Articles and Analysis


POLL: National Daily Tracking Update for 4/26

The Gallup Daily

Obama 47, Clinton 47
McCain 45, Obama 45... Clinton 47, McCain 44

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 47, Clinton 43
McCain 47, Obama 45... McCain 47, Clinton 45



Crack Hussein Obama is going to LOSE in Nov and join the Dem LOSERS hall of Fame: Jimmy Carter, Dukasis, Al Gore, John Kerrey, Tom Daschle, Ted Kennedy and on and on.....

This is the best year for Dems to win and they are LOSING!!
Hillary is going to have last shrill LOL in Nov 08.



the comments by "ca-indp" are extremely unhelpful - this site is meant to keep people up to date with the latest polls but instead it is polluted with partisan comments... please stop this... and really "ca-indp" you don't come across as a Hillary supporter but rather the anonymous on-line presence of Karl Rove - very sad



The comments made by ca-indp do not add anything to this topic, they are just flame-bait.

Now, about this poll, it seems to me all these polls coming out now are fairly redundant. They are all showing one candidate or the other up by 5% points or less. It seems pretty obvious Indiana is a dead heat between the two of them. The more useful polling / analysis would be to figure out which way the undecided voters are going to vote come election day. We can safely assume both candidates are in the 45% range with 10% undecided, give or take.

In many recent states they have gone for Hillary, but in western and younger states they have gone for Obama. The question is, which of these trends will Indiana follow or will it split them down the center and go 50/50? A 50/50 tie or a 51/49, 49/51 outcome in Indy will likely take so long to be declared for either candidate that all the pundits will talk about that night will be NC. This will likely be a great news night for Obama as NC polls will close an hour earlier as well. The faster they call the state for him the more good press he gets. If he can run up a large double digit win in NC, 10+ points, he will have erased Hillary's gains in Penn and be getting wall to wall coverage all night long.

It seems to me Hillary's strategy should be to hit Obama hard in NC. She cannot allow him to have hours and hours of great press out of NC on election night while they wait for a near tie in Indiana. Of course she can't shift too much focus from Indiana either because a loss in Indy is the end of the road for her, even if she manages to get NC within 5-10 points. So it's a mixed bag, she can't let Obama have a big NC win but she absolutely has to win in Indy as well.

Thoughts on what she should do? I personally think she should throw everything out on the table and try to win in NC. Go 100% into NC and try for a knockout blow on Obama. If she wins in NC she may just break his super delegate stream and start winning some for herself. Indy is a toss up so winning it is not all that impressive, Hillary has to win one of Obama's strongholds. Obama merely has to hold on and winning a tossup is bonus points on top.



I meant to post the following here, but in the process of registering to be able to post I was taken to the next day's polls. Sorry for the "recycle."

I think that those who feel that pointing out Obama's weakening poll numbers is not "helpful" should go to a place where they would get what they wish to hear. This site provides info on whatever is out there and all indications are that Obama has lost his "shine".

The superdelegates must take this into account, otherwise there would be no rationale for the whole concept of superdels, if all they do is to ratify the status quo. Obama would not reach the number of delegates needed to win the nomination without the superdels, which means that their existence is not predicated upon endorsing whoever is "ahead" in pledged delegates. Their "raison d'etre" makes sense only if they would help choose someone who has the best chance to lead the party to a victory. At this point, Obama is looking less and less like that someone...according to the data posted here, which is why his supporters are saying that it is not "helpful" to point that out.



"At this point, Obama is looking less and less like that someone...according to the data posted here, which is why his supporters are saying that it is not "helpful" to point that out"

We must be looking at different data. I am coming at this as a person who wants to see a democrat in the White House, any democrat. Biden was my favorite choice as he truly cut through all the crap and gave straight forward answers that showed he really knew what was going on, he didn't give the politically correct answers Hillary or Obama did. That said, I will vote for either, I just want the one that has the best chance to win in Nov as well as the one that will have the longest coat-tails.

I'd say Hillary's margin of error is smaller. She either wins by 1-3% or losers by 1-3%, it will be a traditional campaign where all dems vote dem and all repubs vote repub and the independent split is what decides the election. In a year like this when every single factor is in the Democrat's favor this gives her a good chance to be the president. Unfortunately she is very polarizing, you either love or hate Hillary. I say this as someone who loves the Clintons. A lot of people who might not otherwise vote will come out to vote against her and will likely vote party lines down the entire ballot (meaning down ticket republicans will get some extra votes).

Obama is more of a gamble. We don't know as much about him, but he is certainly firing up a lot of people. He could win by 10%+ or lose by a similar margin, we really don't know what will happen. What we do know is that the people who care the most about down-ticket races, the candidates themselves from red states and swing states, are overwhelmingly favoring Obama. I have to believe the candidates have a better idea of who will do well in their states than I do. Basically the main selling point I see is that he will not fire up the republican base who is very apathetic this election cycle. Many will likely stay at home if they have no reason to go out and vote. Obama may even be inspiring enough to get a few republican protest votes as signs of displeasure with their party over the past 8 years.

In the end I believe a democrat will be the president. I think Obama and Hillary will both win, they will just win in different ways. Hillary will win all the blue states and most of the swing states. Obama will win all the blue states, lose a few of the traditional swing states, but will win a few traditional red states.

It all comes down to which candidate will have the coat-tails to get more senators/house members/govs elected as well. I think we can all agree Hillary will light a fire in the republican party and really motivate their get-out-the-vote programs. Obama currently doesn't seem that he will have that same effect, perhaps by Nov Obama will not be so shiny... I just don't think he will be anywhere near as toxic in the republican party as Hillary is already. And really, having 53 dem senators is good (we will pick up at least 2) but having 60 dem senators is amazing (and 60 is a possibility, 57 is more likely).

Vote not only for the top of the ticket but also for down ticket races, they really do matter.


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