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POLL: PPP Indiana (5/3-4)


Public Policy Polling (D)
n=851

Indiana
Clinton 51, Obama 46

 

Comments
adocarbog:

Good sign for Obama today in SUSA, PPP and Insider advantage polls as they shouw he could hit 40% or even 42% of white vote in Indiana. However all polls I think underestimate black turnout and SUSA gives HRC over 20% of the black vote and that is quite impossible.

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adocarbog:

Good sign for Obama today in SUSA, PPP and Insider advantage polls as they shouw he could hit 40% or even 42% of white vote in Indiana. However all polls I think underestimate black turnout and SUSA gives HRC over 20% of the black vote and that is quite impossible.

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THE ZOGBY POLL AND EVERTIME HE POLLS IN PRIMARY AND NOT CAUCESSES HE IS OFF BY 10-20 POINTS LIKE OHIO CALIF.,NEW HAMpHIRE- AND WHEN IT COMES TO PRIMARIES ARG AND SURVEY USA USAULLY GET IT RIGHT THEY BOTH POLLS WERE DEAD ON IN CALF. NEW YORK OHIO AND FLORIDA!!! SO SURVEY USA AND ARG GET IT RIGHT IN PRIMARIES AND ZOGBY only IN CAUCASES---- imagine zogby said obama would win ohio by one point!!!NEW JERSEY AND MASSETUSSETTS, ALSO SURVEY GOT EXACTLY RIGHT,ZOGBY WAS OFFIN NEW JERSEY BY 10 POINTS AND IN MASS. HE WAS OFF BY 12 POINTS.

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Jordan Davies:

a note to marksynder

If you recall Zogby was off by .5% in the PA primary poll.

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PPP POLE WAS ONLY RIGHT IN OHIO, BUT PENNSYLVANIA, THEY WERE OFF BY 15 POINTS, AND THEY WILL BE OFF IN NC BY ABOUT 10-11 POINTS,SURVEY USA AND INSIDER ADVANTAGE THE POLLSTERS IN THE BUSINESS WILL ONLY BE OFF BY 5 OR 6 POINTS IN NORTH CAROLINA, 5 MORE POINTS IN HILLARYS FAVOR!!!

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adocarbog:

marksynder
do not discount PPN in NC. They are based in NC and poll it all the time.
HRC should be worried because Obama keeps getting 40% of the white vote lately in almost all polls with some whites undecided. He needs 43% white vote in In to tie/win and only 26% of white vote to win NC. 40% of whites for Obama means 57%-43% for Obama at the mimimum.

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Suggesting that this or that pollster has a perfect score is just bull.

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Shadar:

marksynder, can you please learn how to capitalize properly. When you learn how I will read your posts, until then I just skip right past them.


The polling is looking very good for Obama. The question is just how much momentum he is picking up and what is causing it. If it's the gas tax then the numbers will shift a lot more as Hillary really dug herself a deep hole this weekend with it.

Guess tomorrow will tell the full story.

My current guess is a 15 point win in NC for Obama and a 5 point win for Hillary in Indy.

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Let's take ARG:

PA: The day before the primary ARG released a poll with Hillary at 56% and Obama at 40%, a 16% spread for Hill.

Result: Hillary 54.5 Obama 45.4

SC: The day before of the primary ARG released a poll with Hillary at 36% and Obama at 39%.

Result: Obama 55% Hillary 27%

Virginia: The day before the primary ARG released a poll with Obama at 57% and Hillary at 40%.

Result: Obama 64% Hillary 35%

Wisconsin: The day before the primary ARG released a poll with Obama at 52% and Hillary at 42%.

Result: Obama 58% Hillary 41%

These are just some examples of the "accuracy" of ARG. It seems in more that one occasion ARG either overestimate Hillary's support and/or underestimate Obama's.

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Mike_in_CA:

adocarbog,

just one note, if Obama got 40% of the white vote in NC he would win with 59-60% with AA turnout at 40%. Let's hope/see!

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jac13:

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that Indiana will be close -- 1 to 3 points -- and with the right AA turnout, Obama could win it. If the networks pronounce it "too close to call" (as opposed to "too earlyto call") at poll-closing time, it could be a long and not very good night for HRC.

I agree that NC looks like another solid southern Obama win -- more than 10 points.

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Tragic Chix:

PPP has been quite solid throughout the process, despite its PA disaster--it was the pollster closest to the real margins in Wisconsin and South Carolina. It wasn't bad in Ohio and Texas, and was very strong in New York.

As for Zogby ever being accurate in primaries, he did fine in Texas (Survey USA had Obama +1), Pennsylvania (Clinton +10 Zogby, Survey USA HRC +6), and Missouri (Obama +3 v. Survey USA Hillary +11).


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MISSOURI SURVEY WAS THE ONLY TIME IT WAS OFF, AND THAT WAS BECAUSE CLARE MCKASKILL, WAS IN RURAL AREAS ALL OVER THE PLACE CAMPAIGNING, FOR HIM, AND BITTEGATE AND WRIGHT GATE HAD NOT SURFACED, EVER SINCE BITTERGATE AND WRIGHT GATE. USA SURVEY IS RIGHT ON THEMONEY AND EVEN BEFORE THAT THEY WERE RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!

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Cristobal:

Hey!! Pollster is a NO SPIN ZONE. Can we all discuss the numbers and cross tabs and demographics as non-biased political pundits. So To "Mark Synder" your last comment about Claire McCaskill (you misspelled her first name) showed that you are biased and not making coherent and clear statements about the accuracy of a poll but making excuses about why you think a poller misjudged their polling methods. I dont have any problem with discussing errors in polling methodology, but when you bring up something as irrelevant and rediculous as the poll was off because a politician was on the campaign trail...you should seriously think before you make absent minded excuses for pollers. You could use that argument to say that Obama was going to win PA because he had the larger volunteer base. Just watch your bold and thoughtless statements on here b/c you will have a lot of people barking at you for those kinds of comments. I support Obama, but I think Hillary will win by 6 in Indiana and Obama by 12 in North Carolina. Great Comment "Adocarbog!!!" on the 1st analysis!!

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marksynder:

ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AT THE FACTS SURVEY USA IS THE BEST IN THE BUSINESS JUST CLICK ON THE STATE POLLS, THEY ARE THE MOST ACCURATE,SURVEY USA, AND NOW THAT RIGHT NOW BREAKING NEWS OBAMA PAID OFF HEAD TEAMSTERS FOR THEIR ENDORSEMENT,HE SAIDS IT IN HIS OWN WORDS,HILLARY WILL WIN INDIANA BY 15-18,AND SQUEEK OUT NORTH CAROLINA BY 3 BECAUSE OF THE GASOLINE THING, BITTERGATE, JEREMIA WRONG, AND NOW FOR PAYINGOFF THE HEAD OF THE TEAMSTERS FOR THEIR ENDORSEMNT,HUGE NEWS1!!!!

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Bluecity:

to marksynder:

Wake up from your sweet dream and face your nightmare starting tomorrow. As for me, my dream keeps on rolling tomorrow, next week, next month and the next 8 years with Obama as president.

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Pat:

@marksynder:

I think you are kind of lost. This is not the same typical blog that your type would visit to spread your accusations of pollsters and candidates. Make intelligent comments or just go away.

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Tybo:

marysnyder, Obama supporters pretending that they aren't are easy to spot.
Please stop.

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