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POLL: Mason-Dixon Florida (8/25-26)


Mason-Dixon
8/25-26/08; 625 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida
McCain 45, Obama 44

 

Comments
Cephme:

Doesn't make a big difference, but you have this typed in backwards. It is Obama 45 McCain 44. Either way it is a statistically insignificant lead, so according to this poll FL is a dead heat.

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Sergei Groinka:

Remember that the poll was done during the DNC. Else McCain would have been up by atleast 3-4 pts.

McCain/Romney 2008

Romney/Huckabee 2012

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thoughtful:

A surprise poll from a pollster normally favorable to the Repubs. Obama will be + 5+% in the next poll we see from Florida!

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jradMIT:

I don't know about how reliable Mason-Dixon is, this is the same pollster that showed McCain had more strength in Nevada than Arizona, which I think is pretty unlikely.

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Mike_in_CA:

to all the Republicans who so feverishly post on this site:

On a scale of 0-10, how upset will you be if Lieberman is picked for VP? (10 being the worst).

As a Dem, I say 0 :) Can't wait!

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sjt22:

@ Sergei

Your statement makes little sense. The poll was conducted 8/25 to 8/26. Only some of the interviews could have been conducted during the DNC Monday night, and given that this is Florida and interviews are mostly wrapped up prior to the end of the Monday DNC activities I doubt there was a huge number. On top of that, convention bounces are rarely seen so early in the convention.

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freedomreigns:

Mason-Dixon polling seems to fluxuate regularly. They have some polls that show Obama up by too much and some that have McCain up by too much. NV and NM as examples.

Frankly, I think this is probably within the margin of error. Most likely McCain up by 1-3 in FL but I still consider it a toss-up.

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freedomreigns:

Oh yea, and by the way Eric, you have this backwards. This Mason-Disxon poll has Obama at 45 and McCain at 44.

See my above comment for thoughts on this.

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bmcfar01:

The real news from this poll is that Romney would be McCain best choice for VP. It would give McCain an advantage in Florida, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

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axt113:

@bmcfar01:

And would give the dems a ton of ammunition, all the bad things they said to each other, the fact that Romney is even more out of touch then McCain and even more elitist

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Dave:

Mccain 44. Obama 45... still waiting for you to fix that... :-P

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Stillow:

@axt113

The primary comments Romney and McCain exchanged are washed out by the Obama / Biden....comments in primaries never translate to a winning strategy.

@mike
0. If McCain picked Lieberman it would fracture the GOP and the conservative wing would splinter off I think.

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KipTin:

Please... regarding "mistakes" in Pollster postings... use the "email us" to report such. One comment is enough.
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Well, Rasmussen shows the beginning of a convention "bounce" for Obama (their words):
Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Obama 47%/McCain 47%.
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McCain will be announcing his VP pick tomorrow and will be doing a 3-state tour together over the long weekend. The GOP Convention starts next Tuesday. Not much time for Obama to enjoy his bounce.
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My favorite recent quote (from Peggy Noonan's column): Obama campaign manager David Plouffe suggested the power of the stadium event is in this: it's meant to be a metaphor for the openness and inclusiveness that has marked the Obama campaign. Open stadium, 60,000 people – "we're opening this up to average Americans." METAPHOR??? How funny is that? Sounds like New Age speak. Sure that will work to get all those blue collar white voters to come over to Obama. NOT. Why doesn't Obama also promise arugula on every family's salad plate while he is at it. (In reference to Hoover's "chicken in every pot.")
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Denver weather report: Obama may have lucked out. No thunderstorms predicted until noonish Friday. As for today...."The Denver forecast for today calls for more of the same mild and dry weather with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s."


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KipTin:

Lieberman? He could not help Al Gore win and was a terrible debater. He has already been tested and failed. No, McCain will be choosing someone else. Friends do not let their best friends make the same mistakes. Lieberman would be better mostly out of the spotlight as one of McCain's closest advisors in the WH.

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zegota:

This is at least the third time this has happened in a poll: You've flipped the statistics for Obama and McCain. It doesn't make a huge difference, but when it's always in McCain's favor, and it happens multiple times, it could potentially affect the trendlines.

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faithhopelove:

Mason-Dixon, a non-partisan pollster, has Obama 45%, McCain 44%, a statistical dead heat (625 likely voters). It was in the field Monday and Tuesday (more recently than the SV poll), meaning respondents knew about the Biden pick, but also meaning that many if not all of them had not yet heard the big speeches. Hillary remains popular in FL, and her words may swing more voters there to Obama.

As with the earlier SV poll, Crist is not the pick of the majority of FL voters to be McCain's running mate. Romney is a more popular choice there. The poll shows that Lieberman would hurt McCain as a running mate.

Not surprisingly, McCain runs stronger in north FL and Obama runs stronger in south FL. Both McCain and Obama still have room for growth with their base. McCain probably cannot afford to continue ignoring this state, though. Undecideds (11%) may feel neglected and break heavily for Obama.

The crosstabs show that the sample was 11% African-American--a point less than the FL African-American turnout in 2004. The AP reports over 80,000 new black Democrats have registered to vote in FL since the start of this calendar year. Also, it is believed that up to 600,000 African-Americans in FL did not vote in 2004. African-American turnout in FL will be higher than the 12% of 2004.

The good news for McCain is that this poll's sample appears to have too many Democrats in it--44%, with only 40% Republicans. In 2004, it was 37% Dem, 41% GOP. Since that time, Dem registration has out-paced GOP registration by a wide margin; but it's doubtful that Dems now have a 4-point edge.

This poll makes 6 non-partisan polls in a row that have the race in FL at 4 points or less.

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faithhopelove:

Here are two related links, the first regarding 2004 results and the second regarding FL registration trends:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbvoters0712sbjul12,0,7473721.story

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zotz:

Weather Report
Attention: Evangelicals!

Sunny skies today in Denver
High temp. upper 70s

Hurricane Gustav will be tearing apart the Gulf Coast early next week just in time for the Reps to bluster about their great leadership over the past 8 years. Hmmmmm...

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faithhopelove:

There is a relevant SUSA poll here:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac8793ef-2899-49d0-a960-a1be2ff279b6

This poll shows McCain and Obama tied in a heavily Cuban district of FL (Cubans tend to vote Republican). FL Latinos went for Bush by 12 points in 2004. If this group breaks evenly for McCain and Obama, McCain will have difficulty holding FL.

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player:

A Romney pick probably wouldn't make much difference except the fact that Romney is the real deal in business; and most people are comfortable with that. I watched him in the debates. He was like an outsider at first but once he got involved, you could see his intellect move. He got stronger by the minute. I don't know how the religious factions would accept his being a Mormon but they have to think of the consequences. The polls in most places show that he is probably acceptable. However, I still think that it might be Crist.

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Stillow:

@zotz

I know the libs are salivating at the mouth and hoping it hits New Orelans.
Unlike last time LA now has a competent governor in Jindal. He will make sure that loon mayor of New Orleans does his job. Jindal will make sure if it hits that everything is done properly. LA wisely booted out the wacky lefty governor they had before.

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Tybo:

Stillow... and Jindal will have help. lot's of help.

Bush already has the national guard on standby, and has authorized Amtrak to move hundreds of cars to N.O.

neither of which he did before.

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brambster:

@zotz and Stillow

You know, good whether when radical evangelicals pray for rain is funny. Hurricanes are not.

What caring pray for is that nothing bad happens, but if it should, that the response is prudent and effective. It is too late however to be better prepared, and that's a shame.

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faithhopelove:

Some context for the SUSA poll of a largely Cuban FL district that I mentioned above: this district has about 15,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. See:
http://www.flapolitics.com/

Three FL representatives spoke at the Dem convention last night. Biden will visit FL next week.

Regarding McCain's VP pick, it appears that the only candidate who might help him in FL is Romney.

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thoughtful:

Romney theoretically helps the GOP ticket in: Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada. In this poll he is McCain's best partner so helps in Florida.

Romney harms the ticket most notably in Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia. He may harm or at best be neutral in Colorado.

As McCain is 72 the VP slot is probably more important than it would normally be.

I am still of the opinion that McCain is unelectable. We should start seeing more of a bounce tomorrow and at the weekend in the trackers.

The interest will be on any loss from the McCain column directly to Obama - I expect that to happen with Womenwho discover that McCain is against women's right to equal pay and women who discover McCain offers no-choice in any circumstances; lastly any Clinton Democrats coming home after teasing the pollsters. Again theoretically game changing.

Lots of singles from the undecided column up for grabs.

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bonncaruso:

I think you have the numbers backwards. According to the article, it is

Obama 45
McCain 44

Go check it out again.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

Most of what you said is all wrong....but puttign that aside.

What is with the show tonight? The big greek temple looking thing? This guy is as fake as his freinds.

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Florida Voter:

Hurricane Gustav heading to the Gulf Coast just in time for the GOP convention. How appropo is that. Someone upstairs is sending a message. It will remind Americans how incompetent the Repubs are in dealing with a crisis. But since it is an election year, the response will be overwhelming and the money will flow. When Florida got hit with 3 in the Fall of 2004, we were swimming in cash from the feds. People that weren't even part of the storms destruction got money. I have always said that hurricanes should only come once every 4 years. We get better assistance! :)

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Stillow:

@Florida Voter:

Uhhh, check your facts. LA was run by lefties on the state level...and New Orleans was run by lefties at the local level. During Katrina it was the left who failed, while FEMA also failed to provider management of the situation. You lefties are just amazing.....you ignore the lefts failure and focus on Bush.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

When is pollster going to correct the numbers? It should be:

Obama 45%
McCain 44%

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thoughtful:

Stillow

I think I told you weeks ago that Romney was the GOP pick, and boy there has been panic in the last couple of days! He must be your guy to help in Nevada. But McCain doesn't want him so who knows?

Last night was probably the most emotionally charged Convention night in modern history. It was immense. I have never seen so many people cry with joy; blacks, whites, native Americans. The Roll call worked a treat, after the surprse from the Governor of Montana the previous night (Montana is hugely in play!)and Hill's speech, Bill Clinton emphatically delivered last night for Obama, Kerry was good, Biden Junior then impressively introduced his dad who I can only imagine does appeal to the blue collars.

I can't see how The Smile High gig tonight is going to surpass last night. I have a good idea of the future focus, with Obama there is a huge expectancy so let's see if he delivers. He's playing to and for the Dem audience and Indies. The most important issue for him is to express his wisdom, intelligence, leadership and ability to serve and get the job done delivering to all the people rather than the few.

The actual set is a non-sequitter. Mile High is all part of setting up and committing/recruiting people/volunteers to the ground game. Obama wins on the 18-29; AA and Women's turn out - its just a question of how big.

The Democratic Party is very much now united with the election focus and mentality to win.

Or will the Liberals be disppointed yet again, I don't think so this time.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

I agree Bill's speech was great. It was full of lies and half truths, but it is exactly what the base wanted to hear. He delivers a speech very well. Obama comes off as preaching and lecturing soemtimes, but Bill can connect with his supporters. Only Reagan is up there with Bill's ability to connect. Clinton's claim to economic fame, its all bogus, but he did what he needed to do.....like I said, the left has momentum right now.

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Dave:

so could you tell me what were bill clinton's half truths and lies? just curious to hear this one.

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KipTin:

Again... people... quit complaining about the mispost of poll numbers and click that little link below that says "email us." Take some initiative.

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Stillow:

@Dave

He claimes the economy was great under his administration. What he oesn't tell you is that the percentage of people in poverty under Bush is lower than it was unde Clinton. The average unemployment rate under Bush is lower than it was under Clinton. Clinton hails his tax policy, but it was GOP tax cuts passed in his second term along with things like welfare reform that clinton fought tooth and nail. He won't tell you that in the first quarter of 2001 when he left offic that january the GDP grew at a negative rate leaving Bush with the start of a recession. he ignores that the tech bubble went bust under his watch costing millions of people are a large chunk of there retirement savings. He won't tell you that companies like Enron and Worldcom who engaged in the worst type of financial fraud all took place in the 90's under his watch and finally went bust in 2001. The planning for 9/11 was done i nthe 90's and Clinto nrefused to go after Osama....i goes on and on. The left ignores the facts....but like I said, he did what he needed to do, feed the kool aid to his base....and they drank it up.

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zotz:

Stillow-
I have told you that I want to spend tax money on levees, not the war in Iraq. New Orleans is a major port. Most of our grain exports go through it. It angers me that you would imply that I would want harm to come to my country for any reason. My dedication to the Dem cause is due to my patriotism which is second to no one, including John McCain.

I just thought it was ironic that some right wing evangelicals that thought God was on their side perhaps might have to reevaluate their beliefs.

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Stillow:

@zotz

You're right. I shoudl have put "some" dems. Its true, go check out some of the left wing blogs, they hoping it slams New Orleans so the left can use it as Katrina II...I did not mean to imply you personally....

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Dave:

wow all day long and you still haven't corrected the numbers... what's going on?

Obama 45
Mccain 44

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pbrower2a:

One speech does not decide an election -- even this one. That said, the Democratic national Convention has clearly enunciated what the Democratic Party stands for and has demonstrated that even if Obama were as hollow as the GOP tries to depict him, the Democrats have enough talent and valid ideas to ensure that they can solve most of the distress that the Rove/Bush/Cheney clique inflicted on most of us. Obama's closing speech was the sockdolager that combined the concerns of millions of Americans whose interests have been treated as delusional or irrelevant for nearly eight dreary years.

The Democrats ably expressed that the national interest is the sum of individual interests of the common man and even addressed concerns that the Republicans usually own -- patriotism and economic growth through rational incentives.

Senator McCain is now caught in a difficult situation: he must simultaneously show loyalty to the core constituencies of the GOP during the Rove/Bush/Cheney era while showing himself independent of them. That means that his "Straight Talk Express" must become the "Doubletalk Express". Such an effort sets himself up for logical contradictions that Obama or Biden can strike quickly. It will not be enough to try to create mere doubt, as worked before 2006, among Democrats.

It's hard to see what lineup of political luminaries the GOP can bring to effective display. About all that the GOP can rip the Democrats for is the possibility of tax increases. Special interests are best left behind the scene. The current President sounds like someone soon to go out to pasture. The current Vice-President is no speaker. The current President's wife is tolerable. So if you match Cheney, George Bush, and Laura Bush to Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Hillary Clinton -- you lose. John McCain certainly isn't Barack Obama. What equivalent of Ted Kennedy does the GOP have?

It is remarkable that the 2008 race for the Presidency has been so close for so long. That may not last.


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Florida Voter:

It's nice to see my home state in play. And with over 200 people here working for Obama (versus 50 for McCain) it is making a difference. We shall see what kind of convention the Repubs have, etc.. An active hurricane season is going to continually remind us Floridians on the skyrocketing cost of insurance and how the local Repubs in control are failing in keeping insurance costs under control and their failure to act on a national catastrophic fund for all national natural disasters, (Tornado's in the heartland, Fires in the west, Earthquakes in the west, blizzards up north, etc.). Let's hope no one is injured this weekend when Gustav makes landfall.

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