A new McClathy/MSNBC/Mason-Dixon South Carolina survey (results PDF, conducted 1/22 through 1/23) finds:
hmmm, maybe not a double digit obama win as we may be led to believe.
Posted on January 24, 2008 9:09 PM
Maybe not an Obama win at all. If Nevada is any indication, Edwards' 19% won't hold up because when voters actually go to the polls they won't think he can realistically win. Lets say Edwards drops from 19% to 12%, and Hillary gets 5% of that (a lot of Edwards support in SC is white male not flaming liberal) That would put it at Obama 40% Hillary 35% and Edwards 12%.
Now you have 13% undecided, a high number this late in the game. Actual voters skew older and skew female, both demographics favoring Hillary. Hillary scores two to one on the undecided vote and Obama drops a point somewhere and she wins. It is not out of the question.
Posted on January 24, 2008 9:19 PM
A repeat of NH in SC for Clinton?
Posted on January 24, 2008 10:18 PM
"Maybe not an Obama win at all" ????
I'll go ahead and save you the suspense -- Obama will win. The question is by how much.
Posted on January 24, 2008 10:25 PM
The poll shows the African-American vote as 59-25 Obama-Clinton, which is lower for Obama than other surveys which say ~70%.
Among whites: Edwards 40%, Clinton 35%, Obama 10%.
If this poll is backed up by others (excluding the Clemson U survey!), then both Clinton and Obama have reason to be worried, no?
Though for Obama, other states may not be as racially divided as SC., and for Clinton, Edwards may not get as much support elsewhere.
Posted on January 24, 2008 11:30 PM
Interesting she is closing the gap. as to the question as to whether she can win I would still say that it is still pretty safe to assume and obama win, but lets not forget NH. I do thing that it is interesting that the gap has closed and not widened. Maybe this will be a close race, and if it is will it hurt Obama. I think that a lose here would seriously hurt obama especially with all the build up by the media saying that it is essentially preordained. If Hillary were to by all the luck in the world win here i think that it may critically damage obamas campaign
Posted on January 24, 2008 11:33 PM
Hillary will win hands down. Just like in other states, most undecided voters will go for Hillary in the last minute. Tomorrow's poll will be the most critical. If Obama cannot get the undecided voters to maintain at least a 15 point lead. He can forget about this race.
Posted on January 24, 2008 11:46 PM
Joshua, I disagree with your assertion that Clinton is "closing the gap". The last Mason Dixon poll had Obama up by 9%. Now the lead is 8%, which due to margin of error is insignificant.
You may have been referring to Obama's lead in this poll compared to other polls conducted by different pollsters, but this would be unfair, due to differences in methodology.
Posted on January 24, 2008 11:55 PM
Surbey USA pOLL JAN 22-23
rcp Avg 12.2 Obama
Posted on January 25, 2008 12:18 AM
I was referring to the polls in general that i have seen. I am not an expert on polling, but i do know that in general I have seen him with double digit lead. however you do have a good point in the methodology so I will simply state from what i have seen in the polls hillary is getting closer.
Posted on January 25, 2008 12:35 AM
Last night according to Zogby Obama's lead had shrunk to 5%.
I have been predicting since the market collapse on Monday that Clinton will win SC.
It will absolutely be a combination of NH and NEV. Obama's numbers are reported solidly, but Clinton's are underreported and Edwards support will collapse at the ballot box.
She was within striking distance last night, with two more days to go. I think she is going to take SC.
Posted on January 25, 2008 10:26 AM
Take a good look at all the polls.
Most have 4-5% margins of error.
Most have 10-15% undecideds.
Most have 10-30% may change minds.
In IA Clinton and Obama were only 3% apart before 2nd choice selections(a poor way to elect people btw)
In NH they were only 2% apart
And in both cases late deciders or changers were nearly 30%
What does all this mean? I think it means it is up in the air and the last 24 hours counts more than ever before.
Posted on January 25, 2008 12:44 PM
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