Public Policy Polling (D)
7/2-5/08 - 723 LV, 3.6%
McCain 47, Obama 44
There are those that may find polling over a three-day national holiday anomalous..but I think that on occasion it's a healthy thing to mix up the methodology to see if there is robustness to ones sampling. For example, does the weekday sampling tend to over-represent those who stay at home, or who have time to participate in a poll on their cell-phone at work?
That said the PPP survey suggests a very close race, as has most surveys of Missouri starting in May.
Even more interesting are the down-ticket races. In the Missouri Governors race Jay Nixon (the Democrat) leads Hulshof (R) by 47% to 37% (Undecided 15%). If the Republicans run Sarah
Steelman, it's closer. Nixon -44% to
Steelman's 39% (Undecided 17%). But crosstabs show that Steelman's greater support comes from Democrats and and Independents who likely won't be there to support her in the Primary.
Kit Bond has an abysmal job performance rating for a local incumbent Senator? Only 39% Approve and 33% Disapprove
Oddly, a whopping 27% appear to be incapable of drawing an opinion about the longstanding Senators performance!
If Bond ran against Robin Carnahan for US Senate in 2010 it would be a statistical toss-up 44% to 42% with 15% Undecided.
Posted on July 9, 2008 11:31 PM
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