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POLL: MSNBC/McClatchy IA, NH, SC Primaries


Three new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason Dixon statewide surveys of likely caucus-goers/primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (conducted 12/3 through 12/6) finds:

  • Among 400 Republicans in Iowa, former Gov. Mike Huckabee leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (32% to 20%) in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 11%, Sen. John McCain at 7%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 5%. Among 400 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton edges out Sen. Barack Obama (27% to 25%); former Sen. John Edwards trails at 21%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 9%, Sen. Joe Biden at 5%.
  • Among 400 Republicans in New Hampshire, Romney leads Giuliani (25% to 17%) in a statewide primary; McCain trails at 16%, Huckabee at 11%, Thompson at 6%, Rep. Ron Paul at 5%. Among 400 Democrats, Clinton narrowly leads Obama (30% to 27%); Edwards trails at 10%, Richardson at 7%.
  • Among 400 Republicans in South Carolina, Huckabee edges out Giuliani (20% to 17%); Romney trails at 15%, Thompson at 14%, McCain at 10%. Among 400 Democrats, Clinton narrowly leads Obama (28% to 25%); Edwards trails at 18%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

Full results now available here (IA Dems, Reps; NH Dems, Reps; SC Dems, Reps; NV Dems/Reps).

 

Comments
Paul:

Appears as if Republicans in Iowa finally figured out they are more like Huckabee than Romney or Giuliani. Problem for Huckabee is he has much less of a match with people in NH. I see no hope for Thompson as he is not competing well in IA or NH and any thunder he may have had in SC has been taken by Huckabee. McCain's only hope seems to be in New Hampshire. If Huckabee takes momentum from Romney in IA, and Romney then loses some support In NH, and Giuliani loses support in NH after a terrible showing in IA, McCain could (outside shot) win NH.

Obama is competing essentially even with Clinton now and the Democratic race certainly looks to be down to the two candidates, unless Edwards can pull an upset in Iowa.

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spence:

Less then a month to Iowa and no clear frontrunner on either side. This is fun!

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Dan:

There is a new New York poll out showing Mike Huckabee in 2nd place at 13%. http://www.datamar.net/pdf/nyrepublicanPPdec07.pdf

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NBC ignoring own results

It is a lesson in the media obsession with staying on their own message, that the NBC stations are ignoring their polls. Usually, no matter whatever else, a network will promote its' own polls as news because of branding reasons.

But for the Democratic race the NBC networks are taking a pass because the results don't fit the template at the moment.

You see, Barack Obama is supposed to be leading in Iowa and pulling away to a large lead, and catching up nationwide. But their Mason-Dixon polls show Hillary hanging on to a lead, with all the races close in all 4 early states. You might think that could spun as Barack still on the move but that was the message 2 weeks ago.

Since a few polls have shown Barack in the lead, him behind by even a point shatters the story line. Last week the DMR poll showed Obama up by 3 points. It might as well have been 15.

So its' a little soon to show Hillary up 2 points in Iowa and dismiss it.

Maybe that can be done by this afternoon on the evening shows, I'll be watching.

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I challenge anyone to find 1 positive HRC story

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With all of the "diverse" voices on the web. I challenge anyone to find 1 positive HRC story written by someone not paid or who has endorsed her.

She is in the 7th week of withering press coverage, and still has the lead.

It is unbelievable. She is proving her mettle. Does anyone think any other candidate could withstand such long negative press from the right, middle, and the left?


Please just 1 story.


It's another reason why she's the next POTUS

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Is there any reason why there is so much more polling in all three other early states than there is in Nevada? This poll is just one example - on the trackers, it's clear that NV has far fewer data points than even SC, which is later, and a larger state (in terms of population). Do pollsters believe that Nevada is an especially hard state to poll, whether because of the caucus, or the large number of temporary residents, or for some other reason? Or do they think that South Carolina somehow gives more important insights than Nevada?

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