December 30, 2007
POLL: MSNBC/McClatchy Iowa Caucus
A new McClatchy/MSNBC/Mason-Dixon statewide survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 12/26 through 12/28) finds:
- Among 400 likely Democratic caucus goers, former Sen. John Edwards runs at 24%, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 23%, Sen. Barack Obama at 22% in a statewide caucus; Gov. Bill Richardson trails at 12%, Sen. Joe Biden at 8%.
- Among 400 likely Republican caucus goers, former Gov. Mitt Romney runs at 27%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 23% in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 14%, Sen. John McCain at 13%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Rep. Ron Paul both at 5%.
- All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is five percent for both subgroups.
By Eric Dienstfrey on December 30, 2007 9:40 AM | Permalink
Comments
Based on the all the polls I have seen this far going into the week of the Iowa primary, I see four open questions: (1) Clinton, Obama, Edwards will account for about 80% on the first round of preferences --- will others stick on first round or will they switch to one of the big three; (2) what will effect of forced switch at below 15% be for Democrats?; (3) top six Republicans (which includes Paul) accounts for about 85% of those polled --- how will the the other 15% fall out? and (4) per my other recent post, will Huckabee's recent comments about Pakistan hurt him?
Having said all of this, with 80% accounted for Democrats, I have Clinton 2 over Obama and 5 over Edwards. For Republicans, with 85% accounted for, I have Huckabee 4 over Romney, 19 over McCain, 20 over Thompson, 21 over Giuliani and 24 over Paul.
This Mason/Dixon poll appears to be an outlier. It has undecideds much higher, 12% which is way high and shows Bill Richardson with twice the support he has in any other poll (12 percent in this poll to 5 percent in virtually every recent poll).
Barack Obama's campaign chief recently said that John Edwards is too angry because he won't compromise with medical insurance companies.
I don't know about other likely voters, but these comments turn me off and make me less likely to vote for Obama.
We need a fighter, not someone flirting and trying to compromise with Republicans.
Vote for Edwards or Kucinich.
Posted on December 30, 2007 1:41 PM