdf

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Arturius:

It's awesome when the Left whistles past the graveyard, specifically on BHO's sub-par numbers with Jews and non-Starbucks whites. If they are happy with BHO's level of support in the Jewish community, then so am I.

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brambster:

The only state with a sizable Jewish population that is even in play is Florida, and they are still only 3.7% of the population there. The nationwide percentage is only 2.2%. Asian's are 4.2% of the population according to the 2000 census, but there are no polls specific of that group that I am aware of. I'm pretty sure that Asians favor Obama by almost the same margins, especially considering that their population is primarily centered in urban areas of Blue states.

I don't mean to dismiss a religious/ethnic group for any other reason than the fact that movement in the voting preferences means so little at this small percentage, especially when it probably won't matter at all outside of Florida.

This poll was however very appropriate for the Jewish community, and I'm sure that it is valuable to that community on many fronts to track such things. I just don't see much relevance to the general election. Interesting numbers nevertheless.

I wonder what the non-Jewish/non-White Hispanic White vote would be, especially men. I don't understand why this group so strongly favors Republicans even in predominantly secular very Blue states.

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Uri:

My impression of Jewish voters is that that they fall into one of four bins:
- Older retired jews (think FL) who tend to be Republican anyway and for whom pro-Israeli policy is still a concern. Obama will have a hard time with them.
- Religious jews who tend to be right-wingers; these mostly live in NY which is Dem anyway.
- Young professional "hardline liberals" that are natural Obama supporters. However, some have the internal jewish guilt-complex and therefore try to show that they are more "citizens of the world" than jews and therefore may actually want an anti-Israel policy; these may end up voting for Nader; in fact, the Nader campaign has been issuing a lot of pro-Palestinian emails this week.

The vast majority of jewish voters, however, are younger reform, secular, or atheists who have limited connection to the Jewish identity (e.g., many are in mixed marriages and may not even identify as jews except when specifically asked) and are therefore less likely to side with McCain for the pro-Israeli view. These are traditionally democrats anyway, but some may still swing based on their perception of the candidates affinity to Judaism and Israel.

Obama's trip to the middle east with likely reduce his numbers in the Jewish population; as there is significant anger over the flip-flop on Jerusalem; the original AIPAC speech seemed as pandering. In this visit he will have to talk to Arab leaders, and will be saying things to please them.

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Uri:

@brambster: I fully agree. From an electoral standpoint, jews have minimal impact on the elections this year: NY is solid Dem, FL is likely to end up Rep, PA leans Dem, OH jews will be offset by increased AA vote, and all the new battleground states have few jews.

However, there is a perception (not sure if its true) that jews tend to be more politically active, to contribute more to political causes, and if you agree with that "Socialists for Obama" post, they also control and own the media :)

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Borman:

Uri writes: "there is a perception (not sure if its true) that jews tend to be more politically active, to contribute more to political causes..."

Seems this survey validates that perception:
- 97% registered to vote
- 92% almost certain to vote
- 42% give to political campaigns

Given that Jews comprised 5% of all votes in FL in 2004, a difference between 60% and 80% supporting Obama would be a 2% difference in the overall vote. That can easily swing the state.

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Louis:

Forida is probably not in play in fact no state with a significant Jewish VOTING population is in play. However fundraising is a different issue The amount of money given to Democratic ( to a lesser extent Republican) candiates is a much higher % of the total fundraising money.
Hence candiates will be cognizant of the opinions of Jewish dornors and especially well heeled Jewish organizations. Whether or not those who provides these funds are totally in line with the opinion of Jewish voters as a whole.

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sixtyfoursixth:

Unfortunately, there seems to be a lot of Jewish Americans who think that bombing Iran is a great idea. They are willing to have another war blunder, this time in the name of the Jewish state and oil. The Iranian threat on Israel is full of hot air and sabre rattling. A war should be easily avoidable. Still a majority have their senses in this poll, but not enough... YET. Seeing as how Jewish Americans make up only .2%* of the US military, and there are 0 Jews in Iran these days, the US invasion of Iran is a pretty forbidding thought.

*http://www.aztlan.net/jewsusarmedforces.htm

**I am a Jewish American

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sherman:

The implication that Obama has a "jewish" voter problem because he is lagging behind Kerry's numbers by 13% is rather silly. The mainstream media created the false impression that droves of jewish voters would not vote for Obama because he is black and there is historical tension between blacks and jews. However, as of this particular polling snapshot, a great majority of jews still support Obama. So there goes another MSM "conventional wisdom" point down the drain.

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