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POLL: MSNBC-McClatchy/ Mason-Dixon Primaries


MSNBC-McClatchy/Mason-Dixon (story)

Missouri
Clinton 47, Obama 41... McCain 37, Huckabee 27, Romney 24

Georgia
Obama 47, Clinton 41... McCain 33, Romney 27

California
Clinton 45, Obama 36... McCain 40, Romney 31

New Jersey
Clinton 46, Obama 39... McCain 46, Romney 31

Arizona
Clinton 43, Obama 41

 

Comments
Pinky:

You have misspelled the arizona results. It's 43 - 41 according to the press release.

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John SFL:

Oh McClatchy! Why can't your numbers match Zogby? I'm swearing off polls until Wednesday.

As an Obama man the races I'm most interested in at this point are New Jersey, Missouri, and California. Those would be nice pickups. I know everyone says Zogby sucks but I have my Obama-colored glasses on and I'm gonna let those numbers bolster me until the dust settles.

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RS:

@John SFL:

Remember, MSNBC-McClatchy had Obama's white support in SC at 10% and his black support at 59%, much below the actual results.
Reuters/Zogby was also much closer to the actual results (particularly for Senator Clinton) than MSNBC-McClatchy in SC.

:-)

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Phil:

It's tough to judge McClatchy, as they tend to stop polling a lot further before the election than Zogby does.

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Vanessa Barnes:

Zogby is assuming that the young people are coming out. Hillary will win Cali and I am an Obama supporter and objectively. THE Republicans will soundly defeat him so they are paying off Zogby and Rasmussen to say it's close when if fact, it is not. I just want him b/c as black woman, it would be nice. He's the black candidate.

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Phil:

The level of conspiracy necessary to assume that Zogby, a vocal Democrat, is being paid off by the Republicans seems far greater than the situation warrants.

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RS:

The Republicans will soundly defeat [Senator Obama]...

That could also be said for Senator Clinton. But recent polls from a variety of sources show both Clinton and Obama tying McCain and defeating Romney. Of course, what happens in November is hard to predict just yet.

The Field Poll also shows a tied Democratic race (but a large number of undecideds.) So it's not just Zogby - but I am sure people could conjure up visions of a vast right-wing conspiracy ;-)

By the way, referring to my earlier post - McClatchy seems to have a better (as in consistent with other polls) handle on the ethnic vote split. My bad for not checking the new MSNBC-McClatchy results.

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Andrew:

Stop blaming McClatchy. It's Mason-Dixon who does the polling.
McClatchy is just the newspaper that along with MSNBC paid Mason-Dixon to prepare a poll for them.

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Ruben:

I'm surprise at the number of undecideds in California. Are these the Edwards supporters? A note on Zogby, the sample includes 1/31 which was the night of the debates, I think she won that debate so I wonder if she polled better on 2/1 and 2/2.

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Phil:

I'd be a little surprised if the debate gave a big bump. It was, in almost all pundits' eyes, close, and I don't think debates give that substantial a bump in most cases.

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Muhoza:

As someone observing the US presidential election, i find it interesting on the democratic side of it, but also on the country as a whole. With all the greatness boasted by the US intellectually, economically and scientifically, they can see only two families to provide presidents! If experience is gained that way, then Jeb Bush should be preparing himself after Clinton, then it will be, who is that daughter of Clinton?!!, oh, cheasea! It is very, very funny to watch as events fold out!!!

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Munda:

I can see Clinton winning the democratic nomination, there is no question about that. What makes one think deeply is that Americans are now becoming ancient Egypt! Dynasties are folding out, and the "cleaning up" for each other-language is going to blind us, especially some old folks.
Anyone who has lived in the white house as son, wife or daughter can claim to have experience. That was also the advantage George W.Bush held over Kerry, but where has he led our nation? I agree with Obama, what is important is not to be ready on day one, but to be right on day one!

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