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POLL: PPP North Carolina (8/20-23)


Public Policy Polling (D)
8/20-23/08; 904 LV, 3.3%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
McCain 45, Obama 42, Barr 4
(July: McCain 47, Obama 44, Barr 3)

Sen: Hagan (D) 42, Dole (R-i) 39, Cole (L) 5
(July: Dole 40, Hagan 40, Cole 4)

Gov: Perdue (D) 43 , McCrory (R) 38, Munger (L) 4
(July: Perdue 46, McCrory 37, Munger 6)

 

Comments
Andrew_in_California:

Interesting to see Dole down.

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Mike_in_CA:

wow. this Senate polling is huge. I always knew Dole was very vulnerable, and now a series of polls have shown that NC-SEN race very very tight. The fact that Dole is down is probably just statistical noise, but this thing is a nailbiter. I suspect it will probably help the top of the ticket as well. Remember -- a 538.com post awhile ago said that Obama's ground game could be worth as much as 2.8%, which puts him right up next to McCain. Which way will the undecideds break is the question?

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freedomreigns:

McCain only up by three and Dole DOWN by three? What the heck is going on in NC? The DNC and Obama must be advertising its rear's off.

I wonder if maybe this poll is leaning a little too far. I know it is a D poll but PPP is generally in line with others. In this case, especially the Dole part, I scratch my head.

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sherman:

This is fantastic news for Obama and the Democrats. Except, of course, that this is a Democratic pollster so it's a little hard to put much faith in the numbers. I've read that PPP is one of the better ones as far as objectivity goes, but it is still a Dem polling organization. I do hope these numbers are correct.

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Tybo:

like i've said.

60 senate seats for the Dems... and McCain as president is the way to go.

no one sane wants an all democratic govt.

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thoughtful:

Looking do-able for Obama!

Democrats appear to be significant of the waverers and McCain's soft churnables.

An appreciable movement on McCain's side and Dem's coming home produces that landslide, indeed better than Rick Generic does!

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TheVoice_99:

no, no one educated & sane wants any republican in any office after the utter fiasco that was the last 8 years. by the way, the rest of the world agrees with that sentiment....just look at the world wide polls. only the knuckle-dragging lot here still think republicans in any form of government is a good idea.

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SullaSPQR:

I agree with The Voice 99, the Republican party has become a total Plutocracy that heralds and brings about this country's decline. If you want to see this country pick itself back up and become productive again, you should not vote for ANY Republican.

“Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear.” -William Gladstone

“All the world over, I will back the masses against the classes.” -William Gladstone

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Louis:

If the poll is accurate this could indicate an even bigger democratic landslide in the House and Senate, then already seems likely. House gain 15-20. Senate gain 4-7 and that would be a conservaative estimate. I take all polls with a grain of salt, but the weight is the important thing. When the same numbers come up consistently, then the accuracy is more likely.

One request ( which I know will not be granted.)if you want to comment on the poll,and the reasons you think it may or may not be accurate, or what you think it means feel free. But this site is not for your opinions on the candidates themselves. Please find another site for such comments or keep them to yourselves. Thank You.


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Tybo:

"I agree with The Voice 99, the Republican party has become a total Plutocracy that heralds and brings about this country's decline. "

have you looked at the democratic party?

Gore,Kerry,Barack

which one wasn't raised with wealth and privledge?

all 3 were raised wealthy..

you dems dissed the only one who pulled himself up from his bootstraps- Clinton

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TheVoice_99:

yeah right tyno. I wish we all could grow up in single parent homes and have the luxury of foodstamps.

typical repub reply. makes no sense and is irrelevant to initial comment.

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KipTin:

Good point, Tybo... about Bill Clinton. He was also grew up poor with blacks, an experience Obama "missed."

Gallup tracking poll today: McCain 46/Obama 44... McCain flipped into the lead after two days of a tie.

"It's official: Barack Obama has received NO bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109834/Gallup-Daily-Bounce-Obama-Post-Biden-Tracking.aspx

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Tybo:

". I wish we all could grow up in single parent homes and have the luxury of foodstamps."

Clinton's mom remarried, and I don't remember him ever saying he was on food stamps.

kip,I think it will take a few more days to see if there is a Biden bounce.

