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POLL: PPP North Carolina (4/26-27)


Public Policy Polling (D)

North Carolina
Obama 51, Clinton 39

April 26-27, n=1,121 LV, margin of sampling error 2.9%

 

Comments
Mike_in_CA:

Already voted: O-63, C-31. That's the most telling number in this poll. AA vote at 33% seems low. I still see this as a 20-pt win. His news has been just absolutely dismal this week and he just got to NC to campaign today.

These numbers will go up.

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RS:

Among the 12% unaffiliated, Senator Clinton leads 47-41... Interesting. In the earlier, pre-PA SUSA poll, non-Democrats (also 12%) favored Senator Obama 59-37. So did PA change things...?

The SUSA poll also had African-Americans at 30% of the electorate. One thing I have come to trust is SUSA's demographic breakdown. So PPP may actually show a little higher Af-Am turn-out. We'll have to just wait for SUSA's next NC poll.

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RS:

Following up to my previous post:
Comparing apples-to-apples, PPP's previous NC poll (Obama 57-39) had "unaffiliated" favoring Senator Obama 51-38, while the latest PPP poll says unaffiliateds go for Senator Clinton 47-41. So there's definitely some movement there...

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airhawk86:

yeah 33% african american turnout my actually be high based on the percentage of AA in the state, compared to other states that have gone recently 28-30 seems more likely.

I dont like this for Obama, just becuase PPP over surveyed him in PA, and they had him up by 26 in their last poll.

So either PPP fixed their polling, or it might be closer than this. I agree with the last guy I wanna see what SUSA says.

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Rasmus:

@ RS:
Sampling Size: 1,121
Unaffiliated Voter: 12%= 135
Margin of Error of the Subgroup: 8,5%

Everything explained?

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RS:

@Rasmus:
Senator Obama's share of the "unaffiliated" in PPP's polls went from 51% to 41%. Sure, you could dismiss it as random noise, but if it results - as I think it has - in a drop in Senator Obama's lead from 18% to 12%, that is a serious issue, and something to keep an eye on.

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brooklyn137:

How can 5% of the undecided voters have already voted?

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brooklyn137:

On the crosstabs:

How can 5% of the undecided voters have already voted?

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