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POLL: Newsweek National


Newsweek/PSRA
7/9-11/08 - 1,037 RV, 3%
(story, results)

National
Obama 44, McCain 41

 

Comments
carl29:

After the two last polls from Newsweek, this pollster will enjoy my "second-to-crap" list in addition to ARG.

Let me show why:

In the poll from June they had 26% Rep, 36% Dem., and 34% Ind. with 83% white.

In the poll from July they have 30% Rep, 4% MORE than June, 31% Dem., 5% LESS than June, and Ind. 34%, the same as June, with 86% white.

So, does anybody wonder why Obama's numbers went down 7% when there was a 9% swing in party ID from the last poll? According to this poll there is no party ID gap between democrats and republicans. Is that the reality?

Am I surprised that McCain's numbers went up 5% in this poll that has 4% more republicans and 3% more whites than the last poll?

I think that they acting pretty irresponsible by not telling people that they made these "adjustments" from the previous poll, and by so doing, let people wonder.

It obvious that the previous poll was "fishy" because they changed the composition this time around. Likewise, this poll looks "fishy" as well when it doesn't register any difference in party ID between Rep. and Dem.

If it is true that there is no party ID gap, other pollster, specially Rasmussen who shares this data, will show it soon. Let's see, but I think this Newsweek poll kind of look as a outlier just like the one before.

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Undecided:

Where did you get your July numbers? The following is taken directly from the Newsweek results:

Party ID for registered voters (RV)
Republican 28
Democrat 35
Independent 33

Race/Ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic 75
Total Non-White 23
Black 11
Hispanic 9
Asian 1
Other/Mixed race 2

These numbers look reasonable to me. Note also that Newsweek lists its series of polling data from past months (and years) for comparison. Stand alone polls mean nothing, and in context of other Newsweek polls this one is NOT at all an "outlier."

P.S. Why use phrases like "second-to-crap?"

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carl29:

Newsweek Poll
Obama and God
Princeton Survey Research Associates International

Final Topline Results
(7/11/08)
N = 1,209 registered voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 3
Interviewing dates: 7/9-10/08

1037 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
315 Republicans = 315/1037= 30%
324 Democrats = 324/1037= 31%
357 Independents = 357/1037= 34%

896 White
124 Non-White
492 Men
545 Women
169 18-39
384 40-59
444 60+

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Undecided:

Today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll: Obama 43% to McCain 43%, and with leaners it is Obama 47% to McCain 46%.

This is the first time that both have been tied since June 3 when the Democratic primaries ended... as well as the first time since then that McCain is above 45%.

The race is tightening but no one seems to have put their finger on why as of yet.

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carl29:

Newsweek Poll
June 2008 Political Questions
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Methodology Statement
(6/20/08)
This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from June 18-19, 2008.

896 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
231 Republicans = 231/896= 26%
324 Democrats = 324/896= 36%
307 Independents 307/896= 34%

741 White
139 Non-White
423 Men
473 Women
167 18-39
336 40-59
366 60+

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carl29:

Some numbers:

Gallup from July 11:
McCain 42%, Obama 48%

Rasmussen from July 11:
McCain 42%, Obama 43% NO LEANERS
McCain 45%, Obama 47% WITH LEANERS

The same day two different pollster have McCain and Obama statistically tie, 1% or 2% advantage. The other pollster has Obama with a 6% advantage, outside the margin of error.

Any explanations?

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carl29:


NEWSWEEK'S POLL IN JUNE
As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
Total RVs
22 23 Republican
36 38 Democrat
37 35 Independent
3 2 No party/Not interested in politics
* * Other party (VOL.)
2 2 Don't know
100 100

35 36 Total Republican/Lean Republican
53 55 Total Democrat/Lean Democrat

In June Newsweek found a 19% party advantage for Democrats, way too big of a gap.

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Undecided:

Scroll down and look at the questions as follows:
D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a
Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?

RVs
28 Republican
35 Democrat
33 Independent

42 Total Republican/Lean Republican
47 Total Democrat/Lean Democrat

You used the raw data. The Newsweek poll is weighted similar to Rasmussen.

