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POLL: Pew/AP US, IA, NH, SC Democratic Primaries


Three new Pew Research Center/Associated Press statewide surveys (release, results) of likely Democratic primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (conducted 11/7 through 11/25; released 12/3) and one national survey (conducted 11/20 through 11/27; released 12/3) finds:

  • Among 467 Democrats nationwide, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (48% to 22%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 11%.
  • Among 460 Democrats in Iowa, Clinton leads Obama (31% to 26%) in a statewide caucus; Edwards trials at 19%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 10%.
  • Among 594 Democrats in New Hampshire, Clinton leads Obama (38% to 19%) in a statewide primary; Edwards trails at 15%, Richardson at 10%.
  • Among 373 Democrats in South Carolina, Clinton leads Obama (45% to 31%) in a statewide primary; Edwards trails at 10%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each.

UPDATE: Pew's Scott Keeter responds to the issue of field dates.

 

Comments
BDM:

This poll is not very current at all. State polls from Nov. 7-25th and the national poll from 11/20-11/27.

A lot has happened since that time. Their are four more recent Iowa polls than this one.

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Andrew:

I agree with BDM on the uselessness of this poll, conducted a zillion years ago. Because of this, even with a perfect methodology and sample, this poll is garbage.

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I would not be surprised to see a poll come out with Hillary ahead in Iowa. The race is highly fluid, and Obama got lucky with a couple of polls where he led within the margin.

However - this poll? A poll where interviews began nearly a month ago? Give me a break.

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hilltard:

Yeah, these polls are from way back in November!! Oh, wait a minute, let me check my calendar. Oh, it's only Dec. 3. Reality check: Senator Clinton is still beating Senator Obama 2-1 nationwide, with a close race in Iowa and by about 10 points in NH, and more in other early states. Just sayin'...it's not over yet, but don't get bent out of shape over one poll with week-old data.

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Tev:

I think the PEW/AP poll is just fine (though i am not a Hillary supporter) from a statistical viewpoint. Their polls are the most accurate and most reliable. Yes, it was done over a longer period of time (November 7 to November 25) than the other polls, which gives this poll more validity and a better longitudinal analysis. A longer field period allows to capture changing trends over a longer time. And as we see here, at least on a national level, Hillary is still in a very strong position.

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