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POLL: PPIC California (8/12-19)


Public Policy Institute of California
8/12-19/08; 1,047 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

California
Obama 48, McCain 39
(July: Obama 50, McCain 35)

 

Comments
Sergei Groinka:

Slight improvement for McCain anyway... Obama is sinking.

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ca-indp:

My guess Obama is going to win CA by

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faithhopelove:

My home state. McCain is almost invisible on the ground here; Obama is everywhere.

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ca-indp:

My guess is Obama will CA by under 10 %. He will get much smaller buounce than trumpeted by his campaign after the Comedy Convention.

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ca-indp:

My home state too, and yes McCain is invisible and still Obama can't get more than 10% lead. Go figure.

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thoughtful:

ca-indp

The Obama Campaign has not been talking about any bounce in the nationals as far as I am aware.

The McCain Campaign came out with a number of 15% which is hugely unlikely.

Nevertheless, I have said be careful for what you wish for, as I think there are a lot of rich seams that are noticeable in the micro polling that the Obama campaign seem to be aware of and going after!

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Biscuit:

Obama has a 13 point lead in a Rasmussen poll conducted the day after the interviews for this one were finished. New Democratic registrations in the state had outstripped new Republicans in 2008 by a ratio of roughly 10:1 as of the May report by the Secretary of State. Several red counties could realistically flip to blue by the registration deadline on October 20th including San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, Trinity, Fresno, Mono, and maybe Madera or Yuba. Several red counties have already flipped including Del Norte and Ventura. I think the partisan movement here in California indicates a big November number for Obama.

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Biscuit:

Also the new Gallup tracking number shows a jump for Obama up to a 6 point lead nationally. They have it up over at RealClearPolitics.

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Connor:

ca-indp:

In Texas, the second most populated state in the union, Obama's behind by around 9-10%

So is McCain sinking?

Or are you unaware of the huge gap that a 10% difference translates to in the two most populated states in the country?

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Jacob S:

For people who are reading too much into this poll: look at the date that the poll was conducted. The poll was conducted before the convention AND before the houses incident. I bet that Obama currently has a 15-20 point lead in CA. Also, CA is not that liberal of a state. The state has a slight majority of liberal democrats, but there are still lots of conservative enclaves (look are how many Republican congressmen are from CA).

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Andrew_in_California:

The state is too big to conclude anything off of one poll from just over a thousand people. Look at the trends, they are the same.

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burrito:

Senator McCain, please spend some money in California ... please, pretty please ...

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kerrchdavis:

Connor,

Go easy on him. Most McCain supporters are obviously going to have trouble with basic math or any higher level thinking in general.

As an example:

Economy in terrible shape + self admitted terrible economist = revived economy.

I could go on and on...

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lilyogini:

Sorry, McCain folks, but I live in the northern part of San Diego county, quite a "Red" part of the state, and I have seen so many Obama stickers, it is out of control.

Have only seen 2 McCain stickers. Yeah. California is not even close to within reach for McCain, but I hope he wastes money here.

Even up in Riverside County, where we frequent about once a month, I have not seen any McCain stickers. Saw an Obama one though! Even in the OC! It's quite exciting.

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Clint Cooper:

CA-INDP you make me laugh out loud!

The bounce is already 8 POINTS in Gallup and growing hourly. I can't wait to see the bounce open up. The Republicans are scrambling - there's talk of postponing the convetion because of Hurricane Obama, er, um, I mean Hurricane Gustav.

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