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carl29:


NEWSWEEK'S JULY POLL
As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
Total RVs
25 28 Republican
35 35 Democrat
33 33 Independent
3 1 No party/Not interested in politics
1 1 Other party (VOL.)
3 2 Don't know
100 100
39 42 Total Republican/Lean Republican
48 47 Total Democrat/Lean Democrat

Abracada!!! Last month there were 19% more democrats/democratic-leaning voters in the electorate; however, this month it is just 5% more democrats/democratic-leaning in the electorate. WOW!!! This is such a finding. Why don't they write an article about this: THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY LOSES SUPPORT DRAMATICALLY AMONG AMERICANS VOTERS!!! Jesus, a 14% different in a month deserves some fuzz.

So, the democratic party loses its previous party ID advantage by 14%, and all of the sudden the democratic nominee loses 12% of support compared to the previous poll. Um... I wonder why this is.

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carl29:

According to Rasmussen:

July 1, 2008
Republican Democrat Other R - D
Jun 31.5% 41.0% 27.5%
May 31.6% 41.7% 26.6%
Apr 31.4% 41.4% 27.2%
Mar 32.1% 41.1% 26.8%
Feb 31.8% 41.5% 26.7%
Jan 33.1% 38.7% 28.2%

According to Rasmussen there is a 9.5% gap between Republicans and Democrats, not 19% like Newsweek in June or 5% like Newsweek in July.

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Undecided:

Yes... these are "daily" tracking polls that show trends within the polls themselves, i.e. Gallup trend or Rasmussen trend.

Regarding Gallup daily tracking: The previous three days (July 8, 9, 10) were Obama/McCain respectively...46/44, 46/44, 46/43.

Rasmussen (leaners) same days: 49/43, 48/44, 48/45.

No significant difference.

I offered today's Rasmussen poll number, but Gallup will not be ready until after 10am PST.

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carl29:

My problems with Newsweek are these:

Newsweek "reconsidered" its party ID distribution from June to July but did not come forward with it. Why not saying: Well, last time we had a very democratic leaning sample; however, this time we made sure not to make the same mistake. This time our sample is more even-handed with just 5% difference. This is information is not irrelevant; this is actually the center of the poll.

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Undecided:

OKAY... now you have switched to "leaners"... which is an ever changing group and includes Independents who are not loyal party idealogues.

Note that those who consider themselves belonging to a certain party as opposed to those who "lean" is only a difference between June and July of -3% Democrats, +5% Republicans, and -2% Independents. Not out of line at all.

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Undecided:

The Gallup daily tracking poll today is Obama 47% and McCain 43%.

The narrative states that today's numbers "exactly match the averages for each candidate over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking" and notes that Obama holds a "modest advantage."

Similar to results for the Newsweek poll which calls it a "statistical dead heat" which in context of a singular poll is a good description.

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kingsbridge77:

Why do Obama supporters criticize the previous Newsweek poll NOW, but failed to say a word about it when it first went public?

Go ahead. Go back to pollster.com's article and you will see that most Obama supporters defended the previous Newsweek poll. When Bloomberg came up with a similar double-digit leads for Obama, they said, "see, I told you Newsweek was right!"

They rationalized Newsweek's 15% lead for Obama until now, when they see it necessary to pooh-pooh Newsweek now that Obama's lead has shrunk.

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kingsbridge77:

The race is tightening but no one seems to have put their finger on why as of yet.

Could it be his move to the center? Or his flip flops?

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carl29:

I think that the fact that they all of a sudden changed from a 19% party advantage for the democrats to a 5% without giving any explanation is just plain irresponsible. Furthermore, no one from the magazine, Newsweek, is writing about this dramatic change is party ID: AMERICANS VOTERS ARE LEAVING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS DROVES!!!

As a political junkie myself, I find this to be the most surprising finding in the poll. How is it the republican party is amanzinlgy rapid gaining supporters when everything is going so wrong. I mean, this is just a miracle!! I think that the republican party is not in such a bad shape when they are making such gains in so little time. I think this phenomenon deserves at least an article in Newsweek.

I would have like to see the generic democrat or republican question. So sad they it seems that they didn't ask for it. But man, again, this is just amazing!!! From a 19% deficit to a just 5% disadvantage is fantastic!! I think many people in the republican party should breath a little bit easier after this. Americans seem to be embracing the republican brand.

