Pew Research Center
7/23-27/08; 1,241 RV
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 47, McCain 42 (June: Obama 48, McCain 40)
Interesting tidbit from the historical cross-tabs. In August 2004, voters "strongly" behind Bush were 32%, and for Kerry they were 28%, meaning the election firmed up pretty quickly, even over the summer. You were either FOR or AGAINST Bush.
This go around the situation is eerily similar to Clinton's elections in the 90s, with 24% of voters strongly backing Obama, vs. 17% strongly backing McCain (17% is a paltry number, btw)...
Looking back historically, in August 1992, Clinton's "strong" voters were at 24%, and Bush Sr's were at 14%. Similar situation in 1996 w/ Dole. Ironically, however, during both of those elections, Perot was able to steal away a lot of voters, and so because Clinton's strong voters were higher, he was able to retain support and consistently polled in the 50s.
This year, there is no credible 3rd party candidate to steal votes from McCain. So, while the "strong" voter comparisons are similar to the 90s, Obama and McCain are still polling in the 40s. What I SUSPECT will happen is that voters will eventually break for Obama after the conventions, especially given his substantial lead among strong supporters...
What do you guys think?
Posted on July 31, 2008 6:30 PM
Yes, the conventions and debates will bury mccain (no pun intended) in the polls.
Speaking about the election, that was over about 2 years ago - that's why Hillary fought like a sociopath (she knew any Dem would trounce any Repub).
Posted on July 31, 2008 6:36 PM
I definitely agree that the enthusiasm factor will pose an advantage for Obama, in terms of voter turnout as well as organizational power on the ground.
I think the tone will get very vicious in the final days, though. There's nothing more rabid than a neocon campaign wielding a kitchen sink strategy in desperation. They'll make Hillary's Ohio ads look like love letters. I also expect vote-caging to become an issue.
Posted on July 31, 2008 6:41 PM
Yup, it already has gotten bad - the repubs are already purging voter rolls, the same **** they pulled before. They really are a bunch of #@$%&$##@s. Don't worry though, we got a little something for them this time around......
Posted on July 31, 2008 7:26 PM
Mccain will win 3+ debate. Obama can give a speech, but that is about all. Undecided will break for Mccain. Just watch. By October 1, Mccain will have a 4-6 point advantage.
Just waiting for the Dems to bribe the homeless for their votes again. A few cigs for your vote anyone?
Posted on July 31, 2008 7:38 PM
After the debates, people will wake up and realize that we need someone with experience to hold the highest office in the land.
By October 1, McCain will have a 5 point lead in the polls.
Unless...........dead people are voting again and the dems bribe homeless with cigs to get their votes......oh....forgot about the tire slashing that the dems did in 2004 to prevent repubs from getting some of their elderly votes to the polls in their vans.
Posted on July 31, 2008 8:00 PM
Before this week, I believed that given the antipathy to Bush and the sad state of the economy, the enthusiasm would favor Obama. Now, I realize that the Republicans are appealing to the basest visceral impulses in the American people. That will mobilize a certain group of Americans. It has worked before and is happening again.
Plus, there's probably a little of the Wilder/Bradley effect going on in the polling.
Posted on July 31, 2008 8:31 PM
no silly predictions. but as things heat up, character flaws emerge.
mccain will stumble over maybe some more facts, obama will stumble over his mean streak. his favorite put down is 'silly'
mccain might cave and go for the conservative vp, yech.
obama might decide to run for that job too.
Posted on July 31, 2008 8:43 PM
McCain didn't even "win" any of the Republican debates -- what makes you think that someone who finished 5th from the bottom in his class, admittedly knows little about the economy, and can't distinguish between Sunnis and Shia's will "win" a debate against someone with the intellectual ability of Obama.
On every poll question about domestic policies, Obama mops the floor with McCain. The debates will give Obama a chance to articulate his positions in front of a national audience. His sheer intellect will overwhelm McCain's attempts to get nasty.
McCain is an angry old man, and it becomes more and more evident every day that he just CAN'T BELIEVE that this uppity black man had the audacity to challenge him for the Presidency. The nerve of him. Doesn't he know his place??
Posted on July 31, 2008 8:49 PM
Don't count Bob Barr's impact out in several key battleground states. He may poll just enough in states where Obama can make modest inroads to cause John McCain nightmares.
I'm in a household where 2 people voted for George Bush both times and have decided this week (after John McCain's last disasterous two weeks) they will vote for Barr this time around.
I understand Barr has enough signatures now to be on the ballot in West Virginia.
Posted on July 31, 2008 9:07 PM
I encourage you to check out the book 'How to Rig an Election', written by a GOP campaign associate.
Though I'm not conservative (and I do respect conservatives), I think jfkdem's got the right idea. The neocons have managed to restructure the GOP into an imperialist, interventionist party that's in bed with corporate dominance over the American people.
@theonlytruth: with all due respect, I think that when the GOP comes back around to real conservatism in 8 years, you might wonder why you voted McCain in '08.
Posted on July 31, 2008 11:42 PM
"I think that when the GOP comes back around to real conservatism in 8 years, you might wonder why you voted McCain in '08."
I think you have a point, theonlytruth. True believing conservatives who don't like McCain may decide to sit this one out. If McCain gets elected they will not have a chance for a candidate to their liking for at least eight years. If Obama wins, they will be able to nominate a candidate to their liking in four.
Bob Barr may benefit from this. Of course, I would love to see this happen.
Posted on August 1, 2008 1:24 AM
"theonlytruth" is a lying troll. Please don't feed the trolls. Thanks.
Posted on August 1, 2008 8:42 AM
forget the call out about mccain entusiasts, will ya?
did it ever occur to you that obama is not the only one that inspires a passionate if not bellicose fervor.
hard to take, but over half ofthe country doesnt like obama or has failed to be turned on by him so let them speak. they have the roght and dont need to be called out as trolls. that is sooooooo obamish.
try something else. maybe DIALOGUE.
Posted on August 1, 2008 10:06 AM
Maybe you need a lesson in reading comprehension. Did you even bother reading "onlytruths" post(s)? It is a childish rant filled with lies. (Yeah, like the stuff dems pulled is even on the same level of outright fraud that was perpetuated by the repubs in '00 and '04. They even made a movie about it for God's sake (Recount on HBO). It is kinda like Hitler calling Mother Theresa "evil".)
That is the behavior of a troll. Sorry, but it is.
Now, if you, like the new nickleberry/the general/thetruth, are so sure that mccain will receive any bounce after the first debate, how about a nice friendly wager then?
If you seriously think the enthusiasm for mccain is in the same universe as that for Obama, why not put your money where your mouth is?
People on this board have been predicting "a 5 point lead" for mccain by October 1. (ROTFLMAO.....hooooo-heee....oooo, my gut...hooooo heeee....okay...hooo...I'm okay)
I'll even give you big talkers great odds. 10:1, minimum $1000 put up. Any takers? No? Yeah, that's what I thought. A bunch of Republican trolls just going around spreading BS as usual.
Maybe you should watch this video if you have questions why 30% of Dems in KY support mccain or why he is close to obama in the national polls.
Posted on August 1, 2008 11:25 AM
[Post removed by request of the commenter]
Posted on August 1, 2008 2:15 PM
could someone post the email for reporting offensive comments? I can't get the link below to open.
Posted on August 1, 2008 3:25 PM
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