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POLL: Post-Dispatch Missouri


St Louis Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV/
Research 2000
7/7-10/08 - 800 LV, 3.5%
(story, results)

Missouri
Obama 48, McCain 43

 

Comments
Fourth:

I really don't like this poll.

Question 1 is about George Bush. That's going to inflate Obama's numbers every time.

Question 2 asks for whom you voted in the primaries. This is going to hurt Obama's numbers more than McCain's due to the long primary fight, but how much is impossible to say. Enough to counteract the effects in the first question?

I was skeptical to begin with because this poll is the only one showing a meaningful Obama lead in Missouri. We also had 2 polls recently showing very different results. Luckily we have a site like this and 538 to keep us in perspective--this state is still lean McCain for now.

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Fourth:

Edit: I just looked at the chart here for MO and was shocked to see it within 1 point, considering this is only the third poll with an Obama lead (the others showed a 1 and 2 point edge). I guess I should say it's a tossup for the purposes of this site, and only leans McCain at 538 :)

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Rasmus:

And this poll is not yet included in the 538 averages. Will make Missouri a complete Toss-Up, with McCain +0.5 or so.

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Undecided:

Very interesting comments about the lead questions. Thanks.

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Fourth:

Rasmus,

Right now at 538 McCain is projected to win by 3.4, with a 70% chance of winning the state. One poll when there have been numerous recent polls won't move it that much...probably something like McCain by 2 or 2.5, with a win % over 60. But we'll see what happens soon I'm sure :)

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Paul:

In terms of poll averages, Pollster.com has McCain +0.7; 538 has McCain between +0.4 and +1.4 depending on statistic used; and RCP has McCain +2.5.

This is the largest Obama advantage in any Missouri poll since Survey USA Feb08.

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brambster:

Regarding the first question on presidential approval, Rasmussen always leads with this question, and they generally have a small skew to the Republican side from the average. While as Mark has pointed out, studies show that leading with presidential approval (this cycle) or other sorts of questions which can influence later questions can skew results, it does so by a small amount. The weighting of the poll and the quality of the sample itself is more likely to introduce error.

Obviously this poll is an outlier, but I doubt it's primarily due to the first question.

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