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Undecided:

I agree with kingsbridge77. This is a tight race by almost everyone's assessment. I can understand the excitement by Obama supporters over the previous Newsweek poll, but as I remember many pollster pundits took a cautionary view of the numbers. The most they would say is that it indicates "energy and excitement" for Obama, which was sure to wane as the general election season went on. They pointed out other future jumps in the polls for Obama such as after the Democratic convention and after he announced his VP choice, but then again warned what is important is to see if Obama can keep those numbers up... and probably not if history is also prophecy.

It is like everyone thinking/remembering that JFK won by a landslide in 1960, but in reality it was a close contest and JFK barely squeaked by Nixon.

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carl29:

Google my "name" and see that this is what I said when the previous numbers came out:

"I think this poll is a kind of outtie, but anyway, what a great numbers. I think that Obama's numbers are more close to reality than McCain's, why? USA TODAY/GALLUP has Obama at 50%, IPSOS also has Obama at 50% as well; however, McCain numbers in this poll, Newsweek's poll, are way DOWN to me."

I think that more or less Obama's numbers have been in the upper 40's and McCain in the lower 40's; however, a poll with McCain in the 30's, even the upper 30's, is just hard to believe.

I, again, think that this poll is an outlier because it doesn't show the real party ID gap, which almost everyone believes is around the 10%. I hope Newsweek gets its act together in the near future.

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Undecided:

Is a "drove" more or less than 5%?... the difference in Democratic self-identification between the June and July Newsweek polls.


In response to kingsbridge77... On several comment sections on the WEB I found many unhappy with Obama's FISA vote as well as his pandering (or reaching out) to the evangelicals. Some say they will still vote for him but will not donate to him, while others say they will now withhold their vote.

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carl29:

To me having 14% of the electorate changing its mind about either party in 1 MONTH is just amazing!!!

I mean last month Newsweek found that on the one hand, just 36% of the American electorate was either in the GOP camp or leaning towards it, and on the other hand, 55% of the electorate was either in the democratic camp or leaning towards it. Things looked good for the democrats; however, one month later things are very, very different.

Now, the democratic support dropped from 55% to 47% and the republican support surged from 36% to 42%, a 14% swing against the democrats. This is the GOP dream come true: less democratic support and more republican support. Guys, this is huge!! I think this bolds very, very well for the GOP. To me this is the big story out of this poll. This trend discovered by Newsweek is just a blessing for the GOP. I am extremely impressed!!!

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brambster:

Clearly the differences for Newsweek over their last poll is the party registration data, which was enough to move the poll this much on it's own, but also the independent vote, which swung wildly behind McCain after favoring Obama.

So maybe while party ID weighting ain't so great, not having enough weighting of various factors are clearly providing too much swing between polls.

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carl29:

I am more than never in love with American politics- keep in mind that I am born and raised in latinamerica. This is my first time voting for president since I became US citizen on June 13th, 2006. So, no wonder why I am paying such close attention.

I think that "conventional wisdom" used to tell me that the party in power suffers when things go wrong in the country, at least that happens in my country of origin. However, the GOP is making tremendous gains. I mean, gaining 6% more support in party ID in 1 month, in spite of the economic downturn, is just wow!!! I am really impressed by the way Americans react in these situations. The more things go wrong with the republican party in power, the more americans identify with it. I love it!!! Just in America!!

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Undecided:

Wow... carl29....Thanks for dumping on ALL Americans because your chosen candidate is not thumping his opponent. Why don't you rethink that stance? And if you still believe it, please keep it to yourself.

This is a tight race because of the candidates themselves and NOT the party. Generically, the Democrats would have no contest, but Obama and McCain are NOT GENERIC candidates.

And what is it that you do not understand about "leaners?" The general election is in November and this is July. Do the math... Almost 4 months. A certain percentage of people (around 30% swing voters this year according to U.S. News & World Report) will change their minds often in that time span. Some do not even make their final decision until they actually are ready to cast their vote.

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Clint Cooper:

Ahem.

