Public Policy Polling (D)
Obama 48, McCain 39
Sen: Levin (D-i) 54, Hoogendyk (R) 32
This is the first MI poll since 6/9. Rasmussen had Obama up 3 in that poll.
The AA breakdown is surprising (76/18). Also, Obama leads among men, women, in every age category, and among independents. It seems like McCain can close the gap in MI by going after constituencies that seem to support him in other polls (men, indies, older voters). But he may have some work to do.
Assuming this poll is accurate though, it does raise the question: in which Kerry state can McCain play offense that is not a long shot for McCain to win?
Posted on June 25, 2008 1:59 PM
Seems that the Great Lakes/Rustbelt regions have been slanting Dem since 2006 with House and Senate gains in these states. In fact, Indiana had more Dem pickups in 2006 than any other state.
I believe that McCain will be considering this carefully when choosing his running mate. A good pick might make a difference in these states. Michigan is one of the reasons why Romney is the favored pick for McCain, and I'll bet that he plays better in the rest of the region than most of the other's that ran, but of course there's more than just those guys.
If I was Obama, I would choose Indiana former Governor and current Senator Evan Bayh, who's father was also the senator of that state. His calm definer, slight accent, and straight forward way of talking matches well with Obama while also appealing to voters from Pennsylvania to Missouri and beyond. Bayh is probably interested since he filed for an exploratory committee but quickly backed out. He was also a strong Hillary supporter, though not divisively so.
I think that Obama's biggest mistake would be to choose a military man in order to help him with a perceived weakness because it would do nothing more than highlight it. I think that McCain's biggest mistake would be picking a southern conservative because he doesn't need help in the south (it will fall well after the real tipping point), and while he helps with the conservative base, they aren't likely to stray very far and it won't help with moderates and independants to go out and prove how conservative you are (now).
Posted on June 25, 2008 5:50 PM
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