Pew Research Center/PSRA
6/18-29/08; 1,574 RV
Obama 48, McCain 40
This poll started to be conducted 3 weeks and 1 day ago.
Posted on July 10, 2008 2:57 PM
Pew does poll over a longer time. This has its pluses and minuses. Minus, it provides a poor up-to-the minute snapshot. Plus, the polling firm can focus more on re-interviewing no answer or refusals, which can reduce non-response bias.
What interests me is the conventional wisdom that the shift in party id towards the Democrats is a consequence of disillusioned Republicans calling themselves Independents. The Independents in Pew's poll look like the classic less-engaged Independent voter on multiple measures: frequency of thought about the election, how closely they are following the election, and feelings if it matters who wins. If Republicans are shifting to Independent, they are behaving like disengaged Independents, too, which means that McCain has a tough hill to climb to bring these voters back into the Republican fold.
Posted on July 10, 2008 4:55 PM
From the Pew poll:
Independents leaning Reb: 11
Independents leaning Dem: 16
That is 53-37 with leaners
Other good numbers for Obama:
Who is most "personally likeble"?
Obama: 64, McCain: 18, Neither 3, Both equally: 12
Since 2000 Pew has never found anything similar to these numbers. The largest margin of "likability" since 2000 was Bush/Gore 48-39 in late October 2000.
For Gore and Kerry the best numbers throughout their campaigns where Gore +7 (sep. '00) and Kerry +4 (march '04)
Posted on July 10, 2008 8:06 PM
Playing the devil's advocate here:
How about the very important question of "Personally qualified to be president" McCain 55 Obama 27
The highest Gore (8 years as vice-president) got was 49% in early October 2000... and the lowest for Bush at 31%. Throw in the fact that Gore received over half million more votes than Bush and the Florida voting debacle(s) was what lost Gore the electoral votes.
Posted on July 11, 2008 11:17 AM
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