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POLL: Latino Decisions National


Latino Decision
Pacific Market Research/
University of Washington political scientists Matt Barreto and Gary Segura

National Latinos**
Obama 63, McCain 24
Florida: Obama 43, McCain 42
AZ, CO, NM and NV: Obama 57, McCain 31

**Latino Decisions surveyed 800 Latino registered voters in 21 states. Registered voters were identified using the complete voter registration databases for each state, and then merged with a Spanish-surname list from the U.S. Census. Phone calls were then randomly made to the phone list of registered voters.

All respondents are verified to be Latino, and verified to be registered voters. The survey was conducted by telephone, and available in English and Spanish, depending on the preference of the Latino respondent.

 

Comments
AdamT:

That would be the end of McCain if these numbers hold up at all.

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carl29:

I told you so! I know my people.

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Mike_in_CA:

@carl29: Haha! (btw, What state are you from?)

If the numbers for AZ, CO, NM and NV are only 57-31 and the national numbers are 63-24, that must mean Latinos here in CA (or in TX I suppose) are even more Obama skewed! That's amazing.

I can tell you one thing, here in CA I laugh when I hear John McCain threaten to play here. Although a small part of me wishes it were true so that I could at least get to see Barack speak once! Us poor Californian's (and before this, I was in CT, even worse), always miss out on the General Election. Darnit for being so blue!

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carl29:

Well, I am a hispanic woman, born and raised in Central America. Since the primaries I also stated that Hispanics will NOT vote for John McCain. Whenever I heard silly things like "Oh, hispanics will never vote for a black man" or "If Hillary is not the nominee, Democrats are going to lose the hispanics vote." I only rolled my eyes and talked to myself: Oh lord, forgive their ignorance! They have no idea about hispanics.

The only group that McCain can count on is Cubans. Any Republican sweep the CUBAN vote here in South Florida. Cubans in Florida are EXTREMELY REPUBLICAN, man! you have no idea. For these people republicans do no wrong. But hispanics, other than cubans, are OVERWHELMINGLY DEMOCRAT. So, when we talk about New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado as batttleground states, Obama is going to benefit from hispanic support.

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josephj:

The Florida results suggest some truth to the recent speculation that younger Cubans can't be counted as a reliably conservative voting block.

@Mike_in_CA: Seriously! If you check McCain's "Strategy Map" video he talks about how they've got a great shot in CA. It's laughable. I would love for his campaign to dump their millions into what is essentially a black hole for the GOP in '08, but I bet they're bluffing.

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carl29:

Hi josephj, it's true that younger cubans, born here or those who came to the US after 1980, are less republican than the older generation. However, the most notorious "change," of hispanic support for republicans here in Florida, has much more to do with other hispanics, non-cuban hispanics, becoming US citizens or moving from other states.

There is a whole new generation of hispanics who are getting the right to vote and who are sick and tired of this "quasi dictatorship" that Cubans, republican cubans, have in politics. Take my case as an example, I became a US citizen on June 13, 2006 and as soon as possible registered to vote as a democrat. Why as a democrat? Well, this is my way to help push these republicans into a minority. It goes kind of like this: Most non-cuban hispanics are growing more and more tired of cubans in Miami. Since cubans here in Miami tend to be republican, then you register as a democrat to counterbalace the power these people have.

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Mike_in_CA:

@carl29: Congrats on citizenship. This is your first Prez election! No wonder you are so excited!! :)

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carl29:

YES!!!!!!! I'm totally crazy over this. I tell my husband this all the time: How lucky I am to have become a citizen right in this time. I feel so blessed!

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mruth:

Can any of you comment on Hispanic turnout? What is the enthusiasm level this year compared to 2000 or 2004? What is Obama's visibility vs. McCain's in English and Spanish-language advertisements and press? Are you hearing anything? Your comments about the anti-Cuban emigre vote dynamic in FL are very interesting, by the way. I am a 2nd generation E.European (my father fled the Red Army) and I've been surprised at the anti-Bush feeling that showed up beginning in 2003. The old folks are still pretty Republican for secular libertarian economic reasons, but strongly anti-war.

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Zack:

I am reading the comments of latino voters with great interest. It seems the media may have missed the mark! The Cuban vote in Florida is a bit hard for me to understand please help me understand ...do the Cubans not like the idea of normalizing relations with Cuba? Is their party choice due to some historical event?

Oh, congrats on citizenship Carl29...it sounds like we are very lucky to have you here.

Zack

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carl29:

Thank You, Thank You Zack. About the Cuban vote? Chezz.... Where do I begin? Well, according to these old cubans, Kennedy betrayed them. Do you remember Bay of Pigs Invasion? Cubans complained Kennedy didn't support them with air power during the invasion, and as a consequence they failed and a lot of them were captured by the cuban government. However, this was in 1961, I think. So, you wouldn't think they have lived hating all democrats ever since, but YES THEY DO. Since then, all democrats are communists, friends of communists, friends of Fidel Castro, and therefore, no democrat can be good.

Luckily, this is very strong among old cubans, younger cubans don't think this way. However, these older cubans vote in great numbers. These people have a very high turnout, and this is exactly what make them politicaly powerful.

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Zack:

carl29,thank you for the info. Now, I get it. They were understandably upset...as you point out it has been a few years! One more question in the same vein,in terms of Cuba policy who do you think Cubans and Latino people prefer(just on merits without the The Bay of Pigs influence)? I guess what I mean more directly is; If you took a poll of Cubans and then of Latinos asking: should the sanctions on Cuba be relaxed or removed? What do you think the results would look like? Thank you! the info you gave is very interesting and helps me and I hope others alot! Zack

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