Just a clarification:

The sample of the poll regarding party ID is in terms of how each individual is registered. The poll composition is clearly:

1037 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
315 Republicans = 315/1037= 30%
324 Democrats = 324/1037= 31%
357 Independents = 357/1037= 34%

896 White
124 Non-White
492 Men
545 Women
169 18-39
384 40-59
444 60+

The Newsweek poll states:

"Notes: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender,
age, education, race, region, and population density."

This is factually wrong and quite frankly laughable. Even if you include Hispanic with the white quotient of our country, you only get to 80.1% white according to quickfacts.census.gov (2006 figures).

This poll would have us believe that Asians, Blacks, Native American, and "other" make up only 12.15% of the electorate, when in fact they probably make up over 20% of the electorate as of 2008. Add to that the huge increase in interest among the black community for this particular election, and you will probably see African Americans alone make up about 13 or 14% of the electorate this year.

Furthermore, their composition of voters based on party identification is likewise disconnected from reality. They would have us believe that there is a lower quotient of registered Democratic voters this year - as compared with Republicans - than in 2004? Are you kidding me?

This poll is absolutely bogus from top to bottom. Part of the reason may stem from the idea that it is in the best interest of the media to portray a close race to drive magazine sales and ratings up. Who knows.

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Clint Cooper:

I forgot something:

This poll would also have us believe that the somewhat large age grouping of 18-39 year olds will make up only 17% of the electorate, when in fact the smaller grouping known as the 18-29 year olds will in and of itself make up around 17% of the electorate.

They also have the 60 and older group making up a whopping 45% of the electorate. Again, totally bogus.

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carl29:

Precisely because is so early in the campaign that I don't focus on the head-to-head match up between Obama and McCain, but the gains of the GOP among US electorate.

JUNE'S NEWSWEEK POLL
If you read carefully the statement in the 1 question:

Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Total RVs
22 23 Republican
36 38 Democrat
37 35 Independent
3 2 No party/Not interested in politics
* * Other party (VOL.)
2 2 Don't know

9b. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?

Total RVs
35 36 Total Republican/Lean Republican
53 55 Total Democrat/Lean Democrat

As we can see when leaners, regardless of whether they consider themselves democrat, republican or independent, were "unmasked" both parties' numbers improved; nonetheless, democrats looked like having the upper hand.

That was way back then, now this month's poll looks very, very different for the democrats.

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carl29:

JULY'S NEWSWEEK POLL
Again same question:

Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Answer in July and comparasion with June:
Total RVs
25 28 Republican...June was 23, GOP up by 5%
35 35 Democrat...June was 38, Dem down by 3%
33 33 Independent...June was 35, Ind down 2%
3 1 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.)
1 1 Other party (VOL.)
3 2 Don't kno

Now, second question in July and comparasion:

D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?

42% Total Republican/Lean Republican
June 36%, GOP up by 6% from June

47% Total Democrat/Lean Democrat
June 55%, Dem. down by 8% from June

Forget for a minute if you are with McCain or Obama or you are REp. or Dem., and tell me if this movement in the electorate against the Dem. and in favor of the GOP is not AMAZING!!! The GOP most be doing something really good that the people of this nation seems to be cozying up with them. WOW!!!

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Alan Abramowitz:

The wild swing from a 19 point Democratic advantage in party id among registered voters to a 5 point advantage in a few weeks is not plausible. Most polls this year have shown a Dem advantage of 10-12 points. The swing in candidate preference from a 15 point Obama lead to a 3 point lead is explained largely by the party id shift. Nothing has happened in the past few weeks that would explain this change and other polls have not shown such a swing. The Gallup Tracking Poll, for example, has shown little or no change over this time period. But the 3 point lead is probably closer to reality than the 15 point lead was.

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onelightonvoice:

Looks like Clint got it right and the kingsbridge/undecided lot came out looking rather clueless....yet again. Ooops.

Anyways, as someone said earlier, it is funny (just like in the primaries) how so many ignoramuses there seem to be, thinking this race is actually a "race". It only serves to raise ratings for the pathetic MSM, who live and die with viewership. This was over a long time ago, just like the primaries were over in Feb. Only the self-serving media made up this story about how it was a close contest. What a joke.