After all, Mastercard hasn't weighed in yet.

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KipTin:

That food stamp story about Obama is WAY overblown. His mom made choices to marry twice and divorce twice. To go to college (and collect food stamps while there). To go off to do research and dump her son off with her parents who were both VERY gainfully employed. Note that Obama's mommy graduated from Mercer Island HS in Seattle (an upper middle class neighborhood), and was mostly an academic in her adult life. Not exactly a "bootstrap" story.

Clinton's mom tragically lost her husband BEFORE Bill was born. She worked all her life, never moved away, never abandoned her son. Being "poor" in Arkansas is quite a bit different than growing up Hawaii.

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player:

The sample size was 50% democrat to 35% republican in a republican state. What is wrong with these percentages? Dole wins here.

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Tybo:

obama grew up in an upper middle class home.

His mom remarried an oil industry consultant.
when barry lived in indonesia the family had multiple servents.

After that, he was raised by his grandparents- a duel income family (unusual in those days), a bank VP, and pharm. sales rep.

no wonder he went to private elementry, private hs, two private colleges, etc.

Bill Clinton , who obama insulted and denigrated, was actually raised working class.

god forbid that obama tell the truth about his white upperclass upbringing.

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RS:

Moving on from the usual drivel and disinformation put forth by Nitpicker et al....

More to the point, though PPP is a Democratic pollster, they have women at just 55% (59% in 2004) and African-Americans at 21% (26% in 2004).

Obama's at 46% among women - like Kerry - but McCain's at 43%, 11% below Bush. McCain's also doing worse than Bush among Whites (57% to 73%).
Among 18-29, Bush-Kerry split 43-56; McCain-Obama is 38-47.

The way I see it, NC could well come down to GOTV - but if Obama's successful in getting out more women, African-Americans and younger voters, things could get really interesting - for both Obama and Hagan.

2004 exit poll from MSNBC:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5297180/

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TheVoice_99:

wow the lies by kipcrap and tyno and martx are really quite funny. stupid repubs.

too bad the elitist just recently paid off his student loans, and WAS raised on foodstamps - it is a fact tards.

mccain is the guy of 9, 10 ,11, oh who knows how many houses.....$600 shoes, and private planes.

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faithhopelove:

This poll seems about right. There are no eyebrow-raising numbers in the crosstabs. The one number that stands out is Obama's relatively poor showing among Democrats--under 70% support. On the one hand, this under-performance among Dems is good news for Obama, as it shows him with more room for growth than McCain (and party loyalty should not be under-estimated); on the other hand, this number has to alarm Obama, and it indicates he needs strong speeches from the Clintons and Biden (who has not given him a bounce) in the days ahead. One reason for party conventions is to solidify party bases.

NC remains in play. It is a second-tier pick-up opportunity for Obama:

Tier 1 ~ CO, IA, NM, OH, VA
Tier 2 ~ AK, FL, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, NV
Tier 3 ~ GA

McCain's opportunities:

Tier 1 ~ NH
Tier 2 ~ MI, MN, WI
Tier 3 ~ PA

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Tybo:

sigh,,, obama fans are just like bush fans were.

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faithhopelove:

One more note on this poll: it was automated, and therefore might not include cell-phone only voters, who are disproportionately young. Obama may have a little more support in NC than this poll indicates. Also, I wonder about the possibility that college students, who break heavily for Obama, are being under-sampled in recent polls. They are understandably pre-occupied with other things at the moment. This possibility will no longer be a concern with September polling. Anecdotally, I know a student at UNC; she reports that her campus loves Obama.

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Clint Cooper:

News Flash for Tybo:

Obama's Mama went on food stamps to send him to school. Get real.

Why don't you go talk to McCain about being raised with privelege, if can figure out which one of his seven houses he's in these days.

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SullaSPQR:

WHO CARES WHO HAD MORE MONEY GROWING UP. The point is that the GOP is a plutocracy in the true sense of the definition, which is government controlled by the interests of the wealthy. Sam Brownback may not be a scion of the wealthy (I don't know, maybe he is, don't know enough about his past), but you will note that he uses his position of power to benefit the very affluent, corporations, big oil, etc., all the while using social issues and culture warfare to fiegn that he is just one of the folk. FDR was an elite, but championed the people and was beloved by ordinary Americans while hated by his class. It doesn't matter where you came from; it matters what you stand for and what you do! And the GOP does damage to ordinary Americans' interests. Period. Enough said.

