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POLL: Monmouth New Jersey (4/24-28)


Monmouth University/Gannett

New Jersey
n=720 RV, 4/24-28
Obama 56, McCain 32... Clinton 52, McCain 38

 

Comments
Knute:

So much for the theory that winning the primary gives a candidate an automatic advantage in the general.

It seems increasingly obvious that in states that are historically heavily favored by one party, the primary is a beauty pageant - and issues of electability can only be argued in the old and new battleground states.

We also may be seeing some tempering of enthusiasm for HRC post super tuesday. One also wonders how the primary would play out today in NJ, CA, and NY if the voters had known then what they know now about the various candidates.

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BLeigh82:

Buyer's remorse anyone?

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Shadar:

I find it very interesting that in many of the large states polls are showing this exact thing. Hillary won in the primary, Obama leads in the general.

The whole "have to win a state in the primary to win it in the general" argument is just plain untrue. I'm sorry guys, but it holds no water whatsoever. There are countless examples of it not working but yet it still gets repeated and I can't understand for the life of me why. Repeating an argument you know is factually untrue makes no sense to me and yet people continue to do it. I refuse to believe there is anyone here who actually believes it is true.

As CA and NJ prove, a candidate can lose the primary and still fare better in the general in that state because of appeal to independents/other party voters. Obama's camp has been trying to make the claim for a long time that they can get cross-over voters, even some republicans, and it sure seems a lot of these polls back that up.

Hillary's camp should argue that Penn/Ohio/FL do not look good for Obama in the fall based on current polling. They should drop the whole "Hillary won the big states and Obama lost them, thus the same will occur in the general" argument.

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Alan:

This one's pretty surprising, given that every other Obama-McCain poll in New Jersey over the past few months has shown the race to be relatively close (his largest lead in any of those polls was 7 points, and a few showed the race to be a statistical tie). If it's real, that's great, but I'd like to see somebody else confirm this result.

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