Keep "analyzing" newsweek's (and others) multiple bogus polls. In the end, that rumbling you hear is the signal of the impending landslide. But, by all means, keep deluding yourselves into thinking McCant is in this "race".

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Undecided:

Well... onelightonvoice....When are you going to give up trashing those who do not choose to trash polls because they do not favor Obama by large numbers?

The "clueless" and "ignoramuses" are the ones who somehow think all these polls are part of some large conspiracy. Polls are statistical samples and nothing more.

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brambster:

@Clint Cooper

The 2004 exit poll found 78% White voters. You have to remember that Hispanics and Latinos are sometimes identified as white.

I would guess that population changes alone might take a percent away from the white vote this cycle, but you will likely see an even greater effect with the first major party nominee being half-black and very well loved by the black community. You may also see a surge in Hispanic/Latino voters as states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are clearly in play and even leaning towards Obama (people do like to show up to support a winner, or fight in a very tight race).

So I think it might be reasonable to expect that the white vote this cycle drops to 73%, down 5 points from 2004, and if it does that, it would be a huge demographic change in just once cycle.

My point however was that Newsweek's sample, while overestimating the white vote, was not off by that much since you assumed white was just simply white Europeans.

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brambster:

@Undecided

Am I correct to assume that you are that woman formerly known as NickBerry? If so, you're one to talk.

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brambster:

@Clint (again)

Good point about the 60+ grouping and their whopping percentage of this poll. While I would imagine that exit polls under-measure this group due to absentee voting, the 2004 exit poll had the ages broken down like so:

18-29 (17%)
30-44 (29%)
45-59 (30%)
60 and Older (24%)

We are getting older as a country, but the youth voter excitement might make up for older voters increase in population this cycle. Newsweek measured this group at 45% of the electorate, and most of this change clearly came from the 18-39 group (not the exactly 18-29 grouping of the exit poll, but the same percentage without a decade of people).

It almost looks as if Newsweek didn't bother to weight their demographics this time, and maybe favored getting party ID closer so that they had similar results to the tracking polls on the bottom line.

I'm really unhappy with this poll. It's not just that they swung so many points in one month, it's that they have hardly any consistency in the demographics and that really shows that they weren't weighting properly and you can't even determine a trend from one poll to another.

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Undecided:

Is it your goal... Brambster... to harass all other posters who--
a. Do not like to be called names by other posters?
b. Do not trash polls for biased reasons?
c. Do not believe in conspiracy theories?
d. Who you infer are women or "that woman?" (Are you a misogynist by chance? Because why would gender matter?)
e. All of the above.

I believe that one is allowed to comment on the polls here without being personally targeted with disparagement. And those that dish such out should be thick-skinned enough to take the return shots.

Bottom line: Polls are statistical samples and nothing more. No reason for tossing highly offensive affronts at those with whom one disagrees.

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brambster:

@Undecided

Ok, so you are in fact NickBerry. Thanks for confirming that.

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Undecided:

The concern about the Newsweek June and July polls is legitimate. "Princeton Survey Research Associates, which conducted the poll for NEWSWEEK, says some of the discrepancy between the two most recent polls may be explained by sampling error."

But based on the available information, there is no factual basis for saying that the July poll is the error-prone sample because it does not match the June poll. (Note: Samples that produce extreme means will occur randomly from time to time.)

One can wait for the next Newsweek poll (probably next month), or one can look at all the other polls within the same time span to determine if the results appear reasonable.

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carl29:

Just as I said with the previous poll: This poll looks like an outlier to me; however, as more polls come out, we will see if this fantastic GOP surge registered by Newsweek is for real. If other pollsters notice that the Democratic party ID advantage is dropping so dramatically as Newsweek just did, the democratic party is in big trouble.

For now we just have this Newsweek poll, showing the party ID gap rapidly narrowing, with just a 5% advantage, and the Pew Research poll, showing a wider party ID gap of about 10% in favor of democrats. The bad thing is that these are the only two national polls out there showing party ID, so until the other pollsters come out with their polls we will not be able to confirm the GOP surge that Newsweek found. Again, if the GOP is surging, Oh my goodness!!!