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Clint Cooper:

BTW, just so you guys all know

THE 26% FIGURE FOR AFRICAN AMERICANS FROM 2004 EXIT POLL IS WRONG!

I just want everyone to realize that. North Carolina keeps records on who votes - they show that the black vote was only 18.5% of the electorate, which means that Kerry actually got 34% of the white vote in North Carolina.

A victory in North Carolina is going to be difficult for Obama. But if he wins, it will look like this:
...................Obama...McCain...Other
White (73%).....35%...62%...3%
Black (23%).....94%...4%...2%
Other (4%)......50%...47%...3%

Which results in:
Obama 49.17%
McCain 48.06%
Other 2.77%

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RS:

@Clint:
Thanks for pointing that out, though you didn't give a link. Here's what I found:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/05/erroneous-exit-poll.html

Still, it looks like GOTV could determine NC. If NC goes Blue, we know Obama is winning big. I'd be happy with just VA, though :-)

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Tybo:

News Flash for Tybo:

Obama's Mama went on food stamps to send him to school. Get real.


LMAO!

you've got to be kidding!

it's amazing you all buy this BS


"The point is that the GOP is a plutocracy in the true sense of the definition, which is government controlled by the interests of the wealthy. "

same as the democrats.
no difference

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SullaSPQR:

Big difference Tybo. The Dems care about equality and the less fortunate; the GOP does not, and in fact, it expressly goes against their ideology of laissez faire, social Darwinism, which in practice really means the haves, including those who inheritted all of their wealth and did nothing for it, are good and are in the position they are in because they are good and "had the discpline to attain their status" and we should champion them, while the have nots are bad and are in the position they are in because they are "bad, lazy," whatever, you name it, thus they deserve to suffer and be where they are. You probably believe that too, which is why you are a Republican, and I am a Democrat.

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Clint Cooper:

Tybo. "Facts are stubborn things." -Ronald Reagan, 1981.

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Mike_in_CA:

Tybo,

You are actually flat out wrong. Obama went to private HS and private colleges purely on scholarships, grants and loans (some of which he just finished paying off in his late 30s).

Don't we WANT people to work hard in this country so they can go to good schools? I don't understand the condescencion. Maybe the whole "elite" meme thing is working... But if you truly knew about Barack's pretty solidly middle-class upbringing, ugh.

Also, do you think Meghan McCain paid her way through all of her private schools?

The policies of the recent Republican administrations have been to ENCOURAGE students to attend private schools.

Do you even know what you're talking about or are you just trying to stir the pot?

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Clint Cooper:

BTW, there is something I wanted to point out about Survey USA's Virginia poll that I thought was a little misleading.

They show Obama trailing badly in Shenandoah, trailing a little in Central, but with solid leads in Southeastern and Northern.

Now, here's the kicker. They have Shenandoah voters comprising 23% of the electorate. Now, in reality the Shenandoah region consists of five low-population counties in Northwestern Virginia which account for only 8% of the vote, but even adding in all the Western, Southwestern and some of the Southern counties, I still only got to 18% and that was being generous (2004 numbers).

You can check out the uselectionatlas.org website to confirm this. In fact, that region hasn't been growing as fast the last four years as the Northern and Southeastern sections have. If Obama ends up winning Northern and Southeastern Virginia by double digits he'll take Virginia.

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Clint Cooper:

Don't waste time on Tybo everyone. He (she?) is just regurgitating LIES. Sad, but these folks are better off ignored - they can't stand not having the attention.

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Tybo:

don't waste your time on Clint Cooper everyone.He (she?) is just regurgitating LIES. Sad, but these folks are better off ignored - they can't stand not having the attention.
S/he doesn't even know that Barack had to relabel his autobiography a "memoir" because there were so many LIES in it.

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Mike_in_CA:

Tybo, whats the matter, can't answer anything in my post? Admit you're wrong? Just switch right to ad hominems?

