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POLL: Newsweek Iowa Caucus


A new Newsweek statewide survey (story, results) of 1,215 registered voters in Iowa (conducted 9/26 through 9/27) finds:

  • Among all registered Democrats (+/- 5% margin of sampling error), Sen. Hillary Clinton narrowly leads Sen. Barack Obama (31% to 25%) with former Sen. Edwards at 21% and Gov. Bill Richardson at 6%. Among likely Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 7% margin of sampling error), Obama edges out Clinton (28% to 24%); Edwards runs at 22%, Richardson at 10%, and Sen. Joe Biden at 5%.
  • Among all registered Republicans (+/- 6% margin of sampling error), former Gov. Mitt Romney runs at 25%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 16%, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 15%, Sen. John McCain at 7%, and former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6%. Among likely Republican caucus-goers (+/- 9% margin of sampling error), Romney narrowly leads Thompson (24% to16%) while Giuliani trails at 13%, Huckabee at 12%, McCain at 9%, and Rep. Ron Paul at 5%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

 

Comments
Anonymous:

That republican poll has a nine point margin of error?! That alone makes it worthless. Why don't they make more calls? If they can't get the m of e lower than that, whats the point?

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Paul:

Edwards polled 3rd among registered Democrats as well as likely caucus voters --- certainly bad news given he is unlikely to recover in NH. This really is his shot at establishing himself in the primary season.

On the Republican side, Romney continues to run strong which would set himself up nicely for NH. McCain continues to run way back, making his only shot an upset in NH.

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AJ:

I am not sure how accurate these numbers are. How were these numbers collected? Were the participants called during dinner time? What is the racial breakdown and ages of these voters?

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