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POLL: Pew National Primary


A new Pew Research Center national survey (release, results; conducted 1/9 through 1/13) finds:

  • 499 registered Republicans and those who lean Republican (± 5%)

    29 McCain
    20 Huckabee
    17 Romney
    13 Giuliani
    9 Thompson
    6 Paul
    1 None
    5 Don't know
  • 621 registered Democrats and those who lean Democratic (± 4.5%)

    46 Clinton
    31 Obama
    13 Edwards
    4 Kucinich
    1 None
    4 Don't Know
    1 Refused

 

Comments
Andrew:

Pollsters are what lawyers have always been: professionals that few trust.

While Diaego-Hotline has Clinton up 3%, Pew has her up 15%. I don't know why so many people still follow polls. My philosophy now is just wait and see.

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Michael:

Well, Andrew, it's worth noting that the Diaego-Hotline and Zogby polls that showed a much-closer race than this one polled "likely Democratic primary voters", whereas this Pew poll included the 11% of registered Dems or Dem-leaning Indies who self-reported that they are "not at all likely" or "not too likely" to vote in the primary, as well as the 4% who reported they don't have a primary (DC I guess?) or refused to answer the question.

They also included the 13% who said it was only "somewhat likely" that they'd participate in the primary. They included all registered Dems and Dem-leaning Indies in their poll.

It's worth noting, as well, that the poll respondents typically over-state the likelihood of their participation in elections, so even the 72% who said it was "very likely" they'll participate probably is off some.

Let's say of the people the numbers above represent, 60% are actually likely to participate in their local primary/caucus. I don't think it's a stretch to imagine that the 60% likely voters differ from the 40% unlikely voters in a manner that reflects itself not just in willingness to vote, but also political preference.

Another way of putting it is, perhaps Clinton's lead in this poll is simply an artifact of running strongly with people who aren't likely to vote (perhaps a name-ID thing for the politically non-engaged? Seems plausible enough)

Or perhaps the likely voter screens for Zogby and Hotline are just poor.

But it's a relevant difference between the two polls, and a good reason to not make too much of the disparity in margins.

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EJP:

I wonder what percentage, if any, of the "Refused" in the Dem. poll is a result of Huffington's campaign to "say no" to polls.

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Paul:

Pew poll changes over the last two weeks: Obama +5, McCain +7, Romney +5, Huckabee +3, Giuliani -7.

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Andrew:

Thanks Michael.

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Eric:

Michael: DC has a presidential preference primary to be held on Feb 12th. Just because we don't get a vote in Congress, doesn't mean we don't get to participate in the presidential election.

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Michael:

Huh, Thanks Eric, I did not know that.

FWIW, I'm a strong advocate for giving DC full voting rights.

And Andrew, no problem ;)

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