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POLL: MSNBC/McClatchy Iowa Caucus


A new McClatchy/MSNBC/Mason-Dixon statewide survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/26 through 12/28) finds:

  • Among 400 likely Democratic caucus goers, former Sen. John Edwards runs at 24%, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 23%, Sen. Barack Obama at 22% in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 12%, Sen. Joe Biden at 8%.
  • Among 400 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mitt Romney runs at 27%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 23% in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 14%, Sen. John McCain at 13%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Rep. Ron Paul both at 5%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is five percent for both subgroups.

 

Comments
Andrew:

Barack Obama's campaign chief recently said that John Edwards is too angry because he won't compromise with medical insurance companies.

"The Edwards campaign is 'Storm the Bastille,' " said Axelrod in a colorful description of the former senator's fierce attacks on drug companies, oil companies and all others who would stand in the way of reform. This is appealing to the many Democrats who are in a fighting mood.

I don't know about other likely voters, but these comments turn me off and make me less likely to vote for Obama.
We need a fighter, not someone flirting and trying to compromise with Republicans.

Vote for Edwards or Kucinich.

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Paul:

Based on the all the polls I have seen this far going into the week of the Iowa primary, I see four open questions: (1) Clinton, Obama, Edwards will account for about 80% on the first round of preferences --- will others stick on first round or will they switch to one of the big three; (2) what will effect of forced switch at below 15% be for Democrats?; (3) top six Republicans (which includes Paul) accounts for about 85% of those polled --- how will the the other 15% fall out? and (4) per my other recent post, will Huckabee's recent comments about Pakistan hurt him?

Having said all of this, with 80% accounted for Democrats, I have Clinton 2 over Obama and 5 over Edwards. For Republicans, with 85% accounted for, I have Huckabee 4 over Romney, 19 over McCain, 20 over Thompson, 21 over Giuliani and 24 over Paul.

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Anonymous:

This Mason/Dixon poll appears to be an outlier. It has undecideds much higher, 12% which is way high and shows Bill Richardson with twice the support he has in any other poll (12 percent in this poll to 5 percent in virtually every recent poll).

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