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POLL: PPP North Carolina (7/23-27)


Public Policy Polling (D)
7/23-27/08; 823 LV, 3.4%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
McCain 47, Obama 44, Barr 3
(June: McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 5)

Sen: Dole (R-i) 49, Hagan (D) 40, Cole (L) 4
(June: Dole 51, Hagan 37)

Gov: Perdue (D) 46, McCrory (R) 37, Munger (L) 6
(June: Perdue 42, McCrory 41, Munger 5)

 

Comments
carl29:

This race has stayed very stable month after month and poll after poll. One surprising thing in this poll is that Obama is getting about a third of the white vote, which is extremely good since Kerry just got 27% of it. PPP have the AA turnout at 20%, which is pretty low compared to 2004 when AA where 26% of those at the polls. I don't know if Obama will be able to carry NC in Nov.; however, I think he will get as close as any democrat has gotten in recent elections, which will be good for other democrats on the ballot, especially Hagan and Perdue. Not to mention making McCain spend money and time in this otherwise "secured" ground.

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Uri:

Both NC and VA had a lot of demographic changes these past 4 years, mostly among populations that tend to be be politically involved and dem so the impact is multiplied, that may account for the few percentage points among whites.

I think Obama takes NC, probably VA as well though doesn't look like he'll really need either to win.

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Undecided:

The polls need to expand the economy question (Economy and Jobs) to add the word energy or make a separate category. The GOP now see that "energy" can be their issue... probably because of the offshore drilling initiative with which majority of Americans agree.


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Undecided:

Rasmussen just published the results from their energy polls:

"Americans, Split on Which is More Important – Offshore Drilling or Crackdown on Speculators"
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/americans_split_on_which_is_more_important_offshore_drilling_or_crackdown_on_speculators

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jsh1120:

As this poll suggests, I suspect that North Carolina may be the Virginia of 2012. If Obama carries VA, the night will be over early. I'm still skeptical that he can carry NC, but if he carries both, it's likely to be close to a landslide.

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carl29:

With all due respect I don't think that in NC especifically the issue of drilling will hurt Obama, Why? Well, there are two type of Obama voters in NC, the black ones, who are overwhelmingly democrat, and the highly educated, very sophisticated, "latte sipping," liberal exilees from other states. First, the AA voters won't change their vote for Obama or any other democrat for that matter, but especially Obama in any scenario that I can imagine, second those "sophisticated, liberal" whites could actually be drawn to Obama precisely for the drilling issue. Remember that the majority of those white liberals come from states along the West Coast or the Northeast where there is a lot of environmental awaraness. In addition to being let down by McCain losing his "Maverick" seal.

P.S: I didn't mention white youth for whom environment is the number one priority, SAVE THE POLAR BEARS, THE DOLPHINS, THE WHALES!!!

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josephj:

@Carl29, It's more like "Save the humans." Conservative pundits try to frame it as a polar bear issue, and apparently, they're doing a good job of it.

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carl29:

I'm just adding some humor, joseph:-) I'm just mocking the kids. Don't you remember the scene in inconvinient truth about a polar bear? There was a scene like that?

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josephj:

Yes, I do. It was like one of those old CG Coca-Cola ads, but with an apocalyptic twist. All-in-all, I don't think it helped the film. Instead, they should have done an animation of people dying from lack of water and food, but I guess that's a little bleak.

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Undecided:

You are ignoring the military vote (active and veteran) as well as that the east coast states are more open to drilling than the west coast states. Also that McCain's position is to let the states decide if they want to keep the drilling ban... a win/win position.

McCain has been working on the environment and climate change policies long before Obama. Note also that McCain still opposes drilling in ANWR. In other words... McCain is NOT an anti-environmentalist. But what it really comes down to these days is the price of gas... even for the ideological youth.

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Undecided:

Do you mean "conservative" or "conservation" pundits? It seems like the environmental groups like to focus on the flora and fauna (of course ignoring that we are also fauna in the global sense.)

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Jacob S:

Nothing much has changed for Obama/McCain. Hagan is creeping up on Dole, which is a bad sign (for Republicans). In my opinion, NC is one of the LEAST vulnerable seats for the Republicans, among the 12 or so that the Dems are contesting.

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carl29:

Did I mention that McCain was losing the military vote? I don't think so. Did I mention that his new position supporting drilling could take his toll among white liberals? It could or could be something else. The reality is that compared to last month, Obama is improving among democrats, 67% vs. 76%. Could it that be that more and more democrats are realizing that McCain is no longer a moderate republican, the "Maverick"? It could be.

I think that in the South the underlying factor in the race will be "race." I think that if Barack holds onto the 1/3 of the white vote he has being getting it could bold very well for him. Keep in mind that not even Kerry got there. By the same token I think that more and more it becomes clear that McCain has an uphill battle among blacks. Remember all the discussion about that 16% of black vote McCain was getting in the previous PPP poll? Well, it is gone. McCain is now getting 8% of the black support, compared with Bush's 14%. I really never thought that he had it in the first place, or is there anything that McCain has said or done to drive blacks away? I can't think of anything. At least it doesn't seem like Barack is having trouble holding onto his white support.

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Mike:

I agree with the comment that NC will be the VA of 2012. VA is more along in the demographic changes that are making it Democratic. It is interesting that in both NC and VA the gap between the DEM and GOP candidates has shrunk by 8%. Bush won VA by 8% in 2004 and it is now tied. Bush won NC by 12% in 2004 and McCain is in the lead by about 4%. It is a win-win for Obama - he either wins these states and thereby wins the election or he forces McCain to spend time and money on what were solid GOP states.

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david j. cutler:

As carl29 points out this poll is incredibly encouraging for Obama supporters. Looking in even more detail at the precise numbers: Not only are only 20% of the respondents African American (compared to 26% in 2004 exit polls), but of those only 82% are supporting Obama. Kerry drew 85% African American support, and it is hard to believe that Obama is going to due WORSE than he did. Funnier still, Barr is drawing 5% support among African Americans, and only 3% support among Whites. This seems more than slightly unrealistic.

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carl29:

For the most part I think that McCain is again underperforming Bush. For example in the Triangle area Obama is ahead by 51% vs. McCain's 39%. Remember that Kerry by 52% vs. Bush's 47%. In the Mountainous region, is McCain ahead 47% vs. Obama's 44%. Keep in mind that Bush won this region 59% vs. 41%. In the Greensboro area is Obama 48% vs. McCain 46%. Remember that Bush carry this area 64% vs. 35%. In the coastal area it is Obama 48% vs. McCain 47%. Keep in mind that Bush carried this area 60% vs. Kerry 40%. I don't know if it is the drilling or something else, but for some reason Bush's support in the state is not being translated to McCain. But, let's see how things move in the following months.

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josephj:

@Undecided, I do indeed mean "conservative" pundits. By framing it as a polar bear issue, it diminishes both the global scale (rather than just polar), as well as the impact on humans. The environmental groups I'm familiar with (Sierra Club, etc.), which have previously focused on flaura, fauna and conservation, are now largely shifting their focus on to climate change.

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Undecided:

In regards to McCain... offshore oil drilling take its toll among liberals? I was not aware that liberals were planning on voting for McCain.

Please give a source on McCain losing the "military vote"... I saw one poll where the military vets were leaning toward him... and I also understand that they do not poll active military.


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carl29:

Well, at least I had not mention the military vote. If you scroll down, you will notice that the first person bringing up the military vote was YOU!! Why? I have no idea!!! But I really agree with you that those are totally for McCain, maybe blacks won't, but the rest will overwhelmingly go for him.

Second, the person bringing up the issue of drilling was again YOU!!! I just gave my opinion on the subject and its impact in North Carolina: I don't think that Obama will lose any support over it. Why? Well, he's got two type of voters in North Carolina: blacks and white liberals. I honestly don't think that any of these two groups will abandon Obama based on drilling. The blacks will come out in full force for Obama and liberals will vote for Obama over the increasingly conservative McCain. However, it could hurting McCain a little bit with some specific people. I noticed that McCain support along the coast line of North Carolina is noticeable lower than Bush in 2004, Obama 48% vs. McCain 47%. Keep in mind that Bush carried this area 60% vs. Kerry 40%. It could be that or it could be something else. We really don't know, but he is not performing as well as Bush did.

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P.S: Let me show you the cronology of your comments:

1st time the word military was mentioned:
"You are ignoring the military vote (active and veteran) as well as that the east coast states are more open to drilling than the west coast states." Undecided at 1:24p.m.

Second time the word military was mentioned:
"Did I mention that McCain was losing the military vote? I don't think so." Carl29 at 1:54p.m

Undecided, are you sure you are wearing your eyeglasses? How old are you?


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carl29:

Undecided try to orginize your ideas. You are reminding me of my grandma. She starts talking about something and then she forgets who, herself, started the conversation on the subject, then she accuses other person of having done so. Oh my God, my poor grandma!!!

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John:

I don't agree that it's the "exiles" that skew NC to the Left. If anything, the exiles are more conservative than their counterparts "back home" and surprisingly more conservative than white native North Carolinians I lived among for over 20 years.

North Carolina never had the racial problems of other Southern states; that isn't to say they haven't existed here but for the most part blacks and whites get along better here than I've seen "back home - up North" in New England where I come from.

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carl29:

With all due respect my friend John, but the "phenomenon" of migration from one state to another has had some impact in favor of democrats in different states: virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina.

This are some comment from the previous PPP poll that address that issue:

"One of the most interesting findings in the poll is that while McCain leads 49-36 among
life time residents of North Carolina, Obama has a 46-40 lead with those voters who have
moved to the state from somewhere else."

“The race continues to be tight in North Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of
Public Policy Polling. “This may not be the year Democrats win the Presidential contest
here, but the data showing Obama leading among non-natives is an indication that this
state could become bluer as more and more people move here in the coming years.”

I remember that the first person I heard talking about this type of "ideological import," from one state to another, was Karl Rove, someone who we all agree understands a lot about politics, in an article in Newsweek. Although the article was not on North Carolina precisely, he was explaining the reason why democrats have a better shot this time around in fairly republican states like Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.

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Paul:

North Carolina at McCain +3 is similar to RCP and 538. Over the last four national elections, difference in DEM voting between NC and VA has been VA +2 average. So a close race in NC, although could very well be a McCain win, could project a very tight race in VA.

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Lechuguilla:

Another interesting observation about this North Carolina poll is that it tends to contradict the Gallup-Gallup fiasco. For if McCain were actually surging nationally, one would expect him to be surging more or less everywhere, including NC. But the NC poll of McCain +3 suggests that the presidential race is stable and has been for at least a month.

Further supporting this conclusion is a couple of polls from Strategic Vision which shows Obama +9 in Pennsylvania and +11 in Washington. Again, if the Gallup-Gallup poll-poll was credible, we would expect a much closer race, both in Penn. and in Washington.

Lech

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