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cinnamonape:

Tybo- A memoir is an autobiography. Most of the factual information you take is actually clearly presented in Obama's autiobiography. He never denies that he spent several years of his life living as a middle class individual. But for a few years his mother struggled.

And despite whatever choices that Barack's mother made, the fact is that she did, for a time use food stamps to put meals on the table when Barack was growing up. As an working, low-income adult, she qualified. The fact that she didn't want to take money from her parents was, indeed, a choice. Lot's of young adults make the same choice in their efforts to become independent.

When she re-married and moved to Indonesia, Barack was again middle class. In Indonesia (and in many third world countries)the Middle Class are expected to have servants (a housekeeper and a gardener) in order to support the poorer individuals in the community. It doesn't mean that they were rich. In Indonesia hiring on other people in desperate straits is done because of a sense of social connectedness.

The wealthy in Indonesia live in a completely different world. One measures wealth in Indonesia by material goods (cars, estates, jewelry) not by how many part-time servants one takes on.

BTW She was married to Sutoro for five years. That's hardly a whole life.

And Obama certainly did receive critical support from his grandparents, who were decidely middle class. But to call two individuals living in a fairly expensive state like Hawaii... wealthy...simply because they both worked is a bit far-fetched. Hawaii's cost-of-living foreshadowed the situation that gradually resulted in the economic realities of most two-working parent families today. Without the scholarships Obama would likely not have been able to attend Punahou...and certainly not Yale.

It's interesting that Tybo would say that divorce is a "choice" that disqualifies someone from classifying themselves as "poor" or in economic crisis. Perhaps that's the new Republican line...banning the right to divorce? That's an interesting viewpoint that many women would find problematical. In fact divorce is usually recognized as the major cause of economic hardship for women.

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cinnamonape:

BTW If one actually looks at the PPP long-term data it shows that Obama has not lost any ground in Virginia this summer (and he gained on McCain from Spring) and he has also gained ground in North Carolina starting this summer.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?type=src&source_id=108

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Basil:

If, as the link asserts, Dole has fallen behind largely because of a TV ad about her ineffectiveness as a senator, one might suppose that tougher anti-McCain ads in NC would have some positive effect for Obama, as long as they are relatively fact-based (which shouldn't be too hard).

That Hagan is white and Obama less so would suggest that she's having an easier time overtaking Dole (another white woman) than Obama would have overtaking McCain, all things being the same (which they never are, of course).

It's not so much out-and-out racism these days, but more the idea that a "black" (half white isn't enough) man can't represent "white" interests, especially a black man they don't know well. Maybe Obama can overcome that, but the more traditional racists (more R's than D's) will do what they can to prevent it.

Not all southern opposition to Obama is racist, certainly. Some is the usual R vs D conflict that's more class-based, but things are changing anyway. Just look at the yellow states.

My stepfather was a flaming racist doctor in NC who kept loaded weapons around in case of an "n-word uprising". He, like a lot of southerners, flipped from D to R when ("n-word lover") JFK came along. He was one angry SOB and would happily have pulled the trigger on JFK, MLK, etc. if he thought he could get away with it.

I don't know what the current state of NC racism is, but I've spent more time in Atlanta lately, and it's alive and well there, especially with age 40+ dittohead types who would never publicly admit to it but tell lots of racist jokes with their fellow dittoheads.

Negadittoes, guys.

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Tybo:

"Mike_in_CA:
Tybo, whats the matter, can't answer anything in my post? Admit you're wrong? Just switch right to ad hominems?

.......
hey mike,,, i mimic the obama poster, and you suddenly realize how empty the obama posters is?
Score one!
Nice speech Clinton gave... now Barack needs to apologize for his campaign and his supporters.

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Tybo:

"That Hagan is white and Obama less so would suggest that she's having an easier time overtaking Dole (another white woman) than Obama would have overtaking McCain, all things being the same (which they never are, of course).
"

or it could be that Obama has ZIP experience, has run a race based and misogynist campaign, and has never accomplished anything.

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Basil:

Tybo:
Nope. It couldn't be that. Misogyny seems to be McCain's turf, not Obama's. And I don't see Obama's campaign as race-based, either. I see some opposition to Obama as race based.

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