Pew Research's numbers seem consistent with Rasmussen; however, this doesn't rule out a last minute gains with those identifying with the GOP. Let's wait but if this party ID surge is confirmed, the GOP will be opening champage bottles at its headquarters!!!

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SunnyD:

The race is tightening but no one seems to have put their finger on why as of yet.

It's not that difficult to understand. As I've ranted on different boards (yes, I know that you can't verify), if we were looking at a mild recession, then Obama wins in a cakewalk. However, people are starting to sense that something is fundamentally wrong with the economy (e.g. plummeting dollar, housing leading a recession, record high commodities); McCain benefits from the economic chaos, because of the quasi-national security undertones. Furthermore, Obama's Prius progressive attitude on energy is emotionally flawed, regardless of its substantive merits. Joe SixPack knows that not everyone can have solar panels, wind turbines, and hybrids; on the other hand, "drill, drill, drill" resonates to the average voter. Although neither candidate has fully created an economic narrative, McCain's leadership is starting to whittle at Obama's lack of experience.

Like I said, you can argue the substantive merits till you're blue in the face, but the election is won by winning the voters who wake up the first Tuesday in November and are like "ummm, I think I'm supposed to do something today..." and not fanatically online voters.

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Undecided:

Actually, McCain has a "Prius" in his plan too, but that message gets lost in the media because of Obama attacks on the "drill" component. Surprisingly, only a couple of states (California, Washington) are not on board with opening up off-shore drilling. McCain was smart to present his plan on lifting the ban as a state's decision, which fits in with the McCain/GOP principle of strong state rights.

T. Boone Pickens (oil tycoon) has a plan also which is based on natural gas, wind power and solar. He has an ad running on major networks. Check out http://push.pickensplan.com/


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Undecided:

Also about the "swing" voters. U.S. and World Report states that number to be 1/3, which is substantially more than 2004 at 21%.

Additionally, of those "swing" voters, 1/3 are leaning Obama, 1/3 are leaning McCain, and 1/3 are undecided.

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/07/10/new-poll-finds-more-than-half-of-democrats-want-clinton-as-obamas-vice-president.html

Note: And this has been my main point on these poll issues. In other words... "Swing" voters lean and switch over time until voting day... like SunnyD stated above.

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Undecided:

Good time for an update of other polls to give some more credence to this Newsweek poll:

Today's Rasmussen:
Tied-- Obama 43%/McCain 43%. With leaners Obama 46%/McCain 46%.
Favorable/Unfavorable-- McCain 57/40, Obama 54/44.
"McCain earns favorable ratings from 32% of Democrats while Obama is viewed favorably by 23% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 58%, Obama by 53%."
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Today's Gallup:
Obama 46% to McCain 43%.
"Today marks the 14th straight Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which 46% to 48% of voters favor Obama, and between 42% and 44% favor McCain. This narrow zone has given Obama a continuous, but fairly slim, lead over the two-week period."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108766/Gallup-Daily-Support-McCain-Obama-Stays-the-Zone.aspx

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SunnyD:

Surprisingly, only a couple of states (California, Washington) are not on board with opening up off-shore drilling.

Not too surprising. If you look at the state revenue numbers for this year, many states are borderline depression, with absolutely nothing on the horizon to spur growth. On the other hand, the oil and agriculture states are rolling in cash. This disparity is basically keeping the US out of an official recession.

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onelightonvoice:

nickberry/undecided - or whoever you happen to be today -

Perhaps actually READING someone's post might help you COMPREHEND their point. I've been saying for some time now that party affiliation and voter registration is what is going to be predictive in this election - and not polls. If you can't see that this is a very unique election year, then I now know why you thought hillary had a shot after february.

btw, just to educate you, once again, a four point lead in gallup is fairly significant - no matter how you spin it. Perhaps you should visit fivethirtyeight.com for some further education on national poll significance and its relation to electoral college victory.

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Undecided:

FYI... I was not addressing the post(s) by onelightonvoice... so I see no need to be chastised for reading comprehension.

I have experienced many elections (since Kennedy/Nixon) and every year I hear that this is a "very unique election year." And I am sure it is as seen through many diverse lenses.

A four point lead in any poll is NOT "fairly significant" by statistical standards when the margin of error is factored. Gallup (which is at 3% differential today) even says so....
"Today marks the 14th straight Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which 46% to 48% of voters favor Obama, and between 42% and 44% favor McCain. This narrow zone has given Obama a continuous, but FAIRLY SLIM, lead over the two-week period."


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brambster:

A 4 point lead in an average of many polls which has held since the primary season ended is very, very significant.

Nicki, as you pointed out, there's nothing really that unique about this election. Considering that Bush in his second term has ridden from 50% down to around 28% approval, a war that has grown more and more unpopular, an economy that is bade, and many are saying could be the worst since the great depression...it would be very abnormal for the US public to put a Republican back in the White House. You don't need polls to tell you that. It's both history, and it's common sense.

This election is Obama's to lose. It's certainly not a guarantee that he will win, but he would likely either need to screw up real bad, or something about him would need to come out that ruined people's impression of him as an agent of change. It pretty much doesn't matter what McCain does. He'll surely attack, and keep the polls close enough that he always has a shot, but Obama, through his own actions, will determine who wins or loses.

I see McCain just like I saw Dole in 1996. He is the sacrificial lamb in a pretty much hopeless election. We all know that Obama can rouse a croud, and the media will likely start treating him as the prohibitive leader following the Democratic convention. I'm also beting that he will chose Bayh as his running mate which will help with Hillary supporters, Mid-westerners, especially those in Indiana and Ohio.

Obama has three paths to victory in the EV. He can either win Ohio, Virginia, or 2 of 3 in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, while keeping all of Kerry's states plus New Hampshire. If the election was held today, he would likely win all three paths.

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Clint Cooper:

@Bramster@

I already took into account the fact that Hispanics are lumped with whites. Please reread my post. I said even if you include Hispanics with whites you only get to 80%. This poll has them at 88% (white plus hispanic). That's erroneous.

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Tybo:

"kingsbridge77:


The race is tightening but no one seems to have put their finger on why as of yet.

Could it be his move to the center? Or his flip flops?"

Or outright lies like FISA.
That's why you're seeing the Independents move.
Better the devil you know that the one you don't.

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onelightonvoice:

[comment deleted]

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onelightonvoice:

undecided - yup, keep thinking this isn't a unique year.....wow, that was an absolutely amazing statement - even for you.

you cite gallup- hmmmm, what did they show nationally between clinton and obama again? And how many states did obama win? Okaaay, uh-huh, allright....su. real predictive, eh?

It looks like you didn't research fivethirtyeight.com's analysis between national trends and electoral outcome. bad, bad, repub.

I like how repubs cite bogus polls like newsweek's and think there is a shift for mccain. Have nate silver explain to you what "noise" and "party id stats" mean.

As I've said many times, over and over again, party id and new voter regis (along with the ground game) will decide the outcome of this election.


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sherman:

The point being: There was no major shift away from Obama. The race has always been tight with a slight Obama lead, as the daily Gallup tracking poll has been showing for weeks. For the major media outlets to pretend that somehow Obama recently lost a bunch of support is fundamentally misleading, but it makes such wonderful news. Undecided and kingsbridge, you can leave your politics at the door. I'm an Obama supporter too, but I believe in finding the truth in the polls. I think the truth is that Obama has a slight national lead. But who cares? The state polls are the only important ones, and Obama appears to have a reasonable lead there as well.

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Undecided:

OK... sherman... you stated "Undecided and kingsbridge, you can leave your politics at the door."

So describing the Presidential race as tight or an apparent shifting is "political?" Note, that neither one of us described it as a "major shift" or "losing a bunch of support."

FYI... You should look at the Pollster, Real Politics, and 538 trend charts. All three show Obama getting a bounce after the Democratic primary ended... and then losing that temporary lead. Whereas McCain is showing gaining. How that is explained differently than a "tightening of the race" is beyond me.

It appears that if one is not an Obama "lover" that one is therefore deemed "political." Same if one is being pragmatic about the polls.

Well, you guys can participate in your Obama love-fest, but calling out others for making so-called "political" comments because they do not agree with you is rather hypocritical... don't you think? (A rhetorical question.)


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