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POLL: PPP (D) Wisconsin


Public Policy Polling (D)

Wisconsin
Obama 50, Clinton 39... McCain 53, Huckabee 32

We encourage our readers to click through to see field dates, sample sizes, margins of sampling error, target populations and addition results.

 

Comments
Vin:

If this poll is even close to accurate, all I can say is "wow". Hillary is going to get a tight race in WI.

`"Our poll shows that if there was standard turnout for the primary, Obama would lead
Clinton 46-42", said Debnam. "But since we believe record numbers of young voters and
African Americans will turn out to support him, the weighted result gives Obama a
greater 50-39 advantage."`

I'm not sure how much I trust the youth vote to turn out, and I trust the independents even less. I wonder how many voters like this will show up and vote for Hillary because they view Barack as more of a threat? http://freedomeden.blogspot.com/2008/02/wisconsins-open-primary-hillary-or.html

I think it is extremely telling that Obama is leading with Clinton among women. Although I think his edge is blunted by Clinton's rabid female supporters who make sure to get out the vote.

One very peculiar statistic is that Clinton has a wide margin on issues relating to family values and morality and that Obama is within 2% points of Clinton on the economy.

All in all, very intriguing poll. As an Obama supporter, if these types of numbers are roughly accurate, very encouraging.

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Another Mike:

Wow, very different results than the ARG poll taken 2/6-2/7, which had Clinton leading 50-41. I assume that this is primarily (pun intended) a function of a different pollster and random chance, rather than a massive shift in opinion in Wisconsin in the last few days.

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Rasmus:

Wow, this is impressing.
I don�t take the Bradley-effect very seriously, and reverse-Bradley even less, so I think we can hope for an Obama victory in WI.
Does anyone know how the political markets see Wisconsin?

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Mike:

Unfortunately Intrade hasn't even listed Wisconsin or Hawaii. Intrade still has Obama listed as the favorite in Ohio and Texas, but I suspect Obama's Ohio price may fall after that Survey USA poll.

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s.b.:

This poll is a farce. The black population is 6% in Wisonsin. Its 18% of this sample, but that wasn't enough for this pollster they weighted them higher. Give me a break! Its absolutely absurd.

Does anyone on this planet actually think that Blacks will make up more than 18% of the democratic vote in Wisconsin?????

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Moishele:

I see this poll was taken before Obama's remarks as to how he reserved the right to re-assess the situation before he pulled any troops out of Iraq. I wonder if that statement will effect his anti-war vote.

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Mike:

s.b., where are you getting this? The poll clearly indicates that 12% of likely Democratic voters will be black. Considering that most African Americans are Democrats, 12% seems like a very reasonable figure.

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Mike:

Moishele, are you saying that Hillary would not consult with our military leaders and re-assess the situation before blindly withdrawing troops? If that's true, she would be a terrible commander in chief.

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s.b.:

FYI:

African-Americans: Not very big here, which is bad for Obama. They were 3% (1992) and 6% (2004) of the vote in the last two contested Democratic primaries. Obama has dominated the black vote this year.

The weighting of African Americans at some undisclosed amount more than 18% of the vote is absurd.

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s.b.:

It clearly says the sample for this poll is 18% black in the tables and also says in the write up that they weighted the black vote more because they felt the turnout would be higher, which is bizarre given that the most it has ever been is 6%.

Perhaps the 18% is after the weighting and 12% is the original but the table clearly says 18%, still absurd and threee times higher than it should be.

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Mike:

s.b., again, where did you get this > 18% figure? PPP clearly says black voters are 12% of the sample.

The 3% and 6% you indicated make sense for a general election. Since this is a primary, and most black voters are Democrats, the share of black voters in the Democratic primary should be higher than 6% (and it should be significantly less than 6% in the Republican primary).

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Adam:

@s.b.: I think you're likely very wrong. What you must remember is that even if blacks are only 6% of the population, blacks are nearly 100% democrats. If dems make up half of the population, 6*2 = 12%, which is what PPP used.

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Matthew Texas:

Hillary needs to get to Wisc. she can win that state, she needs to get on a plane with Bill and fly to Wisc. as soon as possible. Please Hillary if you read this or if anyone who reads this can get the message to her please tell her: She can win Wisc. she needs to go in person with Bill and another speaker and really push the vote. Hillary I hope this gets to you: "For it is not the swift nor the strong who wins the race... but the one who endures..." Take heart Hillary and know that we love you and Bill in Texas. I am an African American man and you have my vote and I am working for you everyday, I will never forget what you and Bill have done for the African American people. God Bless you.

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