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POLL: Mason-Dixon North Carolina (4/28-29)


Mason-Dixon/WRAL

North Carolina
n=400 LV, 4/28-29
Obama 49, Clinton 42

 

Comments
Tybo:

Another poll showing a substantial gain for Sen. Clinton in NC.

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Shadar:

I wouldn't call it a substantial gain, it's merely a tightening of numbers.

As the undecided count drops she gains a bit as we've seen with most polling in this primary season. It also seems most states that Obama wins he wins a lot bigger than the polling would predict and in states he loses he loses a little worse than expected.

I am starting to believe all this campaigning hasn't changed anything. I think most of the results would have been the same 3 months ago and would still be the same 3 months from now. 52% like Obama and 48% like Hillary, the only difference is the enthusiasm level which is higher for Obama (thus his caucus wins). The same groups of people vote for the same candidates, younger and more educated people go Obama and the older voters and less educated go to hillary. Each state has a different balance of these people. We aren't seeing up and down trends as the campaign goes on, at least not big ones, we're just seeing the different states voting based on their population makeup.

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Tybo:

I consider it a substanial gain give Obama was to carry the state by 15% or more. Almost 40% of the voters will be AA.

I debate a few things. In several states CLinton won the college vote, and she has consistantly done better with the post BS educated than those with just a BS degree.
It is completely true she carries the HS grads.


In the income level, It's Obama who carries the 15K and less group and the over 200K group, but the 99-149K has often gone for Clinton, while the under 50K seems to carry for her too.

In states with a large AA population I would have liked to have seen the breakdown by income and education.

I wish the media would stop the simplistic breakdowns they've been using, and break each state down.

I take my numbers from three source CNN,NYTimes and C-Span polling.

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jac13:

Shadar,

Very astute observations in your 2nd paragraph. I agree 100%.

(BTW, I love this site. I know little or nothing about opinion research, and I never fail to learn something from the posts I read here. Also, the site is a welcome breath of fresh air compared to the politics sites where the posts are often overheated, nasty and insulting. Thanks!)

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jac13:

Shadar,

Make that the THIRD parsgraph. Sorry.

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jac13:

Shadar,

Make that the THIRD paragraph. Sorry.

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ProfessorVP:

Prediction: John Edwards will endorse Obama the day before the North Carolina primary, to cause a big stir and take the edge of the especially dirty ad Hillary runs the day before... or doing her crying routine. Prediction: because of tightening of ID rules in Indiana, which will affect students and blacks most, Obama will lose Indiana by about 4 points. He will win NC by over 10 points.

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