April 30, 2008
POLL: NBC/WSJ National (4/25-28)
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
(NBC story, results; WSJ story, results)
1,006 RV, 4/25-28
National
Obama 46, Clinton 43
Obama 46, McCain 43... Clinton 45, McCain 44
By Eric Dienstfrey on April 30, 2008 7:10 PM | Permalink
Comments
Typical Knute spin. He concludes that out of all the polls released today, this one is the most valid since "its the one the mainstream media pays attention to".
Look around. The media is paying attention to the Fox, CBS, and NBJ polls alike.
Knute also pretends to be shocked about the fact that the Democratic race has not changed much, ignoring that it is in the GE matchup that the Wright controversy is likely to hurt Obama, and it has indeed hurt him, according to this all polls except for this NBC one.
InsiderAdvantage has Clinton up by 2 in North Carolina. But guess what? In pretty much every southern state, InsiderAdvantage has been off by 13-20 points in Clinton's favor. Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Virginia - InsiderAdvantage's polls were hideously off. And if a Southern Pollster can't even call southern states right, they have no business calling themselves accurate.
One potent reason that I believe the InsiderAdvantage is wrong is that it has Obama taking about 51% of the black vote and Clinton getting about 20%. Either respondents are lieing to the pollster or just a spin. I know in the final analysis Obama will carry about 90%+ of black vote.
IA is famous for assuming African-American turnout will break 60/40 female-to-male, and insanely underestimating 18-29 year old voters.
After all this and BHO still has 3 points on HRC?
Not that this poll is any more authoritative than any other, but it's the one that MSNBC pushes and the rest of the mainstream media pays attention to.
How can the supers not be paying attention - what can Hill possibly do to move ahead?
Of course BHO has shown an uncanny ability to do for Hill what she cannot do for herself - except maybe now it's time for a Clinton gaffe, Bill going pink, Hill "misremembering" some heroic deed - or maybe just the voters exercising some common sense and rejecting the party line.
In any case, this is probably BHO's nadir - and the numbers coming out of NC and IN are intrinsically less important than how they are interpreted by the media.
Not saying this is a good thing - just that it is what it is.
Posted on April 30, 2008 9:29 PM