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POLL: National Daily Tracking Update for 4/25


The Gallup Daily

National
Obama 48, Clinton 47
McCain 46, Obama 45... Clinton 47, McCain 45

Also:
"45% Call Economic Conditions 'Poor'"
Video: "Many Americans Seek More Economic Equality"

Rasmussen Reports

National
Obama 49, Clinton 42
McCain 45, Obama 45... McCain 47, Clinton 45
Article

Also:
Pennsylvania: Clinton 47%, McCain 42%...McCain 44%, Obama 43%

 

Comments
ca-indp:

Let's see how Obama Crack pots try to dismiss this. LOL!!!

Obama 48, Clinton 47
McCain 46, Obama 45...
Clinton 47, McCain 45

In Nov, Obama is going join a long list of Dem LOSERS:
John Kerrey, Al Gore, Ted Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Dukasis and on and on ................

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ca-indp:

Let's see how Obama Crack pots try to dismiss this. LOL!!!

Obama 48, Clinton 47
McCain 46, Obama 45...
Clinton 47, McCain 45

In Nov, Obama is going join a long list of Dem LOSERS:
John Kerrey, Al Gore, Ted Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Dukasis and on and on ................

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axt113:

Its called statisical variation, yesterday McCain was tied with clinton, and two days ago McCain was ahead of clinton, and in Rasmussen Obama was ahead yesterday and tied today while clinton is behind.

Essentially both dems are statistically tied with McCain, its pretty much a 45% split either way, but that will change once the nomination ends and as dems rally behind Obama or Hillary (likely Obama), as the winner will get a bimp in the polls probably as much as 5-10%

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ca-indp:

No Obama is not going to get any bump that u are praying for.
Lot of Hillary votes will go to JM because of Obama Crack pots who have hardened each other's supporters so much. Polls show > 20%. He ain't going to win OH, PA or FL go figure!!
So he is going to be the next Dem LOSER.

CA Indp for Hillary and then JM.

LOL!!

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Mark Blumenthal:

ca-ind & americaf:

Just deleted your last two comments. Read the comment policy. Next one like this gets you banned. Clear?

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political_junki:

I am not an Obama fan (was for Edwards before dropped out) but anybody is better than lying deceitful shameless clinton. I am a registered democrat but if that wretched woman becomes the nominee I will vote republican first time in my life. McCain has at least a shred of dignity in him.

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debrazza:

Wow, the comments here are totally degenerating. It used to be insightful discussion of polls, not it is just wild candidate boosterism.

axt113 is correct, the Gallup and Rass are just fluctuating through statistical variation through the margin of error. It is sort of pointless to claim any of the three candidates are ahead in the general election head to head polls because it is a statistical tie.

The Gallup Daily Tracking poll is much more interesting to me. This is the second time now that Obama was up with about a 10 point lead above the MoE for about a week recently. The last time was right before the debate and this time coincides with the primary. I don't really fully understand these daily tracking polls. Movement from day-to-day within the statistical margin, but over the course of many days showing a trend that then reverses. It will be interesting to see if we see the same phenomenon again. Also, it will be interesting to see if Obama once again gains ground over the weekend. More evidence of the weekend/midweek Obama/Clinton phenomenon that Gallup says is not there?

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fafield:

With so much talk about electability, has someone taken the results of a nationwide state by state poll (with random MOE)and calculated the electoral college results probablity for Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain?

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cinnamonape:

Fafaeld- Survey USA did that about a month ago. They used computer-calls to survey a large number of likely voters in all 50 states to determine General Election results in each State. They then determined the Electoral College counts in those states and found that both Democrats beat McCain...Obama got more Electoral College votes than Clinton, and that he put more States "in play" (within 5%). Clinton won traditional Blue states, often by larger margins than OPbama would have...but he still easily won them. The differences were that Clinton won Arkansas and Tennessee, and put Florida into play.

Obama put several Midwest and Rocky Mountain States into the Democratic column, and put states like Virginia, the Carolinas, Texas, and even Georgia into play.

This survey was done just before and after McCain winning the nomination and after Super Tuseday...so things obviously may have changed. But it's the only stste-by-state survey done using the same methodology over the same time frame that individually got all States.

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