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POLL: PPP North Carolina


Public Policy Polling (D)

North Carolina
McCain 43, Obama 40, Barr 6... McCain 39, Clinton 34, Barr 6
Sen: Dole 47, Hagan 39
Gov: Perdue 43, McCrory 39

 

Comments
axt113:

time to donate money to the Bob barr campaign

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BLeigh82:

Very interesting. Maybe NC is in play for the Dems this year afterall. We'll see though, it is very, very early and I don't know if Senator McCain has even been to the state yet.

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carl29:

Isn't this exciting. Noticed this: The poll has 20% AA. What % of the electorate was AA at the polls in North Carolina in 2004? 27%. So, If this poll has Obama 3 points behind McCain with a AA turnout of 20%, what would be the outcome if it use 27% of AA turnout as it was in 2004, not taking into account that if Obama is on the ballot this Nov., AA's would come out to vote in droves.

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carl29 is correct. Additionally, this poll show Obama getting only 72% of the AA vote. If AA turnout is close or exceeding 30% and Obama gets the 90% of those votes, which he will, then North Carolina is going blue in November.

BTW, McCain has spent time in North Carolina, and it looks like he'll be spending much more time and money trying to defend what would normally be a reliably red state.

The blue wave that started in 2006 is going to continue from the presidential campaign on down the ticket.

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carl29:

Good point JWHICK !!! That 72% doesn't look right.

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Uri:

You guys do realize that there is such a thing as a black republican, right?

I seriously doubt that more than 80% of AAs in NC are registered democrats.

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Snowspinner:

Uri - Kerry did better than 72% with African Americans - he got 88% nationwide, and 85% in North Carolina.

There may be black Republicans, but I don't think anybody seriously thinks Obama is going to do worse than Kerry among African Americans.

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RS:

@Uri:
FYI, in 2004, as per a CNN exit poll, African-Americans were 26% of the NC vote. They went 85-14 for Kerry.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html

Snowspinner beat me to it, but the link's here if you want :-)

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carl29:

Dear Snowspinner: The reality is that 90% of AA's vote democrat. This is exactly the reason why Hillary's dream of stealing the nomination from Obama is just a dream. AA's are so loyal to the democrats that no way the party would have slapped them in the face. I'm not AA, but when I see their faces and the excitement that for the first time in centuries these people will have the chance of voting for an AA for the highest office in the land, it just brings joy to my heart.

Here is some information: In North Carolina in 2004, John Kerry got 85% of the AA vote. Do you really think that Obama will get less than 85%?

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Uri:

I know the results from 2004, thank you very much. Note that I said "registered democrats" (who're likely to stay with the party).

And yet I am saying that I am not sure that it's going to be similar. It may be much higher for Obama (very likely) but it is also possible that it will be lower because:

- The proportion of republican AAs seems to increase with time, at least that is my impression here in PA.
- Bush seems to be more antagonistic to AAs than McCain is, I'm not absolutely sure why, but AAs that I talked to don't hate him as much.
- There may be a minor backlash among more radical AAs if Obama continues to veer away from these sources, and all evidence suggests that he is going to do so (Wright, Trinity church, etc.)

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carl29:

Uri believe me: No one doubts that AA's are going to almost unanimously come out for Obama, and in huge numbers. The question could be whether the democratic white vote will come out with enthusiasm for Obama but the black vote, there is no doubt. I remember that before North Carolina there were a whole sort of ideas that maybe Maya Angelou's support of Hillary in a TV Ad would peel off some AA's away from Obama. The night of the election came out, the results were in and again Obama gathered more than 90% of the AA vote. This result is by no means a rejection of Maya Angelou from AA who adore her. It is just an embracement of Obama as one of their own.

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Louis:

Of course it is highly unlikely that in November Barr will get anywhere near 6%. So this poll is rather meaningless. Remember also that it was the Jesse Helms election in NC that much of the supposition about white people being actually less likly to vote for a black candidate, then they admit to a pollster is based on.
If Obama wins NC the election will be a landslide. This is possible but nothing indicates it with any certainty yet.

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thisniss:

Another note about the PPP poll: it's overrepresenting *both* dems and repubs, and underpolling independents based on NC registration/voting trends. 33% is too high for current Repub registration - it's down below 30% (I think around 29-30% the last time I checked). Dems represent closer to 42%, versus the 45% polled. So that's 3% too high for each party, where Independents are polled as only 16% of this sample - and they now comprise closer to 22% of the electorate here. This is important because the Indys (or "unaffiliated voters," as we're called in NC) are breaking more heavily for Obama than McCain.

You can't just split the "extra Independents" between the two parties equally and call it a representative sample. That seems like a potential skew to factor when reading this poll - as does the fact that PPP consistently overpolls the 65+ voter bloc.

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