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POLL: PPP Florida


Public Policy Polling (D)
6/26-29/08; 723 LV, 3.6%

Florida
Obama 46, McCain 44

To see how these numbers compare with the current trend, view our Florida Presidential chart here.

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

And Ras. has Obama down by 7 points in Florida. Leans McCain, but close enough that he will have to spend money defending the state.

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rdw4potus:

Wow! Look at those crosstabs. Women for McSame by 2%, men for Obama by 6? Where did that come from? I think this must just be a strange sample... Men should break for McSame at least as much as the women, given all of the other available polling data for FL (and, I guess, all other states...)

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desirous:

That poll is whack. I don't trust crosstabs with a reverse gender gap.

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Mike_in_CA:

@desirous:

The numbers are so close between the two among men and women that, with the larger MOE for the subsamples, it is safe to say that the two are roughly tied, thus eliminating any perceived "reverse gender gap." If the numbers were say 55-35 women for McCain and vice versa for Obama then I'd say, be worried. But because they are so close, and the MOE is probably ~6% for the subsamples, the gender gap is virtually non-existent. Which actually makes sense because Florida has an old population, and I bet a lot of older women are leaning McCain right now...

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Paul:

FL is absolute must win for McCain. If Obama polls well there, as above poster stated, McCain will have to spend time and money there. Senator Clinton could be very helpful to Obama in FL. She is enormously popular with the senior citizens, especially women and Hispanics.

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brambster:

The crosstabs for this poll don't seem all that out of whack to me. It does seem to slighly undersample the 65+ voters who strongly favor McCain, but I'm extrapolating from 60+ 2004 exit poll data so that's not exact. The male vote favoring Obama and the female vote favoring McCain isn't as expected, and Kerry did 3 points better with women than men in 2004. The race breakdowns look to be essentially dead on with 2004, and the party identification doesn't look skewed Democrat either at 42(D)/42(D)/15(I) whereas in 2004 it was 37(D)/41(R)/23(I). This party ID swing under performs what has widely been found to be over a 10 point swing to the Democrats since 2004.

A confirming piece of data seems to be Martinez's unpopularity. He has be upside down in favorability polls since last year and this poll confirms essentially the same.

Sampling likely voters also generally benefits McCain by a point or two, and some claim that registered voters are a more accurate measure in this election. This was a likely voter poll and so are the Rasmussen ones. This poll has almost 50% more respondents included in the sample over Rasmussen's tiny 500 LV polls. Both are IVR polls as well, and the presidential preference question is first in this poll. So one could argue that Obama might gain a point or two in a heavy turnout election.

I think this poll's results look to be trustworthy, and Rasmussen must be so divergent from PPP, Quinipiac and ARG due to their party ID weighting. That's the only way that I can see such a consistent skew from one pollster occurring.

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1magine:

Hmm, crosstabs tell a confusing story. But Rasmussen in FL resembles their polling in CO and other red/purple states. If you use Quinnipiac, PPP, ARG and others Obama has nice leads throughout. Once you figure in Rasmussen, they tighten considerably.

They are either completly wrong in the way they figure party ID weighting, or perfectly right - can't wait till after the election to see how it turns out.

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Undecided:

Hmmm. 10% undecided for PPP and 5% for Rasmussen... yet they both use automated polling. Plus Rasmussen has an "OTHER" category.

As noted above, Rasmussen weights its polls for age, race, gender, and political party.

Way too many factors for direct comparison. Best to look at trends within the polls. Except PPP's last poll was way back in March. Hope they do another one sooner rather than later.

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onelightonvoice:

And people scoffed when I said Obama was going to win Florida. Just wait......


I told you guys Florida was going blue and people flamed me. Well, we'll see what happens won't we?

By the way kids, AA population is 15.8% in Florida. Good luck McCain!!


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SunnyD:

By the way kids, AA population is 15.8% in Florida. Good luck McCain!!

Yes, versus 12.8% nationwide. But it's senior citizen percentage is 16.8% v. 12.4%.

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onelightonvoice:

Yes, and unfortunately for mccain, seniors don't vote 95-5 for him, like AAs do for Obama. Plus, expect a ridiculous turnout machine in Florida to deliver armies of voters for Obama not shown in this poll. Just check the crosstabs.

Game. Set. And Match.

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eternaltriangle:

Remember, a reverse gender gap is very possible in Florida. Why? Age is a big divide in this election. Men die younger, so old people are much more likely to be female than male. This skewed gender distribution might make a geezer state like Florida differ from the national average.

You wouldn't see that in earlier elections because age was less of a cleavage before (in 2000 Gore won among 60+ people).

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Mike_in_CA:

@eternal: i made a similar comment above. I think it's perfectly normal for the gender gap to be nonexistent due to the age issue, especially in Florida.

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jsh1120:

Imagine said:

"...(Rasmussen is) either completly wrong in the way they figure party ID weighting, or perfectly right - can't wait till after the election to see how it turns out..."

This raises a question I wonder if anyone can answer. Rasmussen currently gives Democrats an approximately 10% advantage in Party ID nationally. Does anyone know if their state level polls use this same split for weighting results or do they use a state-specific weighting factor?

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cinnamonape:

Which means Obama can attack McCain on a) the Social Security privatization issue, and b) "choice" issues by speaking out on the historical issues of older women remembering when abortion and family planning was illegal.

Another possibility is that the gender responses might be related to the large older Cuban-American population in Florida. Both men and women from this demographic likely would support McCain...perhaps watering down the gender differential that might be seen in Whites (note as well that Blacks and other Hispanics might also have approximatel the same % of males and females supporting Obama...also equilibriating the gender